Qibovin's Account Talk

[qibovin]

If tomorrow's the really ugly day, then I'll probably go back mostly or all in. If its up, then I'll run to the penny for Friday.

Of course I hadn't decided what I'd do for the inevitable "in between" day....G looks pretty good.

 

[qibovin]

I don't see anywhere to go for Monday except G, and I want to lock in that bounce today in the F. Ebb's pattern #3 has only appeared once on a Monday, and it was mixed - 1/2 point gain in the C, slight down S, slight up I. Also, 3.3 combo has only appeared once, and that was straddling the Wednesday July 4th holiday. The first day was up across the board (like today), but the second pattern #3 day, after the holiday and corresponding to Monday coming up, was mixed, with a flat C, slight up S, slight down I. This makes me think the C fund is at least woth a nibble. If there's a reasonable chance of flat or even up, that's no worse than the G. Of course it could be very ugly, so I'll only take enough of a bite that it won't kill be if it's bad. Looking back at pattern #3, it's occured most of the time on Tuesday which have quite often been down days following good Mondays. Anyway, this atypical appearance of pattern #3 is concerning, in and of itself. And as Tom suggests, something's brewing.:worried:
Of course, it may be S instead of C given the seasonality of Sept vs. July. In retrospect, I don't know that it's worth the risk since we appear to be in another Trader Fred wind-up cluster.
Well, maybe just a little...

 

[qibovin]

2. Further Ebb-analysis shows that pattern 6 on tap for tomorrow has occurred on Thursday 3 times since January. The overall gain for CSI was +0.11%, +0.16%, and +0.36%.
Also, there has only been one time that 4 safe-haven patterns have occurred back-to-back, and that was in August. Overall during those 4 days, C and S were positive 3/4 days, but there was one huge negative day in the middle which resulted in an overall negative return for the S fund, but still slightly positive overall for the C-fund. The I-fund was negative 3/4 days and overall. Day 3 was positive for all three funds (?this Friday?).

...any short-term losses will not outweigh the gains...

I should have listened to myself.

 

[FogSailing]

Your analysis is always appeciated Q. I need totake the time to do what you do and check the history of Ebb's patterns in consideration my IFT decision. Thanks for sharing.

FS

 

[qibovin]

The last appearance of Ebb pattern #2 on a Tuesday was an awesome >1+% day across the board, BUT...

The only combo pattern 3.2, also happened to appear on a Monday/Tuesday (in July) with a mixed gain on Monday with pattern #3 winded up -2/-2.3/-1.7 CSI. Ouch!

With Trader Fred's chart in a wind-up and after seeing FundSurfer's charts suggesting all the Funds at the top of their current channels, I'd like to see a (very quick) retest of that lower channel (the upper line in Trader Fred's diagrams) and then a breakout to new highs.

Still, Sentiment is in this week and I smell fear in the air. I'm comfortable enough with my YTD gains that I don't need to be overly risky.

I think I'll try 50% G, 15% @C&S, 20% I for today. If we retest tomorrow, I'll get back in, and if we break through resistance today or tomorrow, then I guess Ebb and Sentiment were right and I'll join them for the tail end of the gains over the next few days.

 

[qibovin]

The last 2.4 combo was up only for the I fund, but the first day of the combo was up >1% for all funds and it's not looking like today will be that day. Pattern #4 on Wednesdays are general good with a strong predelection for the I fund as well. I have to make an early move today, so I'm going to go with my plan from yesterday which was to move back into equities regardless of direction today. Still, I have some uneasiness about the market right now, so I'll try 20%G, 80% I at COB today.

 

[qibovin]

Thanks to Dr. Faustus again for the subEbbnalysis. I would add one thing. Pattern 7 has not had a good history on Thursdays. I am trying not to get greedy and go digging in the trash for gains right now. I'm happy to take the almost guaranteed gain in the G knowing I can't get booby-trapped there.

 

[qibovin]

Dr. F showed a positive (1 sample) combo pattern, and pattern #7 has been good two times on Monday (except I fund). Seasonality is shifting toward the S fund. Still, Sentiment, Ebb and Trader are in G. I'm going to try some new high performers to follow for a while because I'm not sure that I'm ready to chose between "systems" and two or three are ridiculously expensive (see comments below). Anyway, TRUEHONEST and 12% are going for S, and that's what the Ebb^2 combo's and #7 on Mondays would suggest as well. I'll follow the herd and Sentiment 80% to G, and these other guys 20% to S. After today, I will likely trade primarily Sentiment and some seasonality. Hopefully, going into the high season of November and December, I can back off the day-trading and ride the wave up. I may come shopping for a system when that goes to Hades in a handbasket...

Aside:
I realize that some investors with 100s of thousands, even 7 figure TSP balances can except $200+/year when they are almost guaranteed to make that up in improved gains; however, for those of us with lesser balances, just starting out, that's most of the improved performance out the door right off the bat. Obviously, there's no good accountability to be able to go with a "percent of balance" sort of fee, but I did think that this site was originally aimed at "the little man." As I've mentioned before, I do want to see these "systems" get compensated, I just think it could be done in a more cooperative way, without compromising the inter-system dialogues that are of great value and intrigue.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what the response is to these paid systems, but I suspect that they might do better taking a proportionate (?based on clicks to there system pages) payment from a combined "site" fee than they will do with individual subscribers. Personally, I like to use all the knowledge available to come up with my allocations, but those combined fees are pretty steep.

I may find myself desparate enough, in a couple of month, to subscribe to one or more systems, but initially I will wait and see how the rest of the board is impacted (as well as my Q4 gains).

 

[Birchtree]

You can always sign up with Joe Granville - he used to move markets. But there are no guarantees in this investing business no matter how much money one has accumulated - you just have to make the best of it and be in to win.

 

[DrFaustus]

Thanks to Dr. Faustus again for the subEbbnalysis. I would add one thing. Pattern 7 has not had a good history on Thursdays. I am trying not to get greedy and go digging in the trash for gains right now. I'm happy to take the almost guaranteed gain in the G knowing I can't get booby-trapped there.

Q ... I would not read too much into whether an EbbChart pattern has been a good performer on a certain day or not ... I just don't think there is enough data yet to warrant those kinds of conclusions.

 

[qibovin]

Q ... I would not read too much into whether an EbbChart pattern has been a good performer on a certain day or not ... I just don't think there is enough data yet to warrant those kinds of conclusions.

I couldn't agree with you more, but this system-without-enough-data is now a paid service.

I'm looking at moving to the sidelines today per Sentiment Survey results (still a free service!--I wonder how much longer that will last:worried. I'll watch the Ebbcharrt as long as it's available, but its been a bit chronologically challenged the last couple of days or so, anyway. I'm encouraged to see Trader Fred's market strength indicator finally take another small step out of the depths. As a leading indicator, hopefully that improvemnet will coincide with the Sentiment Survey possibly going back in the market for next week. A bit early to predict that far out.

 

[Birchtree]

I predict 12 months out - what's wrong with that? You do know the "Cooler" has been lurking - right?

 

[qibovin]

I predict 12 months out - what's wrong with that? You do know the "Cooler" has been lurking - right?

What (or who) is the Cooler?

I see a lot of folks (besides the usual Ebb crowd) heading for equities today. I'm going to split things up between G, F, and S, 30/30/40, so I'm not totally left out.

 

[Miss_Piggy]

We have another birthday today.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY QIBOVIN!​