ravensfan's Account Talk

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 15 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]-1.04%[/TD]
[TD] 4.79%[/TD]
[TD] 5.02%[/TD]
[TD]2.32%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.73%[/TD]
[TD]0.13%[/TD]
[TD]-5.43%[/TD]
[TD]-7.52%[/TD]
[TD]-8.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Good luck in your investments and have a good evening !!!

 

[ravensfan]

A few days ago I read Tom's blog where he pointed out that the C Fund had been up one week and down the next and it had been doing this for awhile. So I went back and checked and sure enough, both the C Fund and S Fund have been in this pattern since early July. If this pattern is to hold, the C Fund needs to close down at least 1.53% and the S Fund needs to close down at least 1.84% which will make this a negative week and the pattern continues.

With that said, next week should be positive for both funds so I'm thinking of getting back in on Monday. We'll see what happens as the day progresses.

Good luck and happy investing...

 

[Whipsaw]

A few days ago I read Tom's blog where he pointed out that the C Fund had been up one week and down the next and it had been doing this for awhile. So I went back and checked and sure enough, both the C Fund and S Fund have been in this pattern since early July. If this pattern is to hold, the C Fund needs to close down at least 1.53% and the S Fund needs to close down at least 1.84% which will make this a negative week and the pattern continues.

With that said, next week should be positive for both funds so I'm thinking of getting back in on Monday. We'll see what happens as the day progresses.

Good luck and happy investing...

I like the way you're thinking! Of course, as soon as a pattern like that is recognized, it will likely change. Its certainly another variable to consider as we read the tea leaves. Looks like you're getting a good portion of the downside movement today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

A few days ago I read Tom's blog where he pointed out that the C Fund had been up one week and down the next and it had been doing this for awhile. So I went back and checked and sure enough, both the C Fund and S Fund have been in this pattern since early July. If this pattern is to hold, the C Fund needs to close down at least 1.53% and the S Fund needs to close down at least 1.84% which will make this a negative week and the pattern continues.

With that said, next week should be positive for both funds so I'm thinking of getting back in on Monday. We'll see what happens as the day progresses.

Good luck and happy investing...

Looks like the S&P hears you (lol)
About 35 min before the close.

​

 

[ravensfan]

So the C Fund followed the script and will finish the week down. The S Fund on the other hand did not lose enough today and will finish the week up (pattern broken).

So it looks like the pattern is intact for the C Fund, so therefore I will submit my first IFT on Monday to move to the C Fund and then head to the F Fund on or about Sep 28th...

Hoping this play will help to recoup some of losses I incurred on my last boneheaded move. All I can say is fear got the best of me and I paid the price.

Good luck all and have a great weekend!!!

 

[ravensfan]

Decided to hold off submitting that first IFT today. Dow is up triple digits so far and I don't like getting in on big up days (buy low, sell high), so I will stand pat for now and look for an entry point on the next down swing. Hopefully that will happen later this week.

Good luck to all in your investment decisions.

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 21 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.19%[/TD]
[TD]0.13%[/TD]
[TD] -0.81%[/TD]
[TD] -0.27%[/TD]
[TD]-2.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.73%[/TD]
[TD]1.07%[/TD]
[TD]-5.60%[/TD]
[TD]-7.41%[/TD]
[TD]-10.84%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a good evening !!!

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 22 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.58%[/TD]
[TD] -1.21%[/TD]
[TD] -1.21%[/TD]
[TD]-4.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.73%[/TD]
[TD]1.84%[/TD]
[TD]-6.81%[/TD]
[TD]-8.81%[/TD]
[TD]-12.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



Good luck in your investments and have a good evening !!!

 

[ravensfan]

No big market selloff today, but we still closed down, so the downtrend continues...

I heard on FBN that when the Pope visits the U.S. markets go up, up, up. Well he's here and it didn't...another trend broken. Of course using Obamanomics logic, we actually gained today because if it wasn't for the Pope's visit we would have had another market sell off...LOL :nuts:

That's all folks!

 

[OBXTrader]

Japanese market's been closed for 3 days, curious how that will turn out tonight. Europe seemed to buoy our market today, they got a DCB but we didn't.

Tomorrow, I am interested to see if Yellen can navigate that they want to raise interest rates (soon, really we mean it) and it is good, but we didn't this time because the world economy is teetering on collapse, but next month it won't be teetering.

No big market selloff today, but we still closed down, so the downtrend continues...

I heard on FBN that when the Pope visits the U.S. markets go up, up, up. Well he's here and it didn't...another trend broken. Of course using Obamanomics logic, we actually gained today because if it wasn't for the Pope's visit we would have had another market sell off...LOL :nuts:

That's all folks!

