PessOptimist's Account Talk

[PessOptimist]

This is getting kind of concerning. S fund keeps on going up. I am meeting my goals but am getting edgy. I only hope that when it finally tanks it does so in a smallish linear fashion. I hate to think of two 5% down days in a row. I am nervous but greedy. Don’t want to lose that whopping 20% I have in equities.

PO

 

[PessOptimist]

Well I almost got my projection. Over 5% in two days. First day suddenly 4.5%. It's what I get for thinking "I am almost up to where I was the day I retired".

Bright side is that my withdrawal was probably taken out today at lower values. I won't know for sure until tomorrow or maybe Tuesday thanks to the near real time updates at TSP.gov.

Not selling yet. Famous last words?

PO

 

[PessOptimist]

Made an IFT to 100% G effective COB today. It was a nice run in the S fund but I have reached my goal for the year, depending on what happens the rest of the day in the market.

I think I will sit on the pad until after the election.

PO

 

[PessOptimist]

Today would have been a good day to still be in S fund. Maybe. Since no IFT could be made today, we will see what tomorrow brings. Capt. Obvious.

aka PO

 

[flalaw97]

So do today's gains get added to tomorrow's gains/losses to arrive at the final TSP share price for tomorrow (no new TSP share prices will be posted today correct?)?

 

[nasa1974]

So do today's gains get added to tomorrow's gains/losses to arrive at the final TSP share price for tomorrow (no new TSP share prices will be posted today correct?)?

Correct

 

[PessOptimist]

Made an IFT to 100% G effective COB today. It was a nice run in the S fund but I have reached my goal for the year, depending on what happens the rest of the day in the market.

I think I will sit on the pad until after the election.

PO

Posted that October 9[SUP]th[/SUP]. Goes to show what I know. I told myself to not figure what that lost me at my 20% S fund allocation but I had to. What’s $20k to a retiree other than a new vehicle down payment or a cheap cruise? Now what for me? Everything seems way too high right now to get back in. I am at a positive total balance figuring in my withdrawals.

A record high ytd seems to be coming on the autotracker. I am rooting for sparky to reach 100% for the year. The question came up elsewhere about what the highest past return was and the info is available on the autotracker page back to 2010. Previous to that would require more searching.

2010	35.16%
2011	26.69%
2012	31.70%
2013	38.64%
2014	28.95%
2015	23.73%
2016	31.95%
2017	26.83%
2018	20.60%
2019	35.56%

Best of luck all of you.

PO

 

[flalaw97]

You know you are part pessimist (or just supersititious) when you use the word "seems" when the current high ytd is over 90% with three weeks left in the year and the next closest previous record high is 39% Thanks for putting this accomplishment in perspective - pretty amazing Sparky.

A record high ytd seems to be coming on the autotracker.

PO

 

[PessOptimist]

Whoohoo. Number 115 on the autotracker. If I had chosen a user name like ++11aardvark I’d be number 18. Wait, I‘ve said that before.

Best of luck to all in 2019.

PO

 

[nasa1974]

Whoohoo. Number 115 on the autotracker. If I had chosen a user name like ++11aardvark I’d be number 18. Wait, I‘ve said that before.

Best of luck to all in 2019.

PO

PO,

Not to burst your bubble but after adding all the "Hidden Members" you drop to 250. But you have bragging rights over me. I'm down in the bowls of the AutoTracker at 1106.
I hope I can do half as good in 2021 as I did in 2020.
Good Luck.

 

[PessOptimist]

Went 100% G fund in October to see what would happen during and after the election. I saw. As usual when to put my small amount back in to stocks becomes a problem. I wouldn’t mind increasing the TSP balance at all but the goal I set was to accept the balance I had when I retired and try to keep it the same after withdrawals. So much for that. Now it’s mid February. I am contemplating putting 10% back in to S fund and see what happens. I may need to hold my nose and shut my eyes and just let it ride.

Any comments please.

PO

 

[pmaloney]

I'm sure you know that you missed out on a lot of gains by not risking anything since October. I had a tough year last year and it was combined with a more important personal loss. After a big loss, I was intimidated and finally got in with the idea that you need to protect what you absolutely need for a couple of years and risk the rest to make gains for the future. Once you gain back, you can decide to invest more when the market is advancing and you can increase those gains even more and retreat quickly when you need to. :smile:

 

[rangerray]

Went 100% G fund in October to see what would happen during and after the election. I saw. As usual when to put my small amount back in to stocks becomes a problem. I wouldn’t mind increasing the TSP balance at all but the goal I set was to accept the balance I had when I retired and try to keep it the same after withdrawals. So much for that. Now it’s mid February. I am contemplating putting 10% back in to S fund and see what happens. I may need to hold my nose and shut my eyes and just let it ride.

Any comments please.

PO

I have a hard time addressing someone else's fear. So, I'll just say that the market has obviously been trending upward since about mid-March of 2020, so much so that one guy on the tracker made a 103% return last year. However, during that time there was plenty of times that I was fearful of being fully invested with 100% of my account. Because of that fear, I ended up with a 43% return. So, I suppose the points I want to make are:

1 - fear is not a bad thing
2 - you have to be in it to win it
3 - look for the trends
4 - if you find yourself risking it all, be content with a smaller monthly gain (it can really add up over a years time)
5 - fear can keep you out of the market completely, as you know, or it can cause you to abandon a trend early, like me (but I still made some good gains)

 

[PessOptimist]

Whoohoo! An up day. Now all I need is about 1.56% to get back to where I was when I bought that paltry 10% S fund on 25 Feb. As stated you gotta be in to win. I wasn’t in the last quarter or 20 and two months of 21. Yuck.

No real harm yet but this money is part of the retirement three legged stool.

PO

 

[nasa1974]

Good Luck PO

 

[PessOptimist]

This is getting...tedious? My tiny 10% in S should likely have been in C? Do I sit out this downside or bail? The TSP is an important part of my three legged FERS retirement stool. No irreparable damage yet. Should I Stay or Should I Go? Old Clash song.

I know no entity other than myself can make this decision.

PO

 

[eastj]

Hello PessOptimist - I hope I'm not intruding for posting, but I am having the same debate with myself. Have about 40 in C and didn't see this collapse coming until too late (and it happened so quickly!). Decided to stay put until I see some relief which comes today hopefully, but I have a feeling it won't stay up for long.

Not a make or break situation, and years to go on the fund, but terribly anxious all the same...

This is getting...tedious? My tiny 10% in S should likely have been in C? Do I sit out this downside or bail? The TSP is an important part of my three legged FERS retirement stool. No irreparable damage yet. Should I Stay or Should I Go? Old Clash song.

I know no entity other than myself can make this decision.

PO

 

[ALRetiree]

If you have years to go eastj just take a deep breath and relax. :smile:

 

[eastj]

Thank you ALRetiree! That is so kind of you to say, and it's something I needed to hear! I've only recently started paying attention to the market so I have excess newbie jitters...

All the best to you,

J.

If you have years to go eastj just take a deep breath and relax. :smile:

 

[flalaw97]

The TSP is an important part of my three legged FERS retirement stool.

If the music isn't about to stop (i.e. you have some time before you retire and start withdrawals) then you don't have to worry (yet) if the stool will hold up when you sit down