Playing the I fund

[350zCommTech]

Early Estimate: down .702% or 16 cents,

minus yesterday's 34 gives a total of 18.

 

[GUCHI]

or anyone else

you mentioned cancelling a transaction , how is that done and do you have to still meet the deadline 12:00 est ?? i take it you mean your tsp account ??

 

[nnuut]

The Dollar is up, but may turn around, PROFIT TAKING!
Forex - Dollar benefits from profit-taking ahead of key manufacturing ISM data

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar reclaimed some lost ground ahead of key US datadue at 1500 GMT as investors took profits on the recent gains made by the yenand pound. The dollar remained solidly above the 119 mark against the yen while thepound eased to just under 1.96 usd ahead of the US data. The ISM mnaufacturing sector index is expected to rise to 50.3 in Decemberfrom 49.5 the previous month, while the November construction spending is seendropping by 0.5 pct from the previous month, having declined by 1.0 pct inOctober. According to Charles Dumas at Lombard Street Research, the bear patch forthe dollar is over. "The surpluses of the countries that have most actively shifted from thedollar, typically oil exporters, are falling fast, while those of the savingsglut countries locked into the dollar are growing," he said. The dollar stumbled momentarily, mainly against the [URL="http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex"]euro[/URL], after the ADP jobsforecast published in the US estimated a fall in non-farm payrolls for the firsttime since April 2003. However, the euro failed to make any large gains, despite very strongjobless data from Germany earlier in the morning. German unemployment fell by anadjusted 108,000 in November against expectations for only 50,000. Simon Derrick said the German data was probably eclipsed by a focus onprofit-taking ahead of this afternoon's indicators as well as minutes from theFederal Reserve's last policy meeting, due at 1900 GMT. "There's room for surprises from the minutes," he noted, as the Fed hasrecently continued to stress upside risks to inflation despite a slowdown in thewider economy. Elsewhere, the pound has remained steady against the euro but lost ground tothe dollar. Bids for the dollar pushed the pound from 1.970 down below 1.960,although it enjoyed a brief run back up towards 1.9630 after the weak ADPfigures. Should the dollar gain any more against the pound on the upcoming data,analysts at IFR Markets identified resistance levels at 1.9591, 1.9569, and1.9550.http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex-Dol...of-key-manufacturing-ISM-data_0018628738.html

 

[fedgolfer]

Early Estimate: down .702% or 16 cents,

minus yesterday's 34 gives a total of 18.

Euro markets are showing late resilience.

 

[sugarandspice]

Doesn't this fund look like a no-brainer for tomorrow?

 

[350zCommTech]

What is interesting is that Japan is closed until Thursday because of national holidays. All this positive action and they are closed. Should be some pent-up demand and maybe great action. NIKKEI is much bigger part of I fund.

I would like wait for Japan to contirbute to the I fund before jumping out but the action in the EZ this morning is not very cormforting. I have a feeling the USM might take profit tomorrow. The big question for tomorrow is the dollar. Does anybody have an idea on what it's going to do?

 

[nnuut]

OPPS! Dollar up +.62 OS markets flat!

 

[350zCommTech]

Down .613% or 14 cents, plus yesterdays 34 for a total gain of 20 cents.

 

[wv-girl]

Down .613% or 14 cents, plus yesterdays 34 for a total gain of 20 cents.

What would have to happen for a + OR - fv?

 

[mayday]

Dollar index is off the chart.

 

[sugarandspice]

Maybe setting up for an FV steal today with the dollar action.

 

[mayday]

Maybe setting up for an FV steal today with the dollar action.

My thinking exactly.

 

[350zCommTech]

What would have to happen for a + OR - fv?

Eventhough the dollar is up, I'm more concerned with the USM being up big at noon. A big selloff in the afternoon will mean a -FV for the I fund. The dollar appears to be leveling off and has a long way to go before it triggers a -FV.

 

[wv-girl]

Eventhough the dollar is up, I'm more concerned with the USM being up big at noon. A big selloff in the afternoon will mean a -FV for the I fund. The dollar appears to be leveling off and has a long way to go before it triggers a -FV.

Thanx 350-- I have much to learn and this mb has been a god send.

Happy 2007

 

[SkyPilot]

On what info did you base your prediction?

I fund "should" be up 22 cents to $ 22.44

MSCI will be down ~ 0.516% today.

 

[Griffin]

That sounds about right given yesterdays 1.5% increase in the EAFE another .2% gain in the OSMs today and the loss resulting from a .9% gain in the dollar index.

The I should cough up the top gain for the day. It will be interesting to see if the Eurozone follows suit with Japan (assuming Japan follows suit and has a solid green day tomorrow). Given today's rally is already running out of steam after not quite hitting last week's highs, tomorrow could be another sideways day for the OSMs.

So far this is not as encouraging as last years start. I wouldn't bank on seasonality much beyond tomorrow. January can take you behind the woodshed, if your not careful.

I fund "should" be up 22 cents to $ 22.44

MSCI will be down ~ 0.516% today.

 

[weatherweenie]

January can take you behind the woodshed, if your not careful.

Think we're heading to the shed now.

 

[350zCommTech]

Eventhough the dollar is up, I'm more concerned with the USM being up big at noon. A big selloff in the afternoon will mean a -FV for the I fund. The dollar appears to be leveling off and has a long way to go before it triggers a -FV.

I'm sorry folks. I take full blame.


If you got out, you might get screwed big today. Currently, it looks like a hugh -FV.

 

[Griffin]

It always seems that way when the market is scraping it's belly across the bottom of the channel. That's usually the moment just before the big pay off, of course, that's also (less frequently) the moment before the big plunge starts too.

If the SPX drops below 1410 then it's time to panic....one last check on the market before I hit the submit button.....oops....it's time to panic!

Think we're heading to the shed now.

 

[sugarandspice]

Looking like getting in the I today maybe good for stealing a little tomorrow. If the slide continues it will be a big -FV and if things can at least hold steady tomorrow overseas they will pay us off tomorrow. The good thing is that if there is a loss at least it won't be as big if they correct it. The morning will tell and this is where the excellent 350z analysis really comes in to play.



Guessing and gambling my way to nothingness. Who's in?