ravensfan's Account Talk

[ravensfan]

On 28 Feb 2013 I joined this forum and for the past year, I have been reading, learning and listening. I've had fun responding to other peoples posts and figured it was about time I created my own thread. As far as charts go, I'll leave that to the experts. Bquat and JTH do a much better job than I can or ever hope to. The videos...nnuut is the best. What I hope to do, is give my perspective on market conditions and maybe give some folks something to think about.

So a little about me. I started my military career in the Air National Guard back in 1978 and a year later was able to secure a position in the military technician program. I spent my entire career in the Logistics field and retired as a CSRS employee in 2011 as the Installation Traffic Manager. So from my perspective Transporters and Loggies are the best.

My goal on this forum is to learn as much as I can about investing in the TSP, increase my bottom line and try to avoid big losses. My investment strategy is probably more along the lines of a market timer (yea I know "a fools errand") whearas I'm buying the dips and selling high.

So with that being said, I look forward to your comments and thank those of you who have helped me along the way.

 

[BichonFreeze]

Best of luck. I've been following the fool's errand way this year given January's instability. I want to go 100% all S and let it ride at some point, but am not sure when to time that.

 

[ravensfan]

Best of luck. I've been following the fool's errand way this year given January's instability. I want to go 100% all S and let it ride at some point, but am not sure when to time that.

Thanks for the reply BichonFreeze. I use a combination of market indicators to time my entries and exits. But it is by far a foolproof system. I nailed it in Dec gaining 3.54% but then lost out in late Jan/Feb losing .94%. Now I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting for my indicators to tell me it's safe to get back in. Hopefully there is still time to turn Feb into a positive.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Ravensfan!! Woohoo...so awesome to see you open a thread. I'm definitely looking forward to hearing from you. Best wishes ! . DBAnnie

 

[ravensfan]

Nice to see the 88 car in victory lane last night. What an awesome race.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Ohhh. I missed it. Saw it in the news today though. That was a big win for Dale Earnhardt Jr.!!

 

[ravensfan]

I'm really not sure what to do with this. Perhaps it's something or maybe nothing at all. So any and all feedback is appreciated.

I have a spreadsheet that I developed about a year ago. It's purpose is to track daily prices of the F Fund (AGG), C Fund (SPX), S Fund (DWCPF) and I Fund (EFA). In addition, I set it up to give me the daily percentage of gains and losses and 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages for each fund. I use this spreadsheet to support decisions to get in or out of the market and which funds to invest in.

I was updating the spreadsheet at market close today and while thinking about our own sentiment survey, the thought crossed my mind, of how many times each fund was positive compared to how many times it was negative over the last 50 days.

The results were as follows:

F Fund - 62% Positive 38% Negative

C Fund - 54% Positive 46% Negative

S Fund - 70% Positive 30% Negative

I Fund - 62% Positive 38% Negative

So if I were a betting man, I would be invested in the S Fund as it has the highest ratio of positive days.

So my question to the forum is; Am I on to something here or is this just gee wizz stuff? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

V/r
ravensfan

 

[Birchtree]

Previous performance is not necessarily indicative of future results - that's what makes this game so interesting. I've shied away from the TSP S fund for the last several years waiting for outperformance to pop up some place else like in the C fund and I fund. The S fund has now been running hot for nearly 15 years - at some point it will cool off and the large caps will take over leadership.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Ravensfan,

The S fund has the best fund in terms of overall average returns, followed by C fund and then I fund. The F and G funds don't even come close to touching any of the equity funds in the long term. So if you want long term growth, and want to use buy and hold, there is no question that the market is best long term.

So based on that, it would not surprise me if you looked at all those years and found that overall prices were more positive than not for those funds; but I do believe there would be differences during short term 1-3 year or lesser periods because there are down trends within the overall long term secular bull cycle.

Market is just so difficult to time short term. I'm trying to find a "sweet" spot, where I can stay invested longer midterm and only get out in time to avoid say 7% downturns or more. Still reviewing technical indicators using EMAs (daily and weekly) plus MACD and now the Full Stochastic to revamp my strategy.

