Poolman's Account Talk

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Thanks poolman :o

"socialize the risks and privatize the profits"...yea, lovely

Right now Im thinking Im glad I bailed when I did. Left 3% in for the 1% thing and I am strongly considering pulling that also :confused:
 
What's the Analogy for January.

Something like the first week of January dictates whether the markets will be positive or negative for the rest of the year
OR
If is it the whole month of January dictates the direction of the market for the year ?
 
poolman said:
I was very tempted to dip my toe in the water here to the tune of about 25%.

I'm going to wait until next week. We are sitting on a s&p pivot point of 1113 - 1114. If we break through this I could easily see us testing 1080.

If I would have made the move today I would have gone 25% - C - Fund.

No move for me today. Staying 100% - G.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEF...-yQbiDH56k/s1600-h/VIX+standard+deviation.png
Click to expand...

Thanks for the inside Poolman. These past couple of days has taken a little wind out of my sail or should I say...scares me a bit. I just think this market is inflated with the Tarp money flying around!! or should I say, Tax payers money:(
I like to see everyones insight. We all bring a little something to the table. Well kick back by the Pool brother and lets see how the day ends.

We push lower than where we are right now toward the end of today, not a good sign for monday, we hold in this area or move into positive territory than we are right now, we may see some dip buying Monday..... Just my 2 cents, boy I wish that IFT deadline was later in the day:blink:

Blindman Out! GL everyone!
 
Blindman said:
Thanks for the inside Poolman. These past couple of days has taken a little wind out of my sail or should I say...scares me a bit. I just think this market is inflated with the Tarp money flying around!! or should I say, Tax payers money:(
I like to see everyones insight. We all bring a little something to the table. Well kick back by the Pool brother and lets see how the day ends.

We push lower than where we are right now toward the end of today, not a good sign for Monday, we hold in this area or move into positive territory than we are right now, we may see some dip buying Monday..... Just my 2 cents, boy I wish that IFT deadline was later in the day:blink:

Blindman Out! GL everyone!
Click to expand...

Hi Blindman,

You have taken the right approach so far in the new year. #7 on the Autotracker is a very good achievement - Congratulations.

I think that everyone who is truly interested in there money/retirement is and should be worried. It is truly hard to get and easy to lose.

My Biggest problem is Anxiety. Sometimes it starts to get out of control but I know when that is happening and the best thing for me is to step away if even for 5 minutes to clear my mind.

I try to keep + and - columns for all news that comes out that I think is relevant to the overall big picture and compare it to stock gains and losses for each day. This also helps me think how much of a divergence I think there is from what the market actually has done and to know if we are + or - where the market should be.

A quick Example. The Dow and the S&P are currently both down. The Russel is up slightly. If I where going to make a move today I would not have put any money in the S - Fund. Why ? Because chances are if the Dow and the S&P are up Monday the Russel will be down. This is just a quick example. I don't just do this for the day but I take many day's in consideration to see which funds we have to trade have the Biggest Divergence. I don't really include the I - Fund in this Example because that is a totally different beast related to the dollar although there are other way's to track that fund.

I hope I have helped you and anyone else that is interested. :)
 
poolman said:
I was very tempted to dip my toe in the water here to the tune of about 25%.

I'm going to wait until next week. We are sitting on a s&p pivot point of 1113 - 1114. If we break through this I could easily see us testing 1080.

If I would have made the move today I would have gone 25% - C - Fund.

No move for me today. Staying 100% - G.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEF...-yQbiDH56k/s1600-h/VIX+standard+deviation.png
Click to expand...

The volatility makes it tough to make a fast play with TSP. I was tempted this morning too, and like you was thinking about pushing in 30% or so. Probably between C and S. But I was concerned about how the afternoon trading would go. If we rallied after 1200, I'd be looking for a sell-off on Monday. If we sold off today, I would have more faith in a bounce on Monday or Tuesday, but more selling could also beget more selling. A bounce on Wednesday would not help me if I'm being punished for two three days first.

It'll be interesting to see if the Friday afternoon dip buyers show up today.
 
Blindman said:
Thanks for the inside Poolman. These past couple of days has taken a little wind out of my sail or should I say...scares me a bit. I just think this market is inflated with the Tarp money flying around!! or should I say, Tax payers money:(
I like to see everyones insight. We all bring a little something to the table. Well kick back by the Pool brother and lets see how the day ends.

