Playing the I fund

[FundSurfer]

IToday we are again at the bottom of the channel, a drop from here may be an indicator of another change to the market behavior. I am very bullish in my behavior, but I am ready to dial that back if the situation changes.

I agree with Griffin. Since the fund has shot up so fast, there is a significant drop to the next support level. Right now indicators are showing signs of bounce, but time will tell.

 

[Griffin]

Thanks for the vote of confidence Fundsurfer.

Pilgrim, I have my superstitious nature (don't we all?) which tells me I shouldn't say this but google a bump and run chart pattern.

 

[Master]

The bleeding is ending!

Despite the losses in the Japanese market from last night, the European markets have rebounded and the USD is falling against the Euro (but not the Yen). I expect a mildly positive day today.

 

[Pilgrim]

Pilgrim, I have my superstitious nature (don't we all?) which tells me I shouldn't say this but google a bump and run chart pattern.

I like the original name, Bump and Run Formation, or BARF.

Have you plotted EFA and analyzed it for this pattern? You see it bouncing around a top waiting for some trigger to bring a hard fast fall? Will it come from foreign stocks crashing, dollar rebound, or both?

 

[Wizard]

The bleeding is ending!

Medic, medic. You may want to look at the chart of EFA.

 

[Spartan]

Rest on the CPI report, much still does...

AGG is showing life, sometimes inflation DOES mean inflation. The F fund will outperform inflation, thats why it's there. It has a bit of catching up to do.

 

[Wizard]

AGG is showing life, sometimes inflation DOES mean inflation. The F fund will outperform inflation, thats why it's there. It has a bit of catching up to do.

I think AGG is showing signs of life due to flight to quality.

None of the TSP funds will outperform inflation.

All rallies in stocks are being sold, I think to buy short term bonds.

 

[Spartan]

Outperform inflation, the I and S funds will...

 

[Pilgrim]

The I fund is so treacherous, and so potentially rewarding because (as we all know) it offers exposure to both foreign stocks and to moves in the dollar. Does anyone have a feel for what that implies for the validity of "technical analysis?" Do such things as "head and shoulder patterns" and all the other chart patterns we hear about, work at all with something this complicated? I would be interested in hearing if there is any history of successfully predicting movements in EFA using that kind of analysis.

 

[Wizard]

Outperform inflation, the I and S funds will...

Inflation (high yields) kills the S fund - NASDAQ lost 77% plus during the feds last fight to contain inflation in 2000-2002. S fund data only goes back to 2001 but lost 9% in 2001 (in only 8 months - no less) and 18% in 2002.

I fund will do worse. Like us most foreign countries can not handle higher yields. Major housing bubbles all over (Australia, UK, Japan, Germany, etc).

Moral of this story: Cheap credit because expensive credit. Expenses go up and stocks price will go down because people have to funnel more to pay to live.

 

[Griffin]

I like the original name, Bump and Run Formation, or BARF.

Have you plotted EFA and analyzed it for this pattern? You see it bouncing around a top waiting for some trigger to bring a hard fast fall? Will it come from foreign stocks crashing, dollar rebound, or both?

Unfortuantly no, not since April. Back then I decided to put it on the radar as a possibility. I'll probably take a look at it tonight.

As far as triggers go, I'm not prepared to point to a single one. Are you familiar with the Murder on the Orient Express Theory?

 

[Spaf]

The I fund is so treacherous, and so potentially rewarding because (as we all know) it offers exposure to both foreign stocks and to moves in the dollar. Does anyone have a feel for what that implies for the validity of "technical analysis?" Do such things as "head and shoulder patterns" and all the other chart patterns we hear about, work at all with something this complicated? I would be interested in hearing if there is any history of successfully predicting movements in EFA using that kind of analysis.

The nearest thing we have is the [EFA] ETF fund and the [$USD] fund, or similiar. We don't have a "chart" that tracks the I-fund per say. As you mention it is a double edge sord; price and dollar. However, a lot of funds track the US market. The Wilshire 5000 is the overall US market. The USAToday site at http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-markets.asp is pretty good. A lot of vestors have been going to internationals. Just look at the foreign fund of Barzil [EWZ] a great performer, but it can hand you your head on a platter too. My opinion, stay away from sectors, research first, and try to buy low.

 

[Scout]

Long time lurker, first post.

I have been in the I 50%, S 50% for six months, before that C 90% and I 10% for a year. The I fund has been very good to me, but I watch it very close and have a pre-set exit plan that I re-evaluate at the begining of the month, 8% drop and I'm out, so far I have not had to use the plan. I've tried to move in and out but it doesn't work out, I usually loose. So I just stay in and dollar cost average into the fund. I also have money over at Vangaurd in an IRA above my 5% becouse they offer broader selection that the TSP.