This is still a strong bull market and I do believe it will be here much longer....it's just sidestepping some of those downturns without going overboard (i.e. Being on the sidelines too long) that can be tricky. I almost feel like jumping in and reallocating to go 60S/25C/15I or 50s/30c/20i. ....and just letting it ride a few months. But I know it's gonna pullback just a little and I do think China and new earnings reports coming out later in March will have a little impact but that's a ways off. I have never much liked the I fund, but it looks really ripe as well! Best wishes!! DBAnnie

 

[ravensfan]

Thanks to both of you for your input. I was hoping that I had identified a trend that would add to my current strategy. But as Thomas Jefferson once said; “The moment a person forms a theory, his imagination sees, in every object, only the traits which favor that theory.”

My current strategy utilizes Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, Moving Averages and Slow Stoch to identify entry and exit points. It’s not perfect because I tend to jump in to early and end up paying more than I should have and jump out to early,losing out on additional profits.

I think Clester has a strategy of being 50% invested at all times, being in stocks during upturns and in bonds during downturns. It sounds logical and had I applied that theory to 2013, I would have done much better. But the fear factor for me is; what if this downturn is the beginning of another 2008? That fear factor usually sends me back to the G Fund and into protection mode.

I guess the best stategy is to just keep plugging away.Thanks again for your input. I appreciate you both.

V/r
Ravensfan

 

[userque]

...I think Clester has a strategy of being 50% invested at all times, being in stocks during upturns and in bonds during downturns. It sounds logical and had I applied that theory to 2013, I would have done much better. But the fear factor for me is; what if this downturn is the beginning of another 2008? That fear factor usually sends me back to the G Fund and into protection mode....

Ravensfan

FYI Just so you and others know, in case you want to try Clester's rules; Clester actually said, [emphasis added]

This is exactly why I have my rule of staying in at least 50% stocks during Bull markets. Same is true of Bear markets. I stay out at least 50%.


The system has no warning signs but we need to get above the highs still. A failure is trouble. What constitutes a failure? I guess for my system its a drop below the 50 dma.

I am back to about even with the C fund. That makes me smile. If I can just keep it going!

Another sell for me would be an RSI over 70 but we have some room.

 

[ravensfan]

The drop in the market today is looking good for those of us sitting on the sidelines, waiting for an entry point. However IMHO I think there is more downside to come. I think JTH's post #5785 has the numbers about right. So for now, the word for the week is patience...

Then on the other hand, if I have a 50/50 shot at something, 90% of the time I'm wrong.

There, that's my contrarian statement for the week. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.:nuts:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

The drop in the market today is looking good for those of us sitting on the sidelines, waiting for an entry point. However IMHO I think there is more downside to come. I think JTH's post #5785 has the numbers about right. So for now, the word for the week is patience...

Then on the other hand, if I have a 50/50 shot at something, 90% of the time I'm wrong.

There, that's my contrarian statement for the week. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.:nuts:

Hi Ravensfan, yep timing is important. I just looked at charts and drop today was not too bad. News coming in of more possible action by Russia in the next few hours. So maybe that triggers more sell off tomorrow???? who knows. I somehow get the feeling the market doesn't care all that much....to me the sell off seemed light today even with the turmoil. So tomorrow will be interesting.

But what I'm more curious about are the job numbers, unemployment numbers and more news on earnings coming out almost every day this week. The talking heads each have their own differing views. But a couple today did reiterate thought that they expect a 10-15% decrease sometime this year. I get the feeling it might not be as soon as we keep thinking.....so if doesn't happen until Aug to a Sept, that could mean we should be charging to the top of the hill!?!!! ...Hummm.. Like you I'm still looking for the entry. Maybe later this week!:nuts: Au Revoir .... Annie

 

[ravensfan]

For those of us sitting on the sidelines, waiting for an entry point, it has been a slow process.

Since it's high of 1047.54 on 4 March, the S Fund has had four straight down days, but price still remains above the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages.

The C fund hit a new high of 1878.04 on 4 March and remains firmly above the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages.

The I Fund seems to be on a downtrend and over the past 10 trading days has averaged a loss of -0.03 per day. However, it did hit a new high of 68.03 on 6 March. Current price is below the 10 day moving average.

