Play for the bounce... if only we had unlimited trades again

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Gold down again this morning along with other commodities. I wonder if traders think no QE will come tomorrow so they are getting out of those inflation plays. I hear most analysts now saying they don't expect any big news. That is good news I think. Low expectations, so maybe no sell the news?
 
Thank you Warren Buffet. We could make a run at that 1200 level today. Also, interesting that I heard this morning that Obama wants to reduce all mortgage interest by 1% on government backed mortgages and that perhaps Bernanke may hint at this tomorrow.
 
clester said:
Thank you Warren Buffet. We could make a run at that 1200 level today. Also, interesting that I heard this morning that Obama wants to reduce all mortgage interest by 1% on government backed mortgages and that perhaps Bernanke may hint at this tomorrow.
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Looks like Buffett's $5 billion investment in B of A is only helping you if you are in the C fund.
 
Better news would be that the government get out of the mortgage business all together...but thats just me.
 
KevinD said:
Better news would be that the government get out of the mortgage business all together...but thats just me.
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Yeah, but that won't happen. I was looking at refi rates and if I could get my rate reduced to 4% that would be great. In any case, it would be a big boost to the economy by slowing down foreclosures and giving folks more money to spend. I hope they do it.
 
Initial reaction to no QE3 not good. Let's see how it plays out. I plan on holding until 1125 area. I keep hearing the problem is still Europe. Perhaps some shorts will cover before the weekend.
 
clester said:
Initial reaction to no QE3 not good. Let's see how it plays out. I plan on holding until 1125 area. I keep hearing the problem is still Europe. Perhaps some shorts will cover before the weekend.
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I am watching the R2K and it is making a big bull run... maybe the bulls aren't on vacation?
 
clester said:
It's interesting. Almost always , the initial response is reversed. I think this is a very positive sign for stocks.
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It's a long day ahead but if by chance we could get to 1180 for a higher high, we would be off to the races. With the volatility it's possible. 1125 is the line in the sand for me. We need help from Europe.
 
clester said:
It's a long day ahead but if by chance we could get to 1180 for a higher high, we would be off to the races. With the volatility it's possible. 1125 is the line in the sand for me. We need help from Europe.
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I think we may have till after labor day to rally as long as EU holds on. When congress comes back it could be trouble. Maybe Bernanke will provide a kick in the pants to congress with this speech but I doubt it.
 
clester said:
It's a long day ahead but if by chance we could get to 1180 for a higher high, we would be off to the races. With the volatility it's possible. 1125 is the line in the sand for me. We need help from Europe.
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We could make it today! It may be as high as 1185 or so to be a clear higher high. Got my fingers crossed.
 
clester said:
We could make it today! It may be as high as 1185 or so to be a clear higher high. Got my fingers crossed.
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Ok, maybe we make it today. I think the relief rally will continue through Labor day. Markets usually go against trend around holidays. Expectations for economic numbers are low, so any positive signs could help rally. Sentiment is very negative, so that's a positive. We need the EU to be quiet.

The problems will start again when congress gets back and in the news again. Probably a good time to sell.

IMO.
 
clester said:
Ok, maybe we make it today. I think the relief rally will continue through Labor day. Markets usually go against trend around holidays. Expectations for economic numbers are low, so any positive signs could help rally. Sentiment is very negative, so that's a positive. We need the EU to be quiet.

The problems will start again when congress gets back and in the news again. Probably a good time to sell.

IMO.
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If we were able to get above 1206 or so and make a new near term high, I think there would be huge short covering. Light volume this week should help the bulls unless EU rears it's ugly head.

I would be surprised if that happens today, but maybe soon. There will be some resistance around 1200.
 
clester said:
Ok, maybe we make it today. I think the relief rally will continue through Labor day. Markets usually go against trend around holidays. Expectations for economic numbers are low, so any positive signs could help rally. Sentiment is very negative, so that's a positive. We need the EU to be quiet.

The problems will start again when congress gets back and in the news again. Probably a good time to sell.

IMO.
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I agree that the holiday is making this a tough call. We could see whatever happens this week, reverse next week.

As far as sentiment goes, we were actually very close to a sell signal in last week's sentiment survey. We had one into the middle of the trading day last Thursday. If it wasn't for the big negative reversal on Thursday (when we took the survey) we would have got it (sell signal). I think if we took the survey on Wed or Fri of last week instead, we would have got it. Today's strength would probably also put the bull / bear ratio well over the 1 to 1 sell signal.

The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio "sentiment" is still very bearish, however.
 
tsptalk said:
I agree that the holiday is making this a tough call. We could see whatever happens this week, reverse next week.

As far as sentiment goes, we were actually very close to a sell signal in last week's sentiment survey. We had one into the middle of the trading day last Thursday. If it wasn't for the big negative reversal on Thursday (when we took the survey) we would have got it (sell signal). I think if we took the survey on Wed or Fri of last week instead, we would have got it. Today's strength would probably also put the bull / bear ratio well over the 1 to 1 sell signal.

The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio "sentiment" is still very bearish, however.
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So are the talking heads. Seems most folks here are nit in stocks either.
 
I hate how this two trade thing has to play inot my thinking. I jumped in and we have had a nice bounce. I am looking for an exit. I would like to ride to Thursday or Friday but if I bail to G by Wednesday (31st of August) I don't waste a September trade. What a horrible way to have to work this system we are stuck with.
 
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