PessOptimist's Account Talk

[PessOptimist]

I have been watching the stock funds rise this year and wondered if moving 100% G on 2/15 was a good idea after all. On that day I had about 17% in C, the rest G. Thinking about the alpo retirement predictions for those who move to G fund. Especially now G is paying 2.25%.
I was discussing financial things with SO yesterday and mentioned this. She asked how much gain I missed. So I figured it out and if I had left it alone we would be about $7k richer today. SO aka SWMBO said leave it in the G fund.

PO

 

[PessOptimist]

View attachment G Fund facts.pdfI have been invested 100% G Fund since February. I have missed a lot of gains in all equity funds. Doing some research on the G fund I find it is a “special” US Treasury security fund based on return rates of the weighted average yield of all outstanding Treasury notes and bonds with 4 or more years to maturity. The fact sheet says there are no transaction costs but administrative costs of $.40 per $1k of balance.

The fact sheet also states G fund is “without any risk of loss of principal”. I will attach the TSP pdf file explaining all this.

My question that is not explained is if the fed keeps dropping interest rates which has a bearing on the 137 or so US Treasury securities weighted average which G fund is based on, how low can it go? Could it go to 0%? Will my G fund monies then be earning less than a savings account? Will savings, money market or IRS accounts start paying 0%?

Replies from all encouraged.

PO

 

[Cactus]

I wouldn't expect the rates to go below where they were after the last economic downturn. The lowest year since then was 2012 when the G Fund earned 1.47%. The monthly return for September of that year was 0.10%. While that isn't great, it's a lot better than what your savings accounts were paying. It's also not 0% even though it still feels like it.

 

[nasa1974]

Back in the late 80's and early 90's the "G" fund was averaging above 8%.

 

[nnuut]

Back in the late 80's and early 90's the "G" fund was averaging above 8%.

Yep, and I LIKED it!!

 

[PessOptimist]

Interesting market. I should have left 10-20% in equities since I retired at the end of last year. That would give me between 1 and 2% more gain this year. That would offset what I have had to withdraw. Prudence told me to leave it in G since you don’t need to withdraw anything this year. Prudence isn’t always right and can be a PITA sometimes.

The SO needed additional back surgery and the place that seemed best/she chose was in California. We had to get her there and back and incidentally pay for lodging costs for her when she wasn’t in the hospital and me the whole time. Lodging is not cheap in the San Francisco bay area. I did manage a few nights in a Navy Lodge but mostly in extended stay motels. Not to mention $4 per gallon gas.

To cover these expenses, I began withdrawing a sum each month from my TSP. I may adjust that later but for now all the bills aren’t in. Now I am wondering how gutsy I should be about putting money back in equities.

The surgery went very well and she is recovering nicely. (easy for me to say) We have to go back for a follow up visit in December which will be more costs this calendar year.

The temptation exists to move a large amount of the TSP balance in to equities for a short while and then back to safety. Any idiot ought to be able to earn 1% more this year, right?

I am not just any idiot but a complete idiot about investing it seems. Picking the time for this move would probably not work out.

Good luck everyone in your investment decisions.

PO

 

[pmaloney]

Sorry to hear about the surgery and expenses but glad it's working out.
It's the unknown expenses in the future that keep me investing.
I usually go to safety when it seems to make sense and I am usually right for a day but then miss a few days of big rally. :smile:

 

[PessOptimist]

Back from the followup surgeon visit for SO and glad to be home.

I sat in G the whole year and do regret it somewhat as I am withdrawing from the TSP. Life is what it is.

SO followup was basically a non event. Could have had xrays taken here and sent them. What the heck. Few thousand dollars of expenses not covered by med insurance. SO likes to fly to CA and arrange meetings with old friends in SF at peak rush hour. I have no problem driving in city traffic and actually found when ending up in the wrong lane to go where SO wants, people actually let me in the lane. Maybe CA citizens are not all like...never mind, politics type thought.

SO did insist we drive by and take pictures of the SF homes of the Hon. Ms Feinstein and the Hon. Ms. Pelosi. I have no idea why and figured there would be some security around. None I saw. Did SO have the right addresses? Whatever it was an adventure getting through traffic and up and down the hills to find them.

Back at home now. Filled the flight time watching the GPS. Most airlines allow you to use them.




Funny to me thing. When SO told about driving by Hon. Ms. Feinstein's one of her friends asked if she gave the house the finger. Is all not perfect in utopian peoples republic?

PO

 

[PessOptimist]

OMG. OMG. FOMO. FOMO. Sat out 2019, now wondering where the bottom lies and when to put a paltry 10% in to stocks. Maybe 5% C and 5% S. If I had stayed where I was earlier last year I would have been ahead of retirement withdrawals. Awaiting wife's friends advice abut how I am mismanaging the account. Their hindsight is always correct. It's hard out there for a gimp (investment gimp) who is supposed to be ensuring the future for a sig other.

Thoughts or comments? FO&D is a good comment.

PO

 

[Mcqlives]

OMG. OMG. FOMO. FOMO. Sat out 2019, now wondering where the bottom lies and when to put a paltry 10% in to stocks. Maybe 5% C and 5% S. If I had stayed where I was earlier last year I would have been ahead of retirement withdrawals. Awaiting wife's friends advice abut how I am mismanaging the account. Their hindsight is always correct. It's hard out there for a gimp (investment gimp) who is supposed to be ensuring the future for a sig other.

Thoughts or comments? FO&D is a good comment.

PO

Only a little FOMO here. Virus vectors still are not known...or maybe worse, if known are not being publicized. I'm not refereing to the genome but to the route of replication (which cells) this virus uses to advance. Also, more importantly, how easily does this virus "mutate" to become more resistant to our antibodies? With those thoughts in my mind, and China markets