Playing the I fund

[Wheels]

Anyone else got a fairly reliable prediction?

I guess a prediction only becomes reliable after it comes true.

With the Fed getting ready to stop rate increases sometime soon, and Europe just getting under way with rate increases, and Japan getting ready to end their long term 0 rate policy, all the talking heads are saying that the dollar should fall from here.

Don't shoot the messenger,

Dave
<><

 

[pointman72]

I guess a prediction only becomes reliable after it comes true. <><

Thanks!

Guess I should have used the term "creditable" instead of "reliable". LOL

 

[CheapShot]

I am guessing two more 1/4 point rate increases, and Bernake is done. When would those be, are they like every 8 weeks, or are there some set dates when the Fed makes the increase?

 

[CheapShot]

Article from the Washington Post, rate might not stop at the next meeting could rise due to the largest increase in the CPI in a long time, March had a .3% rise. Check the article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/19/AR2006041902485.html

 

[Soldat]

Dollar dropping and Nikkei is poised to rally. RSI points to the market moving higher.

 

[pointman72]

Dollar dropping and Nikkei is poised to rally. RSI points to the market moving higher.

.935 today, shouldnhave gotten back in the I fund.

 

[Wheels]

.935 today

Another huge day up for the I fund (assuming no FV). I fund is going to be impossible to catch. I have a few co-workers who you wouldn't necessarily consider saavy or sophisticated investors. But they look at 2004 returns and they look at 2005 returns and they said, hmmm where am going to put my money for 2006? I think I'll just plant it here in the I fund and forget about it. Meanwhile I study and analyze, and read, and watch the Fed, and watch the 10 year note, and watch the price of gold, and watch the price of oil, and watch the dollar and I make my moves and I'm getting my clock cleaned.

Those guys are starting to look pretty saavy and sophisticated. (And don't they just love to point it out).

Dave
<><

 

[pointman72]

Another huge day up for the I fund (assuming no FV). I fund is going to be impossible to catch. Dave
<><

This is going to be one of those times where not being technically proficient in the market is definitely going to help me. I know what the historical data shows for next week and I could probably come up with 20 reasons not to get back into the I fund. But unless something occurs over the weekend, I think I'm just going to have to get back on this bull and ride it till it drops.

Soldat you better get a double saddle for this beast cause I'm a comin...

 

[post]

Re: Playing the C fund

Birchtree, I know you have been long the C fund. I just unloaded my I fund position thinking that it needs a rest and went long C fund thinking it would be a little safer than the I fund. Hope I didn't bale too soon.

 

[Soldat]

Look at the chart for the 3 month USD-/-EURO. I am VERY bullish on the Euro. It looks like the USD may climb on the EURO for a bit then hit another low. Especially when the ECB hikes it. Inflation is becoming more of an issue for the ECB, and they have room to hike for a while. Much more room than FOMC. Even if US hikes it here to heaven, people are losing faith in the dollar. Iran will crush ALL faith in the dollar. As is, no one likes a dirty and long war; we like the short sweet ones where we can return with oil contracts and vassal/puppet regimes. I know I do. We live in the greatest empire on earth and life is good.

As far as the I fund? I expect the Yen to gain on the USD. It appears to me that both the Yen and Euro may lose a small bit of ground in the short term. I fully expect to see the dollar trading at 105 Yen. If it goes lower than that, it will probably be a lot lower. We pretty much see 105Y as solid ground, if it breaks that, who knows where it will end up. As for the EURO, I really cant say. Except that I am REALLY bullish on the Euro.

The I fund, correct me if I am wrong, tracks down the ^N300.
52wk Range:211.19 - 344.66 Thats the nikkei I am talking about! Thats a 52 week of 63.2% Can you show me a bigger bull (not talking EWZ, ILF, EWC) {in TSP?}

The 52 week for the FTSE is 28.06% The YTD is around 9%? I see the FTSE going higher even from here. Buckle down, today we will most likely FV. Today we break 20$ a share. Monday, the Nikkei is poised for rally. Lets hope it doesnt get scared of the weak S&P, or the falling dollar which hurts japanese exports. The nikkei is rising and RSI is falling. The dollar is dropping. FOMC shows weakness. Iran shows strength. Housing market is cooling. Gas is flying. I love it. Either way, in the end, I always win.

 

[CheapShot]

Meanwhile I study and analyze, and read, and watch the Fed, and watch the 10 year note, and watch the price of gold, and watch the price of oil, and watch the dollar and I make my moves and I'm getting my clock cleaned.

Those guys are starting to look pretty saavy and sophisticated. (And don't they just love to point it out).

Dave
<><

I've always used the following strategy Dave, "know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away, know when to run". This is who Dave who has to put up with a smartass like myself.

You know I like the I Fund as well, I've been pretty lucky so far moving things around, but it might be coming time to park it right there for a while in the I Fund. Personally Dave thanks for all the help.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Wheels....I have the same strategy, and pretty much the same results..doh.

 

[LA_Guy]

My view is almost identical to Soldat. US dollars will continue to stay at current level until the next election. Gold and oil price will continue to soar higher and higher. Gold price will surpass $700/oz or more and oil price will reach $100/barrel by the end of this year. That is my prediction and I'm bullish on I-fund.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

dollar opening down .31, 8 month low

 

[Soldat]

I saw that too, and has tumbled even lower to 115.88

Did you read the articles in "Asian News" that Ichiro posted (thanks Ichiro!)

Didnt see it having this much of a sudden impact.

 

[Wimpy]

US dollars will continue to stay at current level until the next election. Gold and oil price will continue to soar higher and higher. Gold price will surpass $700/oz or more and oil price will reach $100/barrel by the end of this year. That is my prediction and I'm bullish on I-fund.

I think we will hit $700 gold and $85 a barrel for crude no later than the end of May. The dollar is on a slippery slope and looking terribly injured. Gold, oil, and the I-Fund will be benefactors of a weaker dollar for several more years.

 

[oldschool]

So the yen and euro go up, Japanese and Euro exporters decline. Hmm. What happens to US based exporters? What's the figure, something like 40% of S&P revenues from overseas? When those profits come back into USD, a nice pop in USD earnings. We'll see in about 6 months I suppose.

 

[Master]

The Nikkei is down ----> -2.13% with the dollar only up by +0.09%.
as of 12:45 am (EST).

 

[Birchtree]

Oldschool,

Right on the money - export competition. That's why we want the Chinese to revalue their currency to a free market float.

Also last year Japanese stocks had a 40% run and this year are up 7.5%. Strong economic growth is raising expectations that profits at Japan's big companies will continue rising. Early evidence suggests the earnings season will confirm solid performances. So far, upward revisions have out-stripped downward revisions for the first time in 16 years, according to analysts at Nikko Citigroup. Of course the rosy forecasts could be upset for a number of reasons.

Surging oil prices could trigger a global recession that would ensnare Japan. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has championed many of the reforms that have helped Japan's economy grow, is set to resign in September, raising concerns about who his successor will be and whether his policies will be continued. An abrupt change in Japan's economic policy could disrupt its growth prospects. Most important, the Bank of Japan, which is beginning to end its ultralow interest-rate policy, could suffocate growth if it raises rate too quickly. We've already come a very long way, and nothing lasts forever. There are plenty of risks out there. A bounce off of Nikkei 16,000 would be a normal correction and another golden opportunity. I'll ride this one too.

 

[Soldat]

CNN money not working for me. Master, might be where you were seeing that .09

Dollar is down 1.3% vs Yen, .4% vs GBP, and .3% vs. Euro. Today will be flat unless something rises or falls from here.