My question to the group is how do I tell how where the money is flowing, the market cap of each fund if you will, with respect to the other funds. I read somewhere that during the last down turn so much money was moved to the safer funds. I want to avoid the herd and be a contrarian invester.

Thanks -Scout

 

[Spaf]

Scout,

See: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/site_map.htm

Look at Volume Indicators.

A lot of the free charts will use the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) as a money movement indicator. For pay sites check with tsptalk.

Spaf

 

[James48843]

My question to the group is how do I tell how where the money is flowing, the market cap of each fund if you will, with respect to the other funds. I read somewhere that during the last down turn so much money was moved to the safer funds. I want to avoid the herd and be a contrarian invester.

Thanks -Scout

Scout:

First, understand that TSP fund holders money is just a drop in the overall bucket of where the money is going. You have to see the entire S&P 500 , for example, to see moneyflows in or out of "C" fund stocks. You can't watch the amount in "C" fund itself anywhere on a daily basis.

TSP board itself only puts out quarterly reports, not daily figures, so how much cash is in each TSP fund is not an easy find.

Money flow is just one indicator. There are a lot of other factors that play on the value of the market. This past week was a good example of herd mentality of selling out when everyone else was selling out- on the downside. In past years I've seen stocks go down the week before income tax day, as those who owed money sold shares to cover tax bills. Of course, that was back in the heyday late 90's when people were actually making money,

 

[Master]

MSCI is at -(0.304%). However, the dollar has been going down since the close of the european markets, to the point that at closing the EFA was -0.29% and now is at +0.03%. I expect at most a couple of pennies loss or a gain of one if the USD trend keeps going down.

 

[robo]

Long time lurker, first post.

I have been in the I 50%, S 50% for six months, before that C 90% and I 10% for a year. The I fund has been very good to me, but I watch it very close and have a pre-set exit plan that I re-evaluate at the begining of the month, 8% drop and I'm out, so far I have not had to use the plan. I've tried to move in and out but it doesn't work out, I usually loose. So I just stay in and dollar cost average into the fund. I also have money over at Vangaurd in an IRA above my 5% becouse they offer broader selection that the TSP.


My question to the group is how do I tell how where the money is flowing, the market cap of each fund if you will, with respect to the other funds. I read somewhere that during the last down turn so much money was moved to the safer funds. I want to avoid the herd and be a contrarian invester.

Thanks -Scout

Scout,

In my opinion your INVESTMENT DECISIONS have been excellent the last couple of years. I put the word investment in CAPs because you made very few moves. That's the plan for intermediate and longer term investing. We have been in a Bull run for some time so your decision to stay invested has served you well.

Some of us here make short term moves and try and time the Market. Some on this board are the best I have seen at Market Timing and I get several professional services, ( Market Timers). Could you have made more? Yes, but it's all about risk / reward and you could have made less!

James and Spaf pointed out some sites to track the money flow, but it's huge and hard to track all of it. I'll list below a couple of Professionals that track the money flow pretty good and also Sentiment.

If you want to invest using Sentiment Jason Goepfert @ Sentiment Trader site is the best I have seen for using Sentiment and contrarian invester principles. He is not free, but the site is worth the data you get. You can find stuff for free, but you have to spend a lot of time looking for it. I don't mind paying for good data. The second is Mark Young's weekly news letter it's also excellent. Both cover what you asked about. I'm not sure if that is what you are looking for, but they both do a great job. Tom posts Jason Goepfert charts all the time.

I never make investment decisions on any single TA or Market Timer recommendations. At the same time some will have you short, long or cash for the same ETF. Which one is correct or is the most accurate is the one to lean towards. Track records are important, but the final choice is yours!! After-all it's your money!

Trading with good data and TA's is like playing Black Jack and you can count cards. You can't win every hand, but you increase your odds and win more than you lose. NO ONE EVER KNOWS FOR SURE!!

If your going to start making IFT's use caution!!! Keep reading the folks on this board. I think some do have a crystal ball!!

The best Contrarian Indicator we have here is Tom! When he gets in the Market GO TO CASH!!! ( JOKE TOM )

Take care and Good Investing / Trading! Still waiting for a good trend up or down. This trading range is getting old, but some here have made a bundle none-the-less.

http://www.sentimentrader.com/

http://www.wallstreetsentiment.com/isa.htm

http://www.garsworld.com/Contrarians.htm

 

[sugarandspice]

Minus .08 cents

 

[bkrownd]

I am now the proud owner of 25 more shares of I-fund. If it's still down next week I'll include some in my payroll contribution. I'd like to buy more DODFX, as well.

 

[Wizard]

Japan went into the red and Australia is right behind.

Amazing how oversold these markets are and not getting a bounce. Reminds me of May 2000. Just kept going down and down - day after day.