Playing the I fund

[Griffin]

I fund down .06 today. Considering the dollar, not to bad.

On the money with EAFE - no FV

 

[Wizard]

*** deleted - it posted twice ***

 

[Wizard]

Uncle Buck is broken:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=usd

 

[FundSurfer]

I fund is different.

.... seems to me the I fund isn't so different, in the end, from how any other funds work.

I guess it depends on your perspective. If your perspective is that of a long term hold then yes I agree the I-fund isn't much different than any other fund, although a little more volitile than the other TSP funds.

If your perspective is 11:30 am Eastern trying to decide on making a trade by deadline, well then this fund is very different. Our noon deadline makes for a worse handycap for this fund. No true intra-day indicator. The MSCI EAFE can be off quite a bit.

I definitely have a love hate with the I-fund. From a frequent trader perspective, I like the volitility. From a timing perspective it is a bear to figure out. There have been times I've jumped into the I fund expecting the fund to drop hard, only to have the drop occur the following day when I'm IN the fund. There have also been times I've jumped out on what should have been a huge up day, only to have the gains given the day AFTER I got out. Mostly I agree with Milk_man, I hate the I-fund.

 

[oldschool]

On the days you expected falls/increases, but they happened a day late b/c of FV action, were you making your decision based on the same indicator? If yes, you have a proxy for at least part of what they look at to decide whether to FV or not....

 

[FundSurfer]

I wish I could say yes...

It isn't always like that. Mostly I use MSCI EAFE and US Dollar Index which both give intra-day indications. The FV does not seem to follow a set pattern to me. You'd think that FV would be based upon late moves of the dollar and EAFE index but there must be something more.

From what I've been able to tell, the move of I-fund is primarily tied to overseas market closes with MSCI EAFE and Dollar having only slight weight for possibility of FV.

 

[Wizard]

Looks like Japan needs to raise rates.

They are having some inflation problems.

The core nationwide CPI, excluding food, rose 0.5% in January from a year earlier, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said in a preliminary report. The increase marks the third straight month prices have risen.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...3A1-434B-9EFF-30DBF4CC6861}&siteid=mktw&dist=

Note: You may need to register.

 

[Fivetears]

Counting your (our) I-Fund Blessings.

If your perspective is 11:30 am Eastern trying to decide on making a trade by deadline, well then this fund is very different. Our noon deadline makes for a worse handycap for this fund. No true intra-day indicator. The MSCI EAFE can be off quite a bit.

I manage a second job 401k through Hewitt Associates LLC, with 13 different investment fund options. Their I-Fund investment option requires a 2 Week Notice before you can bail.
At least we TSPer's can jump ship in usually 24hrs.
I've got a 6.92% YTD return in that I-Fund; 100% all in; 28.9% average annual return over the last 3 years. You've got to be patient with the International Funds. They are very volatile in both directions, and quite un-timeable; for the most part.

Here's 5 easy steps on how to survive in the I Fund.
1. Find yourself the largest pile of "I Manure" in your field.
2. Fluff it up real good into a heaping tall pile.
3. Park your backside dead in the center of it; wallet side down.
4. Crack open an ice cold beverage of your choosing.
5. Relax.

 

[mlk_man]

Mostly I agree with Milk_man, I hate the I-fund.

I now hate the F fund also..................

 

[roguewave]

It isn't always like that. Mostly I use MSCI EAFE and US Dollar Index which both give intra-day indications. The FV does not seem to follow a set pattern to me. You'd think that FV would be based upon late moves of the dollar and EAFE index but there must be something more.

From what I've been able to tell, the move of I-fund is primarily tied to overseas market closes with MSCI EAFE and Dollar having only slight weight for possibility of FV.

You're on to it. Keep at it.

 

[FundSurfer]

Expect the dollar to go higher...

Economists at Lehman today said the central bank will likely raise rates by a quarter point four more times by August or September to 5.5 percent to prevent an expanding economy from stoking inflation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aSN4GYsosu8I

I expect this will push the dollar higher today which as we all know will impact the I-fund negatively today or tommorrow or next week sometime....

 

[Master]

MSCI has the I fund going to +0.358%

 

[sugarandspice]

I fund up +.06 today.

 

[FundSurfer]

Looks like the I-fund will get whacked

Looks like the I-fund will get whacked pretty hard today. Dollar is still going up and foriegn markets are all red. I think it is a day early to dive into trying to buy on a down day, but if we see a huge turn around prior to noon I might move some into I-fund. I hate trying to anticipate I-fund too much.

The No Brainer time to buy I-fund is when foriegn markets are all red and the morning US open shows huge turn around and dollar begins to fall. The I-fund will probably end down that day so you buy cheap and will rebound the next day as the foriegn markets lag the US markets. That could happen today, I'll be watching but I don't expect it.

 

[Griffin]

Here's 5 easy steps on how to survive in the I Fund.
1. Find yourself the largest pile of "I Manure" in your field.
2. Fluff it up real good into a heaping tall pile.
3. Park your backside dead in the center of it; wallet side down.
4. Crack open an ice cold beverage of your choosing.
5. Relax.

I totally agree with you. The I-fund is good for long term buy and hold. The volatility and higher average rate of return makes it attractive to the short term timer, but by the time you deal with all the variables, you really can't beat the S-Fund with I-Fund. This is especially true, when you factor in the accessibility of information to the market drivers for the domestic stock market.

As much as I get frustrated with the I-fund, if I can't beat it within the next couple of months, I may have to join it for the long run (unless that 4 year curse rears it's ugly head).

 

[LA_Guy]

I-fund is taking a beating today. Ouchhhhh!!!!

 

[Fivetears]

The Curse.

I've got my telescope out searching for a sign too, Griffin. When the Yahoo I Fund market ticker switches over to the half point increments on a drop, I too become a bit frustrated. I do have my personal limit of loss, and will park the truck in the G & F if it reaches that point.
I've noticed some of people moving to the I over the last few days. I wonder if the current drop is just a worldwide "I-Timer bomb" (so to speak). I wonder if people world-wide are beginning to move money from the American Stock Markets and funds over to the International side of the house, and a little International profit taking is going on?

Nice Avatar. I have it on my radiator; a Griffin dual core.

 

[LA_Guy]

MSCI has posted the I-fund down 1.33% so our I-fund will be down 25 cents.

 

[SkyPilot]

Maybe more as the USD is also up sharply, thus prompting a possible FV adjustment. :blink:

 

[FundSurfer]

Looks bad for I-fund for tommorrow as well.

MSCI shows down 1.33% today. iShares EAFE continued to fall after noon and Dollar continued to rise. I expect tommorrow might be another down day. I'm thinking about putting some money into I-fund tommorrow. Time will tell.