Playing the I fund

[roguewave]

Tomorrow should be interesting. Are the markets reacting to a liquidity squeeze? If so, tomorrow will be much worse then today. The G8 has pretty much set the course for the Dollar suggesting that there will be no intervention on their part thus allowing the market to do the heavy lifting of deriving the appropriate exchange rate reference each currency. Hang on because it's really going to get wild.

 

[Gilligan]

Japan just closed.
Nikkei 225 -1.54%
Nikkei 300 -1.39%

 

[JOVARN]

The yen's rise clearly spooked investors as heavy losses overnight on Wall Street added to the concerns over the currency and resulted in an extended losing streak in stocks to a fourth day.

"US stocks tumbled, while the US dollar dipped below 110 yen, so the fall here is natural," said Mitsushige Akino, chief fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management.

Despite the downturn, he remains optimistic. "I don't think the (Nikkei) index will dip further, considering strong economic fundamentals," he said.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=5641396&subject=general&action=article

 

[Griffin]

Japan– Nikkei 300: (1.39) adjusted for Yen: (1.02) = small drop, approx (.40)
England– FTSE 100: (1.47) adjusted for Pound: (.75) = moderate drop, approx (.80)
France – CAC 40: (1.60) adjusted for Euro: (.55) = large drop, approx (1.10)
Germany – DAX: (1.39) adjusted for Euro: (.55) = large drop, approx (1.00)

By the time you weigh it all together, I think were looking at about a (.80) for MSCI EAFE if things do not change much until close. However, all of these indexes are riding low in their channels, and things could change quickly. If, I had not bought in yesterday, I would be moving today. This is the third time in a row we have seen a consolidation following a FOMC meeting. History would suggest that we will get a few days of chop – it’s healthy for the market, and will lead to another bull run.

 

[Pilgrim]

Jumped back into I fund for today, gonna lose big for doing it. Trade gap came in smaller than expected so dollar is spiking upward against both euro and yen. Worst of all worlds: indexes getting hammered and dollar recovering. I need to leave early and have a stiff drink.

But then; I only jumped in half way (50%G 50%I). If I listen to Griffin (above), I would take a deep breath and go 100I by deadline. At 11:30, I'll get out the scales and calipers, check the state of the cajones, and decide.

 

[James48843]

NIKKEI 225 05/12 - 10:54

16,456.98 -405.16 OUCH! Do ya think this is the dip we have been waiting for??
About 2.5%!!! DIVE, DIVE, DIVE!!

Actually, I am amazed that Japan regained some near the end. That shows me that there might be more strength in there than I thought. Let's see what happens today. I am going to sit on the sidelines in my nice "G" fund for a day or two and see how much downside is still there. Then I plan to swoop in and buy cheaper back into "I". We'll see how she goes today.

 

[Griffin]

But then; I only jumped in half way (50%G 50%I). If I listen to Griffin (above), I would take a deep breath and go 100I by deadline. At 11:30, I'll get out the scales and calipers, check the state of the cajones, and decide.

Pilgrim,
A month ago, I would have been locked up in the G at this point, because I was assuming each peak was leading to a the start of a 5-10% pullback. Subsequently, I missed about 5% gains. If the market drops again significantly over the next day or two....I may bail. This is monkey math....miss 5% gains or lose 2-3% at the start of a pullback, I'll take the one time lose, in exchange for six months of gains. I am buying into the 1995 Theory, and the Four year curse theory. (sounds like double talk)....but what I mean is I am going to stay in unless there is an obvious reason to get out. Actually, it's pretty simple.

 

[roguewave]

I fund will be brutal today unless the exchange rates buffer some of the hit. Hang in there, it's never smooth sailing as some would lead you to believe. These are trading swings and have nothing to do with any serious changes in the fundamentals.

 

[Pilgrim]

What is the deal with the premarket (RT-ECN) that shows up on the YAHOO page we link to for market returns? Right now, premarket says EFA is flat with a slight (0.01%) gain while AGG is going to get killed. What is this stuff based on?

 

[FundSurfer]

At 11:30, I'll get out the scales and calipers, check the state of the cajones, and decide.

Thanks Pilgrim, I needed that... said wiping tears of laughter from my eyes

 

[ayla]

I don't remember hearing anyone say that the I-Fund wasn't volatile. I've put my seat belt on at least for a few days.

 

[jdubya]

At 11:30, I'll get out the scales and calipers, check the state of the cajones, and decide.

​

 

[The_Technician]

Pilgrim,
A month ago, I would have been locked up in the G at this point, because I was assuming each peak was leading to a the start of a 5-10% pullback. Subsequently, I missed about 5% gains. If the market drops again significantly over the next day or two....I may bail. This is monkey math....miss 5% gains or lose 2-3% at the start of a pullback, I'll take the one time lose, in exchange for six months of gains. I am buying into the 1995 Theory, and the Four year curse theory. (sounds like double talk)....but what I mean is I am going to stay in unless there is an obvious reason to get out. Actually, it's pretty simple.

