ravensfan's Account Talk

[ravensfan]

That's some quick moves for a point and a half. A point and a half is normal market noise.

Agree that a point and a half is nothing to go running for cover over, but when I made the decision to bail, the markets were at session lows and as is typical, the close is nothing like what's going on at the IFT cutoff time of 12:00 noon.

I can live with only having 2 IFT's per month, but the requirement to have the IFT submitted NLT 12:00 noon bothers me to no end and IMHO is the biggest detriment to staying in the TSP after retirement. I just don't understand why we as government employees and military members are not afforded the luxury of trading all the way up to the closing bell like the rest of wall street...Ok, ok I'll get off my soap box now. ;swear

Of course, if we continue this downward spiral I will look back on this as a great move...

Anyway, no matter which way it goes tomorrow and the rest of the week, I'm glad to be out!

 

[burrocrat]

you got to do what you got to do, everyone has their limits and when it calls to you then you go, nothing wrong with that.

today in the market reminds me of laying there for your brazilian wax treatment and the technician says "oh, we are out of baby powder and topical anesthetic today, rrriiiiipppppp! there you go sir, 2% right off the front".

it's all just a matter of perspective though, look on the bright side. it's only 1 day into the new year and you are already doing 4 times better than all of 2015.

(sorry friend, couldn't resist. times like these it pays to keep a sense of humor, even if it is sick).

 

[OBGibby]

...but the requirement to have the IFT submitted NLT 12:00 noon bothers me to no end and IMHO is the biggest detriment to staying in the TSP after retirement. I just don't understand why we as government employees and military members are not afforded the luxury of trading all the way up to the closing bell like the rest of wall street...

​Couldn't agree more...

 

[ravensfan]

you got to do what you got to do, everyone has their limits and when it calls to you then you go, nothing wrong with that.

today in the market reminds me of laying there for your brazilian wax treatment and the technician says "oh, we are out of baby powder and topical anesthetic today, rrriiiiipppppp! there you go sir, 2% right off the front".

it's all just a matter of perspective though, look on the bright side. it's only 1 day into the new year and you are already doing 4 times better than all of 2015.

(sorry friend, couldn't resist. times like these it pays to keep a sense of humor, even if it is sick).

That's what I like about you burro, you always bring a smile to my face.

In all seriousness though, I think one of the problems I had in 2015 was that I would sustain a loss and then try to make it all back on the next trade. I made this mistake time and again throughout the year and all I ended up with was a bigger loss. With that said, I am changing my mindset to be happy with small gains that chip away at the losses. I know that's easier said than done, especially considering all the big drops we experienced last year and one big drop can wipe out months of hard work, but staying in for over 2 months was not the answer.

So thanks for the humor and let's press on...

And just to show you all is well, here is a limerick for you.

There once was a vicker from Kings
Whose mind was on heavenly things
But his heart was on fire
For a boy in the choir
Whose a$$ was like jelly on springs

 

[ravensfan]

Not sure why our TSP website hasn't posted today's closing prices yet, but I keep a few databases and found these to be interesting

The F Fund closed today at 107.97, nearly taking out the Dec low of 107.89 set on 3 December.
The C Fund closed at 2012.66, nearly taking out the Dec low of 2012.37 set on 11 December.
The S Fund closed at 993.13. The December low was 990.97, set on 14 December.
The I Fund closed at 57.82, taking out the Dec low of 58.17, set on 11 December.

I seem to remember a post last year stating that if we took out the previous year's December low in January we would be in for a negative year. If that is true, 2016 isn't getting off to a very good start.

I'll post today's Best Fund/Worst Fund chart tomorrow since the closing prices from the TSP website are so late in posting.

Good night all!!!

 

[Tsunami]

I seem to remember a post last year stating that if we took out the previous year's December low in January we would be in for a negative year. If that is true, 2016 isn't getting off to a very good start.

