Playing the I fund

[nnuut]

Dang ShowME you like that Red Wine too! My Prozac, mmmmm

 

[Show-me]

German in me! What can I say?

 

[nnuut]

Forex - US dollar slips in Sydney morning, range trading to hold into weekend

SYDNEY (XFN-ASIA) - The US [URL="http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex"]dollar[/URL] was slightly lower against the yen andeuro in morning trade here, with trading expected to remain rangebound goinginto the weekend, dealers said. They said little impact in currency markets is expected from today's Bank ofJapan meeting where rates are likely to remain on hold, while retail sales and aconsumer confidence survey due for release in the US tonight are also unlikelyto break the current ranges. At 9:43 am here (2343 GMT), the dollar was at 119.34 yen, down from 119.37in late New York trade while the euro was at 1.2561 usd, up from 1.2559. Dealers said sentiment in the US dollar is likely to hold following theovernight release of the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book survey, whichindicated the US economy continued to grow in September, with only two Fed districts reporting weaker growth. The survey, which summarises the Fed's current economic conditions in its 12districts, showed labor markets remained tight, but with a widespread cooling ofhousing markets. NAB Capital senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos said his firm does notexpect the FOMC to act on its current tightening bias despite the strength inthe Beige Book and the Sept 20 FOMC minutes showing that some inflation risks remain. "Indeed, we see the current softening in economic activity and the housingsector as eventually leading to an easing of policy, most likely in the secondhalf of 2007," he said. Meanwhile, US trade deficit data released overnight showed the deficitwidening unexpectedly to a record 69.9 bln usd in August from the previous record high of 68.0 bln in July. Dealers said the petroleum balance was largely responsible for the worsening deficit.http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex-US-...-trading-to-hold-into-weekend_0017215419.html

 

[weatherweenie]

Not the first time and it won't be the last time. The trick is to remember to wear your cup. In my case have a wine glass ready to take the edge off.

At least I got a coupon for a free Chipotle burrito in the mail today.

 

[ayla]

Hard to believe that we will have another good day with the I fund. I bet for sure today, there will be a FV that takes away.

Australia ^AORD +0.57%.
Japan ^N225 +167.73 +1.02%

 

[weatherweenie]

Hard to believe that we will have another good day with the I fund. I bet for sure today, there will be a FV that takes away.

Australia ^AORD +0.57%.
Japan ^N225 +167.73 +1.02%

And Europe is mixed.

 

[Show-me]

I get the impression the I fund tide is changing. After a huge up day in the USM the OSM are not that impressive. Eurozone is losing ground and the USD is crawling back up. YUK! May have to go to the G for the weekend. NK may fire off another firecracker to rattle the world. Last time they tried to get everyones attention they fired multiple rockets.

 

[ATCJeff]

Hard to believe that we will have another good day with the I fund. I bet for sure today, there will be a FV that takes away.

Australia ^AORD +0.57%.
Japan ^N225 +167.73 +1.02%

Not quite sure I would use the term "take away." More like even out. Remember yesterday's closing price was inflated.

 

[ayla]

Yes, yesterday's FV was 10 cents (according to my calculations) which probably will be subtracted today.

 

[Pill]

I am wondering if I should protect my gains or ride it out? Sitting 100% I. Any advice?? My brain is telling me to protect my gains as I have been waiting for this. But my nerves and greed want to keep on riding. But that has cause to me to stay 100% when I have been wanting to diversify.

 

[Gilligan]

Ball park estimate: Local Currency is +0.5%, the dollar is higher at +0.3% so the USD price is about +0.2% for a gain of 4 cents to about $20.56, however if Barclays corrects the FV from yesterday we would be looking around $20.45

 

[Oldcoin]

Ball park estimate: Local Currency is +0.5%, the dollar is higher at +0.3% so the USD price is about +0.2% for a gain of 4 cents to about $20.56, however if Barclays corrects the FV from yesterday we would be looking around $20.45

Gilligan, wish I could say more, your post pre trade time are a hugh help. Thank you.

 

[weatherweenie]

EFA is butting up against 69, for what its worth.

 

[nnuut]

Not worth much! I don't even look at the EFA chart at the bottom of the page because it really doesn't mean much. At best a guess at what it will be later. Overseas markets are all closed by 11:30 EDT, soooooooooo?

 

[weatherweenie]

Not worth much! I don't even look at the EFA chart at the bottom of the page because it really doesn't mean much. At best a guess at what it will be later. Overseas markets are all closed by 11:30 EDT, soooooooooo?

What if anything do you look at, chartwise, to determine when to get in/out of the I fund?

 

[nnuut]

WW I'm not an analyst,
but I look at the Dollar index a weak dollar helps the I fund.
Look at the trend which includes resistance levels (charts).
Daily I check the overseas funds are doing, a good one is CNN Money. Of course the overseas markets close before we do.
If the US Markets have a really good day most of the time (yeah right) the overseas markets will follow our lead.
Oil/gas prices, world political matters.
There are others on the board that can add to and go much deeper than I can, so hey guys can you help out WW with this one?
Oh, I also do lots of GUESSING!!

 

[Oldcoin]

I've been using www.stockcharts.com and $iee.

 

[ayla]

What if anything do you look at, chartwise, to determine when to get in/out of the I fund?

I'm very new at this but getting smarter every day. I still have problems knowing when to sell but that said .. I have downloaded the historical share prices from tsp.gov and saved into an Excel spreadsheet. Seems like that is the only way to get the REAL DEAL. Then I have formulas and alerts that I'm developing as I'm learning. Making charts of the data is very very easy in Excel though can be tedious if you want to keep them updated every day. I'm currently trying to figure out ways to avoid losing big with any drops that might be coming such as occurred on May 9th.

Before I got my own spread sheet data, I looked at the fund graphs on tspmoney.com. I found the 20 and 50 day moving average graph for the I fund very helpful. If the I fund starts touching or crossing below the 50 day average, I think I've decided (with the help of some others on this board) that that is a sign to get out.

Also, trying to find the best formula for "overbought" conditions. As far as I can tell, the ROC (rate of change) variiable indicates "overbought". I use a period of 12 days and use the formula below (in Excel). The I-Fund has had a very high ROC but with today, it is leveling out a tiny bit which means that helps to avoid the big FALL and instead is doing some trading within a range. I think that is good - I think an indication of "consolidation".

Formula I programmed into my Excel work sheet - Rate Of Change Indicator:
((Today’s Close - Close n periods ago)/ Close n periods ago) x 100
from: http://www.streetauthority.com/terms/macdmomentumdivergence.asp

I agree with nnut about the dollar index but I don't yet have a handle on exactly how to deal with it quantitatively except to know that if it is down, then the I Fund will probably be up (or at least not tanking.) BUT the Dollar index can turn on a dime from what I can tell.

Lots to learn. You've asked a good question. Hope others with more experience will share some of their knowledge.

 

[weatherweenie]

EAFE +0.13% on Friday the 13th.

 

[Birchtree]

ayla,

And the more you learn the more complicated it all gets.

Dennis