Playing the I fund

[Birchtree]

Sorry, but the I fund can still be a crap shoot if you don't have familiarity with the 1021 companies that compose it. Most are high steppers which leads me to believe the value will or has already shifted to the C fund for forward outperformance. There will still be gains in the I fund - but a lot of the action has already transpired - meaning the easy money may have been made. Don't misunderstand - I'm currently bullish on all three stock funds - only insanely BULLISH on the C fund. It will cost more and more from this point forward to play stakes high enough to make serious money. Good luck.

 

[Soldat]

"I bet we see 20 cents or more."

If that holds true then we would be setup for an FV takeaway, Correct?

It only equates to a "take-away" if, tomorrow, the dollar regains the ground it lost today.

The dollar lost that ground, thats what the FV will reflect.

 

[sugarandspice]

Well I missed out on this one BUT...here it is today......

I fund----+.26
S fund----+.33
C fund----+.25

 

[Wheels]

Try to remember, these FV adjustments will ALWAYS be corrected within a day or two (maybe three). So if you are in the I fund and you stay in the I fund you really shouldn't care too much about these adjustments. The only time you would care is if they adjust on the day that you jump in or on the day that you jump out. AND if you are doing so frequently then you are just as likely to benefit from one of these adjustments as get hurt them.

Dave
<><

 

[sugarandspice]

Why dont we use today as an example and what it closely? would you say it was adjusted today, given the gain?

 

[Gilligan]

Well I missed out on this one BUT...here it is today......

I fund----+.26
S fund----+.33
C fund----+.25

Sugar,
Did you get these off the thriftline? Because tsp.gov is showing the S-fund @ $17.93 or +35 cents

 

[pointman72]

From my foxhole absolutely yes!

It actually started yesterday, I fund finished at .46% and they paid .88%, then today it finished 2.05% and they paid 1.30%. By my calculations they still owe me roughly .35%.

Histrorically, they will pay it in a couple of days when they realize they don't need to off set a swing in the other direction but it still brothers me because I have to keep up with it.

By the way the S fund paid .35 a share today.

 

[sugarandspice]

It was Sugar's poor math skills that was the reason for the error. It is one of many shortcomings of hers. From this point on she will never post closing share price gains or losses. I'll see to it.

 

[sugarandspice]

No you wont!

 

[Gilligan]

From this point on she will never post closing share price gains or losses.

Don’t stop posting prices. I was surprised that the prices came out on time, usually on a FV day the TSP folks are a couple of hours late. I didn’t know if the Thriftline had a different figure or if the share price was hard to hear on the recording. I appreciate you, I mean y'all, posting the prices. Keep up the good job!

 

[Soldat]

I would assume that the Nikkei will rally tonight and into the morning. European markets will almost definitely rally off of the US markets. Also, due to FOMC minutes, the foreign investors will sell their dollars. I wouldnt be surprised at all if tomorrow posts a larger gain than today.

 

[Wheels]

It actually started yesterday, I fund finished at .46% and they paid .88%, then today it finished 2.05% and they paid 1.30%. By my calculations they still owe me roughly .35%.

Histrorically, they will pay it in a couple of days when they realize they don't need to off set a swing in the other direction but it still brothers me because I have to keep up with it.

Pointman, it sounds like you are using the EFA as your reference for the I fund. While the EFA will accurately reflect the I fund price over a long period of time, it is not a good indicator of the daily price of the I fund. The I fund is explained pretty well in this thread if you go back and read the whole thing.

Dave
<><

 

[pointman72]

Dave,

Read about 30 pages, now my head hurts. But I learned. Thanks for everyones time and understanding.

Sure wish I was the guy who calculates the FV, no matter when he decides to do something and no matter what he comes up with he is always right. Must drive his/her supervisor crazy. lol

 

[sugarandspice]

So the I fund will have a FV back down now? Because of yesterday?

 

[mlk_man]

As long as the dollar remains stable the rest of the day, I think the I fund should pay about .6% today because the EFA kept going up yesterday after the cutoff time.

JMHO

 

[vectorman]

All the overseas are finishing up, including the DAX and FTSE which was not in the mix for yesterday. As long as the U.S. markets finish in the green or don't sell off too bad, and like mlk man said " the dollar remains stable " ( the dollar is slowly weakening at this time ). The I fund should finish up tonight, even though the EFA may be showing red.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EFA
http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/world_charts.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=1d

 

[Master]

The FV that we got yesterday was in part because the EFA continue going up by +0.9%, after the MSCI posted the EAFE value.

Thus, some of the activity that you saw today in the foreign markets was included in that FV of 26 cents.

 

[Wheels]

The FV that we got yesterday was in part because the EFA continue going up by +0.9%, after the MSCI posted the EAFE value.

Thus, some of the activity that you saw today in the foreign markets was included in that FV of 26 cents.

Be careful, you are putting the cart before the horse. We got the FV yesterday because the dollar fell off significantly after MSCI determined the EAFE value for the day. Which is also why the EFA ran up in the afternoon. The EFA running was the result, not the cause. Same net effect though. The second half of your statement ends up being correct.

Interestingly, the dollar fell off again today after MSCI determined the EAFE value for the day. So this FV may take a few days to "correct". Again, the net effect will be that by the end of the week, the I fund will be well ahead of the S, way, way ahead of the C, and most importantly, too far ahead of me to catch up any time soon.

Dave
<><

 

[Wheels]

So the I fund will have a FV back down now? Because of yesterday?

Sort of correct. However, it's not an FV when they fix it. In this instance, like I said above, it may take a few days to "fix" it since the dollar fell again today after the close. Meaning that the I fund currently "owes" 14 cents but it probably won't pay it back tonight.

Dave
<><

 

[Master]

I don't disagree with you Wheels.

The reason of the EFA still was going up after 1-2 pm until it closed WAS the dollar value. In my view, that is the most useful feature of the EFA, because it serves as an integrator of all weighted currencies in the I fund against the dollar, particularly after MSCI closing. Daily value and even long term value of I is better assessed with MSCI EAFE. However, (not to beat a dead horse) there is no better assessment of the I fund than the I fund.