Poolman's Account Talk

[nnuut]

S & P 1255
I believe will be the pivot point
with maybe a bounce or two.
Back to Work.
Mar 15, 2011 low, Very possible!
The 200 Day MA could come into play.

 

[poolman]

The Market's did exactly what I thought they where going to do. After the 12:00 Noon IFT cutoff time the markets headed South. Now we have confirmation that the markets are going lower. We may get a bounce tomorrow / we may not. It is going to take some pretty good news to change the trend for now.

I'm still looking for the S&P 1255 as a place where the markets are going to say this is enough. If they don't then well You know what happen's....

I'm not trying to time the swing day perfectly but I would like to be within 20 S&P points so depending on tomorrow I may push 50% in. We will see...:blink:
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[poolman]

 

[poolman]

My Gut Indicator is telling me

Tomorrow will be a Negative Day.

 

[FAB1]

My Gut Indicator is telling me

Tomorrow will be a Negative Day.

DO you have a chart for that Gut indicator? Since we capitulated late in the day, and not much in the red I tend to be a little more optimistic, its also going to depend on what Mr. Dollar Bill does. So far my 50% I fund has helped to save my neck in this trade

 

[poolman]

DO you have a chart for that Gut indicator? Since we capitulated late in the day, and not much in the red I tend to be a little more optimistic, its also going to depend on what Mr. Dollar Bill does. So far my 50% I fund has helped to save my neck in this trade

Yes the I - Fund has faired better in this downdraft which is not done imo.

I - Fund should have gained some tonight, Dollar $Index down.

S - Fund Neutral to a couple pennies to the plus side.

 

[poolman]

 

[poolman]

Heres a little Head's Up. I'm glad I made the move I made today. I feel very comfortable with it. I'm hoping to get out of this trade with a positive 1.69 - 4.00 % percent increase over my 8.31% standing now.
I have something involved in the mix with my decision here and that is I'm leaving with my neighbor June 21-26 to Gilbert West Virginia The Hatfield Mccoy Trails (Rockhouse Trail system). We are taking a mini vacation to go 4 wheeling every day that we are there. Wednesday the 22'nd I have a 104 mile adventure planned for us all by way of 4 wheeling. I'm very stoked about going. Anyway I don't know if I will have we-fi where I am staying. The Motel say's it has it but we will see. By the way I am literally staying in this Motel.
http://www.mtnbreezemotel.com/

So depending on the wi-fi I may or may be posting during that time frame.
Just a little Head's up.
Thanks!
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[JTH]

I am not normally a fan of mixed allocations, but under these situation, I think what you did in this circumstance was actually subtle yet brilliant. I think your 50% in the G-Fund (vs the F-Fund) is the wiser trade as you don't get tugged from the potential of an under-performance in bonds, should the stocks decide to rally from here. Well played!

 

[poolman]

 

[poolman]

Ok, Folks, I thought I would throw in another two cent of my opinions here.

If your worried Don't be, YET.

I had a feeling today might have been a down day yesterday that is why I went 100% I - Fund to hopefully soften the hurt. If your wondering why did I even make a move seeing as I was only 50% In yesterday it is because I believe we are close to the turnaround and I do want to be fully invested.

Today is a crappy day. We are pricing in a Default on Greece. If Greece where to default tomorrow it's priced in already. That is my opinion. We still may have a little more hurt to come. On June 6, I said I believe the low will be S&P500 at 1255.

I'm not going to let Mr Market shake my tree unless we violate that #. That is my line in the sand though we violate that and back to G I go. We still have allot of trading day's left in June. I'm will to bet this is the month the low gets put in and we move higher. I also think the possibility of not having a for lack of a name "QE3" is being priced in. We get some type of a QE3 and BOOM up we go. I'm not counting on it though.

I'm ready to walk away from this today and go to work.

 

[bjean]

Thanks for the reassurance, this is pretty painful but I dont want to bail like I usually do and miss the upswing.:suspicious:

 

[FAB1]

A perfect whipsaw day to cause the weak to quail in fear. Too deep in to chance missing the upturn it could be hugh!

 

[poolman]

What a day we had today. It sure did quiet the board. Everyone is of in a state of shock, I admit I'm pretty shocked. I hope what the S&P futures are showing isn't correct. I don't think it is. So the Dow is closing in on almost 1000 points lower than our most recent High and still moving down fairly easy like the Bull's grabbed there nuts and ran. When we finally do get the turnaround I must remind myself How easy it seemed to move upward day after day after day.