This is just trying to save you some heartache.....

Well, I missed out on the recent market jump since the Jan start by poor speculation and taking some time off on vacation....when I got back it was really too late to get into it.....but since then I had gotten a better viewpoint of what was happening....the current viewpoint in any circumstance says its not a good time to be in period....whether it drops only for a few days or for a month......of course this is a matter of trusting my information at this point because its some recently derived data that tells me this....it did tell me though to stay out over the last several weeks of late, even though there were gains, it wasn't worth the risk until the info was better understood....now it is the time to wait it out by being out.....and I just wanted to emphasize this to you guys in a constructive manner.......its late in the game I know (you have to start somewhere, damned if its now though), but still I'm telling you its there.....and I have made this an attempt to inform you.....

Of course it may change on daily news....but at this point I doubt it.....the market had the jitters before yesterday anyway.....I had date predictions over a month ago that said watch out in this time period.......so its all pointing to something.....and everyone knows I haven't liked the situation for about a year now......

If you don't know, I haven't been satisfied with my info and its been hard to time the markets.......I feel if I can get the G predicted I can do it for the other funds as well.....I'm trying to get "Carnac" to get the new crystal ball working in a more useful manner, you may say its getting a "tune up".........info is starting to come thru fairly clearly at this point....and indicates this from past market performance.....the only unknown at this time is the value of the dollar.....I have read that the value should only drop 10% more, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the I fund will continue to climb.....it has other factors that will influence as well and I firmly believe the fund will drop along with the C and S funds.....

I am only informing you of this in an urgent manner because of the circumstance.......otherwise I would have let the thing prove itself over time, but due to the situation, I/we don't have that luxury........

So I have informed you to the best that I know......now its wait and see.

Take it with a grain of salt, but take it as serious as I have.....

 

[Wizard]

I think those on the long side in Euroland are checking their cajones right about now. :blink: Ouch.

 

[FundSurfer]

This is just trying to save you some heartache.....
So I have informed you to the best that I know......now its wait and see.

Take it with a grain of salt, but take it as serious as I have.....

Technician, if you find your words of wisdom falling on deaf ears, I think I know part of the reason:

Technician -0.05%, G-fund +1.5%, F-fund -0.75%, C-fund 5.51%, S-fund 9.9%, I-fund 14.04% for the year as of the end of April.

I agree that it is good to be on the sidelines today, but the trend with the I-fund has been very strong. I agree with the arguement that says look for this as an opportunity to move more into the I-fund.

Dollar is dropping and should drop another 4-5% over the next couple months. Americans are moving money out of US stocks and moving money overseas which is helping foriegn markets.

Today may be a small correction, but that does not mean the I-fund will drop like a rock from here.

 

[The_Technician]

Technician, if you find your words of wisdom falling on deaf ears, I think I know part of the reason:

Technician -0.05%, G-fund +1.5%, F-fund -0.75%, C-fund 5.51%, S-fund 9.9%, I-fund 14.04% for the year as of the end of April.

I agree that it is good to be on the sidelines today, but the trend with the I-fund has been very strong. I agree with the arguement that says look for this as an opportunity to move more into the I-fund.

Dollar is dropping and should drop another 4-5% over the next couple months. Americans are moving money out of US stocks and moving money overseas which is helping foriegn markets.

Today may be a small correction, but that does not mean the I-fund will drop like a rock from here.

Yes.....its been a time of reflection and correction on this side.....deaf ears, maybe, then it is so....lets see what a few of months of "experience" will net then.....I'm game.

At least I can say "I did let you know".....

 

[mlk_man]

You've been "letting us know" for over a year now, that's the problem. Guess you might finally get to wauler in your glory. For a couple days anyway.......

 

[Spartan]

It is quite funny too see the world follow the US markets. Soon they will realize its not their economy which is slumping, it is ours.

The DJ will fall another 18% and the dollar will fall another 16% or so to settle around USDX 72.

The I fund, albeit down at the moment, is still the only safe haven against the inevitable further decline in the USD.

 

[The_Technician]

It is quite funny too see the world follow the US markets. Soon they will realize its not their economy which is slumping, it is ours.

The DJ will fall another 18% and the dollar will fall another 16% or so to settle around USDX 72.

The I fund, albeit down at the moment, is still the only safe haven against the inevitable further decline in the USD.

I believe we will see that their economy depends on ours.....I feel the I fund won't be able to hold up, the dollar will not just drop and drop and drop....it will stop at best the I fund could maintain status quo..........but hey, I've been feeling (crying wolf some would say) that for a year now......whats new......???? Just continuing to get a handle on it.....

MM ..... I wouldn't follow you into the abyss for nothing personally.....

 

[FundSurfer]

and the dollar will fall another 16% or so to settle around USDX 72.

What makes you think it will go so low? That would really crash all the world markets as well. Actually, I don't think the foriegn governments with huge holdings of dollars will let it slip that far, myself.