We push lower than where we are right now toward the end of today, not a good sign for monday, we hold in this area or move into positive territory than we are right now, we may see some dip buying Monday..... Just my 2 cents, boy I wish that IFT deadline was later in the day:blink:

Blindman Out! GL everyone!
Click to expand...

Well I did what Pool thought about and didn't - and wouldn't ya know it, here we are at 11 am PDT, the market did just what blindman was worried about (push lower). Last few hours are starting to look like a stinker.....I can only hope that monday deadcats off 1080.....
 
coolhand said:
The volatility makes it tough to make a fast play with TSP. I was tempted this morning too, and like you was thinking about pushing in 30% or so. Probably between C and S. But I was concerned about how the afternoon trading would go. If we rallied after 1200, I'd be looking for a sell-off on Monday. If we sold off today, I would have more faith in a bounce on Monday or Tuesday, but more selling could also beget more selling. A bounce on Wednesday would not help me if I'm being punished for two three days first.

It'll be interesting to see if the Friday afternoon dip buyers show up today.
Click to expand...

A Couple of Thoughts:

First Yes Temptation is Escalating day after day of this market decline. But as you say "more selling could also beget more selling" is so true. A
10% correction could bring us to DJIA 9630 S&P 1035 and I will only mention P3 because the prediction of P2 seems as of right now to have been an amazing prediction that is playing out. I hope P3 does not play out because who could call that with any accuracy ? and when do you play the bounces within the P3.

Anyway we are due. It's our turn to be on the right side of the plays. And Volatility right now is our friend. All we have seen this market due over the last 10 month's is go UP UP UP. Shoot the leader and winner on the Autotracker last year made 1 IFT. Not taking anything away from him but all it took was Buy it and Hold it. No Forte' involved.

We have seen the Market go up 15 day's in a row. We might witness the Market go down 15 day's in a row.

With such High Volatility and No guarantee's of the Market going UP UP UP the leader on the Autotracker will be more impressive to me.

Yes when we do get the Bounce it could be a 250 point bounce and the lower the market goes and we are not involved in the slide gives us a better opportunity and chance to go up on the turnaround.

Just my thought and opinions. So Far So Good. :)
 
Sorry,

I said I would have my update out by 8:30 and here it is 9:00 :o

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3MWd7rkTzs&feature=sub

_______________________________________________________

Both of these sites below update shortly after the market closes daily. Sometimes the sites are updated through the day. Mostly these two sites involve Elliott wave theory. Some of the Comments are incredibly smart.

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/

_____________________________________________________________


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PCB1efvFCs&feature=sub

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLMm8-n8HNc&feature=sub

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErsBaDYcngw&feature=sub

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-QySJBoIHE&feature=sub
 
Wow, just got sat down behind the computer.....Left work at noon and the market seemed a little flat, I was actually starting to think we may see some support at or around the 50 DMA level, but now I see the market took it in the shorts again. Thanks again PM and CH, you have saved me a few more bucks today. It was hard not to pull the trigger this morning.....
As everyone knows lately, the market had only been taking a short breath (a day or 2 tops) and heading right back up, but boy this is definitely a change in pattern.....
Yo Tom, I think Wall Street is in panic mode!!!:( my hairs on fire,,,my hairs on fire!!!
...... Have a great weekend everyone!

Blindman Out!:cool:
 
Thanks Crabclaw and Blindman,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZE2dPzln5w

http://www.businessinsider.com/prechter-the-2008-crash-was-merely-a-warmup-2009-11

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V_xchudC40&feature=player_embedded

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/01/22/Bernanke-s-Burn-Notice----Why-Now.aspx

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_tYteVIJvv6g/S1o24AnndBI/AAAAAAAABMg/aE2djqIwY6Q/s1600-h/sc.png

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_tYteVIJvv...AABMo/JaZzZoEEaWw/s1600-h/spx++60m+charts.png

Russel or our S - Fund below.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_9Q21sXDAUbU/S1pomvaf0nI/AAAAAAAAAFg/-BUsqjMIyOM/s1600-h/rut012230.PNG

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_9Q21sXDAUbU/S1poseJ3KSI/AAAAAAAAAFo/q32ud2I8-e0/s1600-h/rut012205.PNG

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_9Q21sXDAUbU/S1prPMLlVvI/AAAAAAAAAFw/BEOvnjnJoiw/s1600-h/ruttgtMinor1.PNG
 
oh me.... and here we sit without Dennis to talk about cow do do. Everyone but Prechter puts the downside as temporary... it seems to me. But he says go to cash.
 
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