ravensfan's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 27 Aug 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.19%[/TD]
[TD] -4.26%[/TD]
[TD] -4.52%[/TD]
[TD]-6.67%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]0.94%[/TD]
[TD]-5.28%[/TD]
[TD]-7.49%[/TD]
[TD]-8.42%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!

C is the least worst equity... =:-o

 

[ravensfan]

Well said Burro! One of the toughest decisions we have in TSP (complicated by problems with timing and IFT's, and especially when we are losing money and the markets are down) is whether to hang in there or jump out. It would be great if we had a TSP Ombudsmen (all knowing and altruistic and great with charts of course) who we could converse with (for free) for counsel in those dark moments where either we don't know what to do, or we know what we should do, but the fear\pain is leading us in a different direction. Let me know if there is anybody on the forum like that....well Birchtree maybe

Hey FS,

Not trying to steal anyone's thunder here at TSPTalk, but I may have found that "TSP Ombudsmen (all knowing and altruistic and great with charts of course) who we could converse with (for free) for counsel in those dark moments where either we don't know what to do, or we know what we should do, but the fear\pain is leading us in a different direction." Check out his article on our recent pullback and the best part, he is free. Enjoy my friend!!!

~http://www.tspallocation.com/current-thrift-savings-plan-allocation-and-business-cycle-analysis-august-2015/

 

[ravensfan]

I thought I would share this, because I fell into this trap. I wonder how many others at TSPTalk have done the same.

This entry was posted in TSP Allocation Strategy by TS Paul Follow the link if you would like to read the entire article.

"Ignore the Financial Media

The financial media is in the advertising business, not the news business or the financial advising business. They make money when you watch the ads on TV or fall for the click-bait headlines screaming about market collapse. They very intentionally do not put these market events into context, explain that this happens routinely and the world is not ending, or tell you that professional investors use these events to buy more stocks and funds. CNBC doesn’t get you to stay tuned past the next commercial break by bringing on people who will tell you that it is overwhelmingly likely that this is a complete routine non-event, so that’s not what they do."

I must admit that I spend way more time that is necessary watching these very same business news channels. With the recent pullback, I ran for the G Fund because I listened to the rhetoric, got scared and went into protection mode. I wish I would have read this article before I bailed.

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 31 Aug 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.08%[/TD]
[TD] -6.02%[/TD]
[TD] -5.31%[/TD]
[TD]-7.77%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.73%[/TD]
[TD]0.94%[/TD]
[TD]-5.04%[/TD]
[TD]-6.98%[/TD]
[TD]-6.37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!

 

[Dinicti]

Dear Ravensfan, I agree with your advice re: media. Often it is ridiculous how they try to be balanced and give both points of view having the same people who end up mostly guessing. It would be nice if the talking heads had a rating system tied w/ prediction rate. Anyway, I agree it is entertainment, but they do provide info.

Also looking at my fav. S fund from Jan. 1st, 2014, some 20 mo. ago it was 33.6706, tad bit lower than 6% today. Kind of sad.

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 1 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]-0.28%[/TD]
[TD] -8.03%[/TD]
[TD] -7.08%[/TD]
[TD]-10.17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]0.89%[/TD]
[TD]-7.36%[/TD]
[TD]-8.91%[/TD]
[TD]-9.65%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Raven. Mucho ThanksO! A very interesting read and a testament to buy and hold. I'm not certain I have the same threshold for pain but I certainly like the fact that he explains his rationale and why he moves the way he does. Still on vacation but just reading the forum in the early hours to see what's happening. All the best!

FS

 

[Stoplight]

I thought I would share this, because I fell into this trap. I wonder how many others at TSPTalk have done the same.

This entry was posted in TSP Allocation Strategy by TS Paul Follow the link if you would like to read the entire article.