RF - Good memory, I'd forgotten that...I posted that back in January, post #680 in my thread.... the indicator is for the Dow, and in fact today the December closing low for the Dow WAS violated, but I'm not sure if that needs to be the closing low. Today's close in the Dow was a mere 20 points above the lowest close in December, on 12/18.
Hmm, you might have just convinced me to re-establish a short position tomorrow. Here's what I posted back in January...

From Jeffrey Saut on 1/13/14: Raymond James Financial | Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut

"Circling back to the January Barometer, every year at this time I not only address said indicator, but the “December Low Indicator” that I learned from my friend Lucien Hooper. It was back in the early 1970s, when I was working on Wall Street, that I encountered Lucien. At that time Lucien Hooper, then in his 70s, was considered one of the savviest “players” in this business. While known for many market axioms and insights, the one that stuck with me was Lucien’s “December Low Indicator.” It seems like only yesterday we were sitting at “Harry’s at the Amex Bar & Grill” having lunch when he explained it. “Jeff,” he began, “Forget all the noise you hear about the January Barometer, pay much more attention to the December low. That would be the lowest closing price for the INDU during the month of December. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!” For the record that closing low was 15739.43 and was recorded on 12/12/13."

 

[OBXTrader]

There was unfinished business in China as I mentioned yesterday. Memories are short, many TSP folks jumped in the first trading day of January and going in on that first day (except October), lately hasn't worked out that well in the short-term. Why I said if yesterday was a good day to buy, today will be as well.

Tough decision to make, but you do have a whole year to make it work from here out. My bets are usually small when it comes to TSP, but that fits in with my risk tolerance. I didn't see today as a my day to throw good money after bad. Maybe it was the perfect day, but seems like there is some unfinished business in China. If today was perfect, tomorrow should be fine too.

Although I am sitting fine in the G Fund here, in our IRA's went from zero to fully invested on December 11th as our "buy and hold" portion of the portfolio. Until the end December, I didn't think we would revisit that day anytime soon and was rather proud of picking a bottom bargain price. Surprise, surprise. No plan to exit right now as they are in 2025 target date funds. Oh well, sit back relax and enjoy the flight.

 

[ravensfan]

Tsunami,

Thanks for clarifying. Interesting that you mentioned re-establishing a short position. I spent some time yesterday evening researching how to trade in a bear market and I found lots of recommendations to short the market. I didn't really understand what that meant, but found that the key to shorting the market was to pay particular attention to an RSI reading of 20, which is basically when the market is oversold and to jump in during those periods, ride the rebound and get out quickly, (hopefully before the market goes down again). Also some of the signs of a bear market include high volatility with frequent whipsaws. (gee isn't that what we have been doing since the big drop in August?)

Sure wish I would have thought about this in early November. I may have even gotten through 2015 with a small gain.

Good luck and thanks again!

 

[ravensfan]

There was unfinished business in China as I mentioned yesterday. Memories are short, many TSP folks jumped in the first trading day of January and going in on that first day (except October), lately hasn't worked out that well in the short-term. Why I said if yesterday was a good day to buy, today will be as well.

I couldn't agree more. I think China and falling oil prices will continue to influence the market at least through the first quarter of 2016. I ended up losing -1.67% yesterday, but that is ok. I cut my losses and can begin anew. As I mentioned to Tsunami, I will be shorting the market for the near future, getting in when the market is oversold and hopefully exiting before the next decline.

Good luck to you in your investments...

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 5 Jan 16.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] G Fund[/TD]
[TD] F Fund[/TD]
[TD] C Fund[/TD]
[TD] S Fund[/TD]
[TD] I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD] 0.19%[/TD]
[TD] -0.48%[/TD]
[TD]0.41%[/TD]
[TD]-0.16%[/TD]
[TD]-0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD] 0.72% [/TD]
[TD]-0.66%[/TD]
[TD]2.70%[/TD]
[TD] -1.10%[/TD]
[TD]-2.90%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Have a great evening, and good luck with your investments!!!