The F Fund appears to be the closest to a buy signal as it has averaged a loss of -0.02 per day, over the past 20 trading days. However, it too hit a new high of 108.35 on 3 March. Current price is below the 10 and 20 day moving averages.

So for the time being, we will continue to sit on the sidelines and wait for that elusive entry point as the market makes that slooowwww turn towards a buying opportunity.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

For those of us sitting on the sidelines, waiting for an entry point, it has been a slow process.

Since it's high of 1047.54 on 4 March, the S Fund has had four straight down days, but price still remains above the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages.

The C fund hit a new high of 1878.04 on 4 March and remains firmly above the 10, 20 and 50 day moving averages.

The I Fund seems to be on a downtrend and over the past 10 trading days has averaged a loss of -0.03 per day. However, it did hit a new high of 68.03 on 6 March. Current price is below the 10 day moving average.

The F Fund appears to be the closest to a buy signal as it has averaged a loss of -0.02 per day, over the past 20 trading days. However, it too hit a new high of 108.35 on 3 March. Current price is below the 10 and 20 day moving averages.

So for the time being, we will continue to sit on the sidelines and wait for that elusive entry point as the market makes that slooowwww turn towards a buying opportunity.

But a buying opportunity for what? S or F ?

 

[ravensfan]

But a buying opportunity for what? S or F ?

At this point I wouldn't jump in, as none of the funds have triggered a buy signal in my system. As I look at my data, the F Fund is closest to a buy, followed by the I Fund and then the S Fund. With that said, I will continue to monitor my indicators and patiently wait for that buy signal.

 

[BichonFreeze]

I'd be careful with that I fund. It has the potential to explode upwards, but just as much so in the opposite direction due to the Ukraine. Simply too much overreaction based on political sentiment.

 

[ravensfan]

I'd be careful with that I fund. It has the potential to explode upwards, but just as much so in the opposite direction due to the Ukraine. Simply too much overreaction based on political sentiment.

Agreed. I've been caught more than once feeding at the I Fund trough, only to get smacked down again. Definately proceed with caution.:suspicious:

 

[ravensfan]

Ran my indicators against today's closing numbers and came up with the following.

F Fund - Today's close finished above the 10, 20 and 50 SMA. This fund has had 4 straight days of gains. There is still room to grow as we are not yet close to the upper bollenger band. Since we are in pullback mode on C, S and I, the F Fund may provide an opportunity for profits as we continue down.

C Fund - Price closed today below the 10 and 20 SMA. Negative crossovers have occured in MACD and Slow Stochastics and RSI is falling. However, no buy signal yet as we are still a good 26 points above the lower bollenger band. A few more down days and I think we will be there.

S Fund - As with the C Fund, todays price closed below the 10 and 20 day SMA and we've also had negative crossovers of the MACD and Slow Stoch's. Of the last 10 trading days, 8 of them have been for losses, but we are still 27 points above the lower bollenger band. No buy signal yet.

I Fund - A buy signal has been issued. Today's closing price is below the 10, 20 and 50 day SMA's, as well as the lower bollenger band. Slow Stoch and MACD have had negative crossovers and RSI is falling. The wild cards are the situation in Ukraine and news out of China. IMHO we could still be heading lower.

Conclusion - I'm really tempted to throw 20 - 25% at the I Fund. If markets are trending down tomorrow, I'm in. If not I'll wait for a better opportunity next week. I've been burned by the I Fund before, so I tend to play it conservative. If I do get into the I Fund tomorrow, I still have 1 IFT left as I wait for buy signals from the C and or S Funds.

Disclaimer: The above, is my interpretation of what is happening in the market. They are my opinion and not trading recommendations. However, if they are of help in your investment decisions, I'm glad you found them useful.

 

[BichonFreeze]

Conclusion - I'm really tempted to throw 20 - 25% at the I Fund. If markets are trending down tomorrow, I'm in. If not I'll wait for a better opportunity next week. I've been burned by the I Fund before, so I tend to play it conservative. If I do get into the I Fund tomorrow, I still have 1 IFT left as I wait for buy signals from the C and or S Funds.

The I fund definitely is set for an explosive year so I don't see this as a bad long term investment. The only problem is how temperamental the fund is to European influence. In other words situations like Ukraine only serve to muffle what could be the market beating fund this year.