"Ignore the Financial Media

The financial media is in the advertising business, not the news business or the financial advising business. They make money when you watch the ads on TV or fall for the click-bait headlines screaming about market collapse. They very intentionally do not put these market events into context, explain that this happens routinely and the world is not ending, or tell you that professional investors use these events to buy more stocks and funds. CNBC doesn’t get you to stay tuned past the next commercial break by bringing on people who will tell you that it is overwhelmingly likely that this is a complete routine non-event, so that’s not what they do."

I must admit that I spend way more time that is necessary watching these very same business news channels. With the recent pullback, I ran for the G Fund because I listened to the rhetoric, got scared and went into protection mode. I wish I would have read this article before I bailed.

Great post, RF !!! It's good to be reminded every so often ! :smile:

I, too, have a tendency to fall into this trap...I did recently sell some stinkers, but...just over the last few days, I've been fretting and worrying much more...watching the talking heads...

Today I spent some time updating my spreadsheets, and you know what ? Taking a step back and looking at it...I'm okay !!! Ditching some of the stinkers and going to cash, and minimizing/eliminating my "mad money" trades...and I thought about those recent swings in stock prices. Yeah, I still have some huge holes in the ground, but overall...my "Plan" is working ! Ya gotta figure, stock prices might go all over the place, and build that in to your "Plan"

That's the key : Have a well-thought-out "Plan" that one is comfortable with, and stick to it !!! Don't ignore it, but don't sweat the day-to-day gyrations, either !

Now...if only the O's could start winning some games again...


Stoplight...

 

[ravensfan]

Great post, RF !!! It's good to be reminded every so often ! :smile:

I, too, have a tendency to fall into this trap...I did recently sell some stinkers, but...just over the last few days, I've been fretting and worrying much more...watching the talking heads...

Today I spent some time updating my spreadsheets, and you know what ? Taking a step back and looking at it...I'm okay !!! Ditching some of the stinkers and going to cash, and minimizing/eliminating my "mad money" trades...and I thought about those recent swings in stock prices. Yeah, I still have some huge holes in the ground, but overall...my "Plan" is working ! Ya gotta figure, stock prices might go all over the place, and build that in to your "Plan"

That's the key : Have a well-thought-out "Plan" that one is comfortable with, and stick to it !!! Don't ignore it, but don't sweat the day-to-day gyrations, either !

Now...if only the O's could start winning some games again...


Stoplight...

Yep, if I woulda stuck with the plan, I would probably be up for the year instead of down nearly 5%. Another lesson learned the hard way.

So the plan going forward is to wait it out in the G Fund for a few days or weeks and then get back in. By then, we should have a much clearer picture of China's influence on our markets, what the Fed may or may not do regarding hiking interest rates and what effect Puerto Rico's situation may have.

I think the volatility continues and one thing I have noticed is that we have huge drops but never seem to gain those losses all the way back. I mean it's nice to get a 5% gain, but when you just lost 10%, it's still a 5% loss.

As for our Orioles, it may be time to put the Oriole hat back in the hat rack and dust off the Ravens hat...

All the best to you and good luck with your investments!!!

 

[burrocrat]

By then, we should have a much clearer picture of China's influence on our markets, what the Fed may or may not do regarding hiking interest rates and what effect Puerto Rico's situation may have.

yep, by then we will definitely have a clearer picture of those things. unfortunately, also by then there will be other new things of which we have no clear picture. if everybody waited until everybody saw the picture, everybody would make money. which is actually impossible because it takes two folks with opposing views of the market to make a trade, one happy to sell just as happy as the other is to buy.

risk is a funny thing. without risk you can make no money except g fund wages at about 2.25% per year. with risk you may make more than you can dream, but also may lose more than you can stand. and everywhere along the spectrum in between.

happy trading.

 

[Stoplight]

yep, by then we will definitely have a clearer picture of those things. unfortunately, also by then there will be other new things of which we have no clear picture. if everybody waited until everybody saw the picture, everybody would make money. which is actually impossible because it takes two folks with opposing views of the market to make a trade, one happy to sell just as happy as the other is to buy.

risk is a funny thing. without risk you can make no money except g fund wages at about 2.25% per year. with risk you may make more than you can dream, but also may lose more than you can stand. and everywhere along the spectrum in between.

happy trading.