 

[ravensfan]

Thought this U.S. Economic Calendar might come in handy for some folks!!!

U.S. Economic Calendar

Enjoy!

 

[ravensfan]

Is it just me, or do these two look the same???

https://tbrickert.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/biden-and-walter1.png

 

[burrocrat]

Thought this U.S. Economic Calendar might come in handy for some folks!!!

U.S. Economic Calendar

Enjoy!

cool, that is a good resource, i never try to hunt down events and that is something handy to check when considering an ift. i have got caught in a move finding out too late something big was going to be announced in a couple days. i bookmarked it.

regardless where the market goes from here, after today's action i bet you are feeling pretty good about your exit the other day. that's good.

 

[ravensfan]

cool, that is a good resource, i never try to hunt down events and that is something handy to check when considering an ift. i have got caught in a move finding out too late something big was going to be announced in a couple days. i bookmarked it.

regardless where the market goes from here, after today's action i bet you are feeling pretty good about your exit the other day. that's good.

Glad you found the calendar useful. As for today's action, just for ha ha's I calculated where I would be if I had stayed in. It was -2.92%. By exiting, I am -1.65%, so yes I am feeling very good about the decision. Sometimes preserving what you have is just as important as increasing your bottom line...:1244:

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 6 Jan 16.
[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] G Fund[/TD]
[TD] F Fund[/TD]
[TD] C Fund[/TD]
[TD] S Fund[/TD]
[TD] I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD] 0.18%[/TD]
[TD] 0.35%[/TD]
[TD] -1.35%[/TD]
[TD] -1.09%[/TD]
[TD] -0.83%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD] 0.72% [/TD]
[TD] -0.26%[/TD]
[TD] 0.58%[/TD]
[TD] -4.00%[/TD]
[TD] -4.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Have a great evening, and good luck with your investments!!!

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 7 Jan 16.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] G Fund[/TD]
[TD] F Fund[/TD]
[TD] C Fund[/TD]
[TD] S Fund[/TD]
[TD] I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD] 0.18%[/TD]
[TD] 0.60%[/TD]
[TD] -4.79%[/TD]
[TD] -5.13%[/TD]
[TD] -3.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD] 0.72% [/TD]
[TD]0.03%[/TD]
[TD]-2.67%[/TD]
[TD] -7.57%[/TD]
[TD] -7.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Have a great evening, and good luck with your investments!!!

 

[Boghie]

You were on target. Yowser.

Should have seen it coming. To me this downturn looked transitory - and it still might be. Down about 5% this year - and we are only a few days into it. And, about a 10% correction from recent highs... But my mix is surprisingly down only 3.8%... Yeah!!!

Might have washed out though so gotta stay in...

 

[ravensfan]

You were on target. Yowser.

Should have seen it coming. To me this downturn looked transitory - and it still might be. Down about 5% this year - and we are only a few days into it. And, about a 10% correction from recent highs... But my mix is surprisingly down only 3.8%... Yeah!!!

Might have washed out though so gotta stay in...

Just be careful! I understand burro is installing a wet bar on the ark for times like this...:nuts:

 

[burrocrat]

Just be careful! I understand burro is installing a wet bar on the ark for times like this...:nuts:

huh, install? you haven't been below decks yet? burro's ark is a wet bar! i thought you knew already, let me show you around, make yourself at home.

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 8 Jan 16.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] G Fund[/TD]
[TD] F Fund[/TD]
[TD] C Fund[/TD]
[TD] S Fund[/TD]
[TD] I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD] 0.18%[/TD]
[TD] 0.81%[/TD]
[TD] -7.33%[/TD]
[TD] -8.02%[/TD]
[TD] -6.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD] 0.72% [/TD]
[TD]0.05%[/TD]
[TD]-3.83%[/TD]
[TD] -9.19%[/TD]
[TD] -9.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Have a great weekend, and good luck with your investments!!!