08/29/13
A late decline took some of the steam out of what was developing into a strong day on Wednesday, but the indices still managed to hold onto some modest gains. The Dow gained 48-points, with similar percentage gains for the S&P 500 and small caps.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 167"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The I-fund lost ground as strength in the dollar held it back, and the F-fund fell 0.29% as yields rose.
The S&P 500 (SPY) rebounded slightly off of the bottom of the recent descending trading channel, but it did make a lower low down that support line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This chart shows that the S&P 500 is also testing the bottom of the longer-term rising trading channel. Clearly this is a level that needs to hold technically. There's a chance that the high speed program traders will try to push below the support to trigger stops and probably a reversal, so I'm more interested in the closing price than the daily low.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq is still holding at the 50-day EMA. With the 20-day EMA overhead, along with a new possible rising resistance line, it is a big question mark which open gap (red) will get filled first.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
With the situation in Syria, and the Middle East in general, heating up, the price of oil has broken out to new highs. You can see how volume has spiked this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Rising oil prices usually means good economic conditions, but when it gets this high, particularly when triggered by geopolitical events, it puts too much pressure on gas prices and consumer spending.
This weekly chart going back to mid-2008 shows the prior times that oil moved above $110 a barrel. Each time the S&P 500 was at, or nearing an intermediate-term high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Many times the 2 or 3 days prior to a holiday reverses the bigger trend so a rally yesterday, and into Friday would probably get many leaning toward the bullish side, when the tendency is to see the post-holiday action resume the bigger trend - which is now down.
The late selling on Wednesday tells me investors are interested in taking profits rather than hold and risk some overnight news. That will also be a concern on Friday afternoon as we head into a long-weekend. The Friday before Labor Day weekend does have a pretty good positive bias so that will be interesting. It may depend on what oil and bond yields do.
In today's TSP Talk Plus report we'll look at some of the other index charts, and talk about war and what it could bring to the stock market. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
A late decline took some of the steam out of what was developing into a strong day on Wednesday, but the indices still managed to hold onto some modest gains. The Dow gained 48-points, with similar percentage gains for the S&P 500 and small caps.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 305"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 167"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0056%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The I-fund lost ground as strength in the dollar held it back, and the F-fund fell 0.29% as yields rose.
The S&P 500 (SPY) rebounded slightly off of the bottom of the recent descending trading channel, but it did make a lower low down that support line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This chart shows that the S&P 500 is also testing the bottom of the longer-term rising trading channel. Clearly this is a level that needs to hold technically. There's a chance that the high speed program traders will try to push below the support to trigger stops and probably a reversal, so I'm more interested in the closing price than the daily low.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq is still holding at the 50-day EMA. With the 20-day EMA overhead, along with a new possible rising resistance line, it is a big question mark which open gap (red) will get filled first.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
With the situation in Syria, and the Middle East in general, heating up, the price of oil has broken out to new highs. You can see how volume has spiked this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Rising oil prices usually means good economic conditions, but when it gets this high, particularly when triggered by geopolitical events, it puts too much pressure on gas prices and consumer spending.
This weekly chart going back to mid-2008 shows the prior times that oil moved above $110 a barrel. Each time the S&P 500 was at, or nearing an intermediate-term high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Many times the 2 or 3 days prior to a holiday reverses the bigger trend so a rally yesterday, and into Friday would probably get many leaning toward the bullish side, when the tendency is to see the post-holiday action resume the bigger trend - which is now down.
The late selling on Wednesday tells me investors are interested in taking profits rather than hold and risk some overnight news. That will also be a concern on Friday afternoon as we head into a long-weekend. The Friday before Labor Day weekend does have a pretty good positive bias so that will be interesting. It may depend on what oil and bond yields do.
In today's TSP Talk Plus report we'll look at some of the other index charts, and talk about war and what it could bring to the stock market. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