Burro,

Just like RF's sig says !!!

Risk ? Ya...that's why I picked up a lot of UVXY today...it's like an auto accident...you can't help but look...even if it grosses you out

RF...ya, I put away my O's house flag, and dug out the Ravens flag...not sure I feel all that good about their season, though...


Stoplight...

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 3 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.07%[/TD]
[TD] -6.08%[/TD]
[TD] -5.05%[/TD]
[TD]-7.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.46%[/TD]
[TD]-6.66%[/TD]
[TD]-8.07%[/TD]
[TD]-9.68%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!

 

[ravensfan]

I was pretty much anticipating another triple digit loss today, which is why I didn't follow the herd into the "Let's make a killing while China is out of the picture". With that said, I'm hoping the S&P will set a new low for 2015 (1867.61 was the close on August 25th) sometime next week which will provide a great buying opportunity.

I'm off for a 3 day weekend to Gettysburg with my HOG Chapter (it aint pigs, it's Harleys for you cagers out there), so I will post my best fund/worst fund when I get home on Monday.

Be safe and have a great Labor Day weekend!!!

Raven Out

 

[jpcavin]

I was pretty much anticipating another triple digit loss today, which is why I didn't follow the herd into the "Let's make a killing while China is out of the picture". With that said, I'm hoping the S&P will set a new low for 2015 (1867.61 was the close on August 25th) sometime next week which will provide a great buying opportunity.

I'm off for a 3 day weekend to Gettysburg with my HOG Chapter (it aint pigs, it's Harleys for you cagers out there), so I will post my best fund/worst fund when I get home on Monday.

Be safe and have a great Labor Day weekend!!!

Raven Out

Have fun and keep safe. :smile:

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 4 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.30%[/TD]
[TD] -7.99%[/TD]
[TD] -6.59%[/TD]
[TD]-9.36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.19%[/TD]
[TD]-8.38%[/TD]
[TD]-9.41%[/TD]
[TD]-11.79%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 8 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]-0.18%[/TD]
[TD] -6.01%[/TD]
[TD] -5.29%[/TD]
[TD]-6.98%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.73%[/TD]
[TD]0.97%[/TD]
[TD]-5.17%[/TD]
[TD]-6.76%[/TD]
[TD]-9.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 9 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD] -7.15%[/TD]
[TD] -5.85%[/TD]
[TD]-6.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.05%[/TD]
[TD]-6.09%[/TD]
[TD]-7.43%[/TD]
[TD]-7.86%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!

Note: Who could have predicted that on Sep 9th, the G Fund would be the best performer for 2015 at 1.38%YTD...

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 10 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]-0.31%[/TD]
[TD] -5.80%[/TD]
[TD] -4.58%[/TD]
[TD]-5.39%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]0.71%[/TD]
[TD]-6.13%[/TD]
[TD]-7.70%[/TD]
[TD]-8.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



Good luck in your investments and have a good evening!!!

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 11 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]-0.29%[/TD]
[TD] -3.21%[/TD]
[TD] -1.59%[/TD]
[TD]-3.68%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]0.82%[/TD]
[TD]-5.85%[/TD]
[TD]-7.29%[/TD]
[TD]-8.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a great football filled weekend!!!

 

[ravensfan]

Best Fund, Worst Fund as of COB 14 Sep 15.

[TABLE="class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table, width: 549"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G Fund[/TD]
[TD]F Fund[/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]S Fund[/TD]
[TD]I Fund[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.19%[/TD]
[TD]-0.40%[/TD]
[TD] -0.45%[/TD]
[TD] -0.03%[/TD]
[TD]-2.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60 DAY TOTAL[/TD]
[TD]0.73%[/TD]
[TD]0.99%[/TD]
[TD]-7.25%[/TD]
[TD]-8.73%[/TD]
[TD]-9.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Good luck in your investments and have a good evening !!!