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 23 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.41%[/TD]
[TD] 1.54%[/TD]
[TD] 1.10%[/TD]
[TD]-1.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.17%[/TD]
[TD]-4.93%[/TD]
[TD]-6.82%[/TD]
[TD]-10.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a good evening !!!

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 24 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.59%[/TD]
[TD] -0.64%[/TD]
[TD] -0.95%[/TD]
[TD]-3.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.19%[/TD]
[TD]-5.54%[/TD]
[TD]-7.83%[/TD]
[TD]-10.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Good luck in your investments and have a good evening !!! :1244:

Note: EFA (I Fund) set a new low for 2015 today, closing at 56.96...Buying opportunity? Hmm

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 25 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.21%[/TD]
[TD] -0.81%[/TD]
[TD] -1.99%[/TD]
[TD]-2.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.37%[/TD]
[TD]-6.31%[/TD]
[TD]-8.98%[/TD]
[TD]-10.24%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a great weekend !!!

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 28 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.19%[/TD]
[TD]0.29%[/TD]
[TD] -1.83%[/TD]
[TD] -4.09%[/TD]
[TD]-2.46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.73%[/TD]
[TD]1.46%[/TD]
[TD]-8.82%[/TD]
[TD]-11.77%[/TD]
[TD]-12.33%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a great evening !!!

 

[ravensfan]

So today is Tuesday, 29 October and I'm sitting here with two IFT's remaining for September. Part of me says I should get back in and not let those IFT's go to waste. But with all the negativity flowing another part says to remain patient. Yesterdays big drop brought the S&P 500 close to the August lows, so we are retesting the lows and normally that's a buying opportunity.

The moon phase thing that Tsunami has been talking about looked promising at first glance, but it to has been out of sync with the green and red phases since early June. And if anyone ever figures out that Elliott Wave thing...good luck. Now the talking heads on the business channels are all talking about a crash that could happen sometime in October all the way into April 2016. One guy even predicts the DOW will hit 5000 in early 2017.

With all that said, I'm just going to stay on the lily pad and preserve my cash. I'm starting to wonder though, with all this doom and gloom is the Santa Claus Rally in jeopardy?

Raven Out!

 

[Tsunami]

Actually, the lunatic moon phase thing has been incredible this year, with only one losing period (in August).
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/
I spent a whole weekend backtesting it clear back to 2004, and the results were....
Average annual returns from 2004 through 2014:
S&P 500: +6.83%/year
Lunatic system using only the G fund during each "red" phase: +12.25%/year
Lunatic system using only the F fund during each "red" phase: +13.62%/year

Then when I combined it with a basic seasonal system that only trades 8 times each year instead of 26 times (with the 4 trades in/out of the G fund using the lunar dates instead of blindly making the move on the last day of the month each time), the returns were even better! +14.64%/year using G and +15.58% using the F fund. I don't trust the F fund much going forward once this bear market is over, so my plan is to use that system with the G fund and see how it goes. My goal is only 6% so anything over that is gravy.

Under this combined seasonal/lunar system one should move to the C fund tomorrow and then not make a move until 11/23 (per equityclock.com) when you move to the S fund as small cap seasonality takes over...this year it just so happens that the moon phase is aligned so that a "green" period starts on 10/1, plus I think the elliott waves are aligned such that the market should be near the low for the recent decline...in fact one wave count could have the index's rallying all the way to around Christmas clear up to near 2100 again. I'm out of IFT's so can't make the move tomorrow, but plan to make the move to C on 10/1 unless it looks like there needs to be one more wave 4 then 5 down to the final low (which is how it looks to me as of this evening, there's just no clear wave 4 and 5 yet starting from the 9/17 top)...in that case the bottom should come next week in the low 1800s rather than the mid-1800s tomorrow or Thursday morning.

That's my 3 cents.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

This is my favorite part of the red and green periods: "(note: the Green Periods start about 3 days after Full Moon)"

Just curious, how did you backtest that statement? How does one decide what "about" means? "About" can mean a lot with a VIX above 20, which of course means a lot of day to day volatility...............

