Poolman's Account Talk

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1/19/09

Poolman, Again there seem to be a divergent set of opinions as to the "Obama Rally" and how long to stay in. I've been thinking of getting out or reducing ?% by cob Tue or Wed at the latest. Some think it may last, at least in a small way until the Jan jobs report. What are your thoughts?--Ron
 
RonUSPSretired said:
1/19/09

Poolman, Again there seem to be a divergent set of opinions as to the "Obama Rally" and how long to stay in. I've been thinking of getting out or reducing ?% by cob Tue or Wed at the latest. Some think it may last, at least in a small way until the Jan jobs report. What are your thoughts?--Ron
Click to expand...

Hey RonUSPSretired,

Futures have been up and down +/- 14 points on the S&P so far.

I think we have a Rally tomorrow. Obama has a 84% approval rating, If

we cannot rally off of this we have much Bigger Problems. This is

absolutely a 1 day hypothesis. I Love to Buy when Everything is Red.

Many times when Futures start off Negative We reverse course and end

Positive. I do not make my final decision until approx 11:30 EST.



Let me put my Head in the Blender....

Up DJIA Tomorrow + 300

Futures Currently down DJIA - 76 and S&P 10.00
 
I'm very concerned with market futures which are extending their slide today over 1.5 percent. I wasn't expecting to see these kind of numbers leading into President's Inauguration Day. Overseas markets are down across the board. Market sentiment appears to have snapped.

I'm getting that feeling again that the market is going to begin a fresh downleg and test the October 2008 lows within January. I don't think we will have any problems hitting 700's this week. Current S&P futures indicate we are going to open on or below the lower Bollinger Band on the S&P. In my opinion, the market has already accepted that we are ready to move to lower levels and definitely test that October low.

I don't know when it will be safe to get back in...but the old adage, the first week in January so goes the rest of the year appears to be unfortunately coming true as we enter this week trades.

I've been doing some shopping this week at Home Depot and Lowes and it was a ghost town. Yikes. I also went shopping at several tile and wood flooring stores and found them suffering with business way off. I asked them how business was and they said that "it is not looking to good". They are hoping it will pick back up soon or else.
 
Last edited:
felixthecat said:
I'm very concerned with market futures which are extending their slide today near 1.5 percent. I wasn't expecting to see these kind of numbers leading into President's Inauguration Day. Overseas markets are down across the board. Market sentiment appears to have snapped.

I'm getting that feeling again that the market is going to begin a fresh downleg and test the October 2008 lows within January. I don't think we will have any problems hitting 700's this week. Current S&P futures indicate we are going to open on or below the lower Bollinger Band on the S&P. In my opinion, the market has already accepted that we are ready to move to move lower and test that October low.

I don't know when it will be safe to get back in...but the old adage, the first week in January so goes the rest of the year appears to be unfortunately coming true as we enter this week trades.

I've been doing some shopping this week at Home Depot and Lowes and it was a ghost town. Yikes. I also went shopping at several tile and wood flooring stores and found them suffering with business way off. I asked them how business was and they said that "it is not looking to good". They are hoping it will pick back up soon or else.
Click to expand...


We are at the lowes, what is another 700 points. I think we will test the

lowes. But not tomorrow. Isn't it Fun..... :nuts:

Now we are down 140 DJIA and 17 S&P points.

Now think, If we go down from here can we hit S&P 850 again before the

end of the month ?

It is not an easy ride. It's Crazy... :)
 
poolman said:
We are at the lowes, what is another 700 points. I think we will test the

lowes. But not tomorrow. Isn't it Fun..... :nuts:

Now we are down 140 DJIA and 17 S&P points.

Now think, If we go down from here can we hit S&P 850 again before the

end of the month ?

It is not an easy ride. It's Crazy... :)
Click to expand...

My decision to get out on Friday was not an easy one. While the market was not oversold, another week of selling might put the markets into oversold, setting up for another end of the month rally. I'm was just betting that the markets will end lower than last Friday's close.
 
350zCommTech said:
My decision to get out on Friday was not an easy one. While the market was not oversold, another week of selling might put the markets into oversold, setting up for another end of the month rally. I'm was just betting that the markets will end lower than last Friday's close.
Click to expand...

Your right 350Z,

I'm trying to play the plus side out with the option's we are allowed.

Depending on tomorrow if we go down

I have to figure out is this the High of the Month ?

I cannot explain everything although I'm playing the Best I can.

:)
 
poolman said:
Your right 350Z,

I'm trying to play the plus side out with the option's we are allowed.

Depending on tomorrow if we go down

I have to figure out is this the High of the Month ?

I cannot explain everything although I'm playing the Best I can.

:)
Click to expand...

Yup, with this market, it could get oversold very quickly. With our limited IFTs, it's almost impossible to catch the bottom.

The bad part is that if the market breaks down from here, we'll probably see a test of 740. That is some serious pain that one has to sit through.
 
poolman said:
Your right 350Z,

I'm trying to play the plus side out with the option's we are allowed.

Depending on tomorrow if we go down

I have to figure out is this the High of the Month ?

I cannot explain everything although I'm playing the Best I can.

:)
Click to expand...

I'm trying to divine same. Nice little updraft you caught last week in S. Good work.

N225 and AORD both down over 3% this evening. A harbinger of things to come I wonder?
 
I'm Riding this Train. We are closer to the lowes than we have been for

the last 2 month's.

Pull out now and be sorry when we get a nice bounce. :)

100% - S
 
poolman said:
I'm Riding this Train. We are closer to the lowes than we have been for

the last 2 month's.

Pull out now and be sorry when we get a nice bounce. :)

100% - S
Click to expand...

I agree. Da Boyz look to be striking up some fear this morning prior to taking it higher. Still, volatility may be with us for a few more days.
 
coolhand said:
I agree. Da Boyz look to be striking up some fear this morning prior to taking it higher. Still, volatility may be with us for a few more days.
Click to expand...

The Fear Level is Ultra High. This is the time to Buy and Ride. I agree with

the Volatility. Part of the Game as you know.
 
It's so hard to know how to trade with the IFT rules now. The problem is we now look at it on a monthly basis.....and that makes us think we must trade something every month.....and must make a profit every month. But, then we can get ourselves in a fix by feeling we must trade.

It's looking like we will test the lows of Nov.....I don't know that....but, just about everyone else seems to be forecasting that. That's why I decided to wait it out, reach that low, and then take a "chance" that we won't penetrate that low....'cause we might. I wish you luck PM. I know you wish you were buying in today, or later, but, we can't call them all right, that's for sure. And you are certainly doing the right thing, I think, and hope, by staying in right now and not selling low. It will surely be back up eventually, but, may be after that low, or lower, is reached.

Where's that crystal ball when it need it?!?!?

Lobo :)
 
poolman said:
I'm Riding this Train. We are closer to the lowes than we have been for

the last 2 month's.

Pull out now and be sorry when we get a nice bounce. :)

100% - S
Click to expand...

Agreed, the line in the sand (by my estimate) is holding for C & S, but I sure wish I had dumped my I-Fund a long time ago...

20% C-Fund 820=Run to safety.
50% S-Fund 350=Run for the hills...
30% I-Fund Already too late to bail, so I'll hold

Best of luck to everyone trying to ride the derailed Obama train.
 
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