Play for the bounce... if only we had unlimited trades again

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I agree fundsurfer. You used to make great trades when we had unlimited. (I'm sure you still do). We are at the Point where we fail in this rally or its off to the races. I would like to hold till next week.
 
We made a new near term high and that has started a new trend. It's a long way down to make a new lower low. So, I expect a little pull back and then make a new near term high above 1210. I will stay with the trade until we make a new lower low, I think, but I may lock in gains and get back in after pull back when we get new trades on Sept 1.

I am thinking maybe getting out cob Wednesday like fundsurfer suggested and get back in on pullback in Sept. Especially if we rally more. Just hate to use up trades :(
 
FundSurfer said:
I hate how this two trade thing has to play inot my thinking. I jumped in and we have had a nice bounce. I am looking for an exit. I would like to ride to Thursday or Friday but if I bail to G by Wednesday (31st of August) I don't waste a September trade. What a horrible way to have to work this system we are stuck with.
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Have you decided?
 
I think the bears are getting frustrated. They have tried to sell this morning but are losing their advantage. We could have more short covering or just buying. We have lots of room up to the 50 dma. That's my next target.

I would like to hold at least through Friday. I heard we may get a negative print on jobs Friday though ( low expectations are good) and I could save a trade if I exit tomorrow. When Obama speaks it seems the market goes down but maybe next week will be different.
 
Anybody surprised consumer confidence is low? It is at the level of last crash of April/may 09. We bounced up from there.

Will we bounce off this sell off today? I think so. We'll see.
 
clester said:
Have you decided?
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I'll probably decide on Wednesday morning. I have to admit that I'm leaning toward the sidelines. There are too many things that could rattle the markets right now and cause a selloff - Euro troubles, congressmen spouting battle plans, Syria, oil, another hurricane, etc...

Like the saying goes...stay away till October.
 
clester said:
.... You used to make great trades when we had unlimited. (I'm sure you still do)....
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I quit posting my moves for several reasons: 1. I travel and do not always have the luxury of being able to post my moves to the tracker. I missed posting a bunch of moves to the tracker which causes problems trying to get the tracker lined back up with my actual position. I keep my own spreadsheet anyway. 2. I pay for a service that I follow mostly, so out of respect for that service I don't post. I say mostly cause I still try to take advantage of certain setups I see. 3. This board is watched by the the TSP Board. I'm still ticked. I don't think they pay much attention anymore but they have in the past mined this message board for information that then got used against us. That isn't this messageboard's fault, but it does stick in the back of my mind.

Besides, you've done really well too. Just cause I don't post to the tracker does not mean that I don't pay attention. After all, I kept the tracker by hand for a long time. I'm very thankful that it eventually got it's own online widget. It was tough to keep track of the 50 or 60 that I tracked. Now the number is over 200 and growing.
 
FundSurfer said:
After all, I kept the tracker by hand for a long time. I'm very thankful that it eventually got it's own online widget. It was tough to keep track of the 50 or 60 that I tracked. Now the number is over 200 and growing.
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Awe, the good old days...............;) There use to be some really good "debates" here didn't there?
 
FundSurfer said:
I quit posting my moves for several reasons: 1. I travel and do not always have the luxury of being able to post my moves to the tracker. I missed posting a bunch of moves to the tracker which causes problems trying to get the tracker lined back up with my actual position. I keep my own spreadsheet anyway. 2. I pay for a service that I follow mostly, so out of respect for that service I don't post. I say mostly cause I still try to take advantage of certain setups I see. 3. This board is watched by the the TSP Board. I'm still ticked. I don't think they pay much attention anymore but they have in the past mined this message board for information that then got used against us. That isn't this messageboard's fault, but it does stick in the back of my mind.

Besides, you've done really well too. Just cause I don't post to the tracker does not mean that I don't pay attention. After all, I kept the tracker by hand for a long time. I'm very thankful that it eventually got it's own online widget. It was tough to keep track of the 50 or 60 that I tracked. Now the number is over 200 and growing.
Click to expand...
You don't need a service. You are one of the best at playing the tsp. You should start your own.
 
FundSurfer said:
I'll probably decide on Wednesday morning. I have to admit that I'm leaning toward the sidelines. There are too many things that could rattle the markets right now and cause a selloff - Euro troubles, congressmen spouting battle plans, Syria, oil, another hurricane, etc...

Like the saying goes...stay away till October.
Click to expand...

FundSurfer nice to see your moving through looking for some easy snacks. :D I also agree that the FRTIB has really handcuffed us and made it more difficult to maintain our TSP in these turbulent times.
 
The melt up seems to be frustrating those bears. EU up today will help us. If news over there stays quiet we may keep the trend up. I am eyeing that 50 dma.
 
August is over. Now, what happens next month? I am still looking at the 50 dma. It may be a good place to sell. It's really not too far away. I think we will get there.
 
clester said:
August is over. Now, what happens next month? I am still looking at the 50 dma. It may be a good place to sell. It's really not too far away. I think we will get there.
Click to expand...
So far, it looks like bears continue to be frustrated and market keeps climbing. The news isn't terrible but bad enough to warrant some action by the Fed. It seems volatility is much lower. That is good.

I am still thinking of getting out at the 50 dma and wait to see if we get above it before getting back in.
 
Sam Stovall thinks we'll have a counter-trend rally for September - I'm staying long and strong.
 
Well the trade limitations for tsp got me again. I almost got out on the 31st but decided to go into September with moneynin stocks so I would have maximum trades during the month. As it turns out it has cost me in the short term. Thanks a lot tsp board!

Anyway, some follow through to the down side this morning before the jobs report. EU has reared its ugly head again. I think 1180 maybe 1160 at the lowest would be my exit point. 1130 is the break of the uptrend for sure but that is a long way down.

Would a bad jobs report really be good for stocks? We will see soon.
 
We knew a sell off was coming today. Traders don't want to be holding over this long weekend. Too much risk of stuff happening somewhere in the world. Add to that the fact that politicians like to announce bad news on Friday afternoon before a long holiday weekend. They hope it gets buried in the news and it usually does. I don't know what will get announced this afternoon, only that it will. Add to this that the President speaks before congress next week. People are unsure how the market will react. Most likely badly because the D's and the R's can agree on anything right now. No matter what the Prez says, count on the R's to poo poo his ideas. That is not good for the market.

Now, if I was you, I'd be hard pressed to decide whether to ride out the next few days or jump ship. It would be an easy decision with more trades - Jump out. You actually have not lost a trade. If you jump out, you can still jump back in and still have the option to go to G fund. I'm out. I can jump it and jump out to G and poof my trades are gone too. So even though I got out on Wednesday, we are in the same boat - kinda. I'm soo glad that I did not think about that on Wednesday cause I would have waited till Thursday to jump out.
 
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