In reality everyone should have a point where they say enough is enough and move to safety. The Tsp Administration really screwed us my only letting us have 2 Ift's a month. The markets are entirely to volatile. A good investor has No flexibility to make correct decisions. It forces us to take losses for too long a period of time in a down market. Then when you think a good day is coming and you just want to make a quick in and out move you can't unless your willing to be out the rest of the month. The Rule is Absolutely pathetic with the Volatility we are having.

I'm thinking Monday is gonna be a Doozy of a day. I hope we capitulate. I'm thinking if we blow off 2 or 3 hundred Dow points the Bull's will come to the plate.

But for now pricing is still not good enough or to high in the investor's eyes I guess because we seem to be drifting downward at a faster pace as the day's go and I'm not seeing it slowing really at all yet. 1000 Dow points, Was all these points a Bubble? I guess this is what you call "Ice cream with the cake", "gravy on the mash potatoes, "Butter on the bread" "Whipped Cream in your Latte. Just froth on valuing our stock market. The stock market is the most Volatile that I have ever seen it in 30 year's of being involved with it.

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[amoeba]

What a day we had today. It sure did quiet the board. Everyone is of in a state of shock, I admit I'm pretty shocked.

A. I hope what the S&P futures are showing isn't correct.

I don't think it is.

B. everyone should have a point where they say enough is enough and move to safety. The Tsp Administration really screwed us my only letting us have 2 Ift's a month.

C. I'm thinking Monday is gonna be a Doozy of a day. I hope we capitulate. I'm thinking if we blow off 2 or 3 hundred Dow points the Bull's will come to the plate.

D. The stock market is the most Volatile that I have ever seen it in 30 year's of being involved with it.

QUOTE]


As usual - packed with analysis - and more to the pt. than the videos, here's what I think on the above

A. Ignore the futures. Anything could happen. But I think monday and tuesday will be some big move. There has been pretty consistent large volumes. There are alot of fingers on the button.

B. So true - and so the minority of thinking on this forum; just about everyone else thinks they have to sell for a gain or a minimal loss - and hangs on longer than they should. I have been one of them (last month, for example). JTH knew better, and ditched after his initial gain.

C. Yes siree. And tuesday too. And I would agree if the selloff sharpens, it could result in an equivalent or greater bounce - to at least the low 1,300's. Yet - what has gone on is pretty consistent controlled higher volume selling with only modest increases in volatility indices. Not just a few days of selling - but a week or more of it.

D. Well - if you're talking flip flops in sentiment; I agree. Where did all the buyers go? What changed? Is there a sudden disbelief in the recovery based on a single jobs report? Anxiety about the upcoming economic data? Oil. China. Europe. No QE3. What? It is this - my misunderstanding of what's caused the change in sentiment - that is causing hesitation to go back in. It's not like there was a tsunami. Saving grace may be that most investors are not as poor at it as I am, so hopefully there aren't a whole mass of others with my temporary "trader's block" mentality.

There are wild cards in all of this. The eco reports could come out on or way above targets, and there could be some other form of governmental intervention the likes of which I have never been able to forecast.

 

[Birchtree]

Amorba,

You simply need to think longer term. We've had multiple consolidations on the way up since the March '09 lows and they've all been buying opportunities. As a disciplined buy and holder I'm making money by being patient. My oceanic account has come within a pubic ($24K) of making $2M off the March '09 bottom - that's just a fact as of April 29th. Now I'm looking at some devaluation but that will pass and the bull will continue because the market discounts the future. If you believe that earnings are sustainable, stocks certainly do not look expensive yet. Monetary policy works with a lag. Why should getting rich take so long?

 

[amoeba]

The projected earnings of the SPY, $95, I say will be proven eventually to be baloney, inflated by stimuli, and subject to revisions to the downside. Try $80. Go divide 1,300 by that and tell me if you think that's a bargain (I don't).

We'll know a little more tomorrow; and and much more as Q2 earnings season arrives, shortly.

Any big news this week either way, is likely to be accompanied by a big move.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Any big news this week either way, is likely to be accompanied by a big move.

That actually sounds positive, coming from you, that encourages me...

 

[poolman]

 

[law87]

Amorba,

You simply need to think longer term. We've had multiple consolidations on the way up since the March '09 lows and they've all been buying opportunities. As a disciplined buy and holder I'm making money by being patient. My oceanic account has come within a pubic ($24K) of making $2M off the March '09 bottom - that's just a fact as of April 29th. Now I'm looking at some devaluation but that will pass and the bull will continue because the market discounts the future. If you believe that earnings are sustainable, stocks certainly do not look expensive yet. Monetary policy works with a lag. Why should getting rich take so long?

Wow nice how much did you start out before 2009