Actually, the lunatic moon phase thing has been incredible this year, with only one losing period (in August).
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/
I spent a whole weekend backtesting it clear back to 2004, and the results were....
Average annual returns from 2004 through 2014:
S&P 500: +6.83%/year
Lunatic system using only the G fund during each "red" phase: +12.25%/year
Lunatic system using only the F fund during each "red" phase: +13.62%/year

Then when I combined it with a basic seasonal system that only trades 8 times each year instead of 26 times (with the 4 trades in/out of the G fund using the lunar dates instead of blindly making the move on the last day of the month each time), the returns were even better! +14.64%/year using G and +15.58% using the F fund. I don't trust the F fund much going forward once this bear market is over, so my plan is to use that system with the G fund and see how it goes. My goal is only 6% so anything over that is gravy.

Under this combined seasonal/lunar system one should move to the C fund tomorrow and then not make a move until 11/23 (per equityclock.com) when you move to the S fund as small cap seasonality takes over...this year it just so happens that the moon phase is aligned so that a "green" period starts on 10/1, plus I think the elliott waves are aligned such that the market should be near the low for the recent decline...in fact one wave count could have the index's rallying all the way to around Christmas clear up to near 2100 again. I'm out of IFT's so can't make the move tomorrow, but plan to make the move to C on 10/1 unless it looks like there needs to be one more wave 4 then 5 down to the final low (which is how it looks to me as of this evening, there's just no clear wave 4 and 5 yet starting from the 9/17 top)...in that case the bottom should come next week in the low 1800s rather than the mid-1800s tomorrow or Thursday morning.

That's my 3 cents.

 

[Tsunami]

Hi IT, good question, I had to figure out a consistent way to handle it and stick with it. As for the 3 days, that's what the lunatic software uses, not me (I always thought markets tended to turn on the days of full/new moons, but apparently on average it's 3 days later)....but there was more to it than that...

First, if you download lunatictrader's free software for a 30-day trial (which I did and have just a few days left) you can go back as many years as you want and see exactly, within 10 minutes or so by eyeballing his charts, when each cycle turns from red to green and vice versa. My quandary came on how to decide which exact day to use when the turn came during market hours. After some trial and error comparing results (I spent a LOT of hours doing this) I decided to make it so the IFT's were the day before then lunar phase change if the change to green occurred before 9:30 am (just 2 hours into the trading day my time), and when going to a red phase, I found that using mid-day (10:45am) worked best. Once I made that decision I used the exact closing fund prices (which go clear back to 1/1/2004) on tsp.gov, painstakingly went through every month, comparing 8 different strategies. I'd love it if someone was bored enough to check my data but I'm confident there are very few mistakes. I have such a hard time believing the lunar thing...but the dang thing works....it's not the best every year, but over time it's certainly better than buy and hold and since you're only invested 50% of the time it reduces risk as well. In fact it's quite startling to me that it works so well when you're only in the market half the time.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Interesting, thanks for the information. I personally have tracked the moon phases back through 2006 with my own system and do incorporate them with my other indicators on occasion. I would never trade solely on them though as there were times that even though a trade might close higher using the red/green phases, one would endure some rather big pullbacks in between buying and selling. In 2008 alone one would have lost more than 10% in a matter of days (and that isn't even with a 3X ETF. Most wouldn't stick with a trading system after that. Good luck to you and hope you figure it out. We'll be watching. :smile:

Hi IT, good question, I had to figure out a consistent way to handle it and stick with it. As for the 3 days, that's what the lunatic software uses, not me (I always thought markets tended to turn on the days of full/new moons, but apparently on average it's 3 days later)....but there was more to it than that...

First, if you download lunatictrader's free software for a 30-day trial (which I did and have just a few days left) you can go back as many years as you want and see exactly, within 10 minutes or so by eyeballing his charts, when each cycle turns from red to green and vice versa. My quandary came on how to decide which exact day to use when the turn came during market hours. After some trial and error comparing results (I spent a LOT of hours doing this) I decided to make it so the IFT's were the day before then lunar phase change if the change to green occurred before 9:30 am (just 2 hours into the trading day my time), and when going to a red phase, I found that using mid-day (10:45am) worked best. Once I made that decision I used the exact closing fund prices (which go clear back to 1/1/2004) on tsp.gov, painstakingly went through every month, comparing 8 different strategies. I'd love it if someone was bored enough to check my data but I'm confident there are very few mistakes. I have such a hard time believing the lunar thing...but the dang thing works, year after year (it's not the best every year, but over time it's certainly better than buy and hold and since you're only invested 50% of the time it reduces risk as well.

 

[ravensfan]

Ok Tsunami, I'm going to give this lunar thing a shot. I submitted my first IFT for September going 40% C Fund. By doing so, I am invested going into October. If things go south, I will still be able to exit and then get back in later in the month and if old Mr. Moon is correct, I can always throw a little more into the game.

Thanks and good luck with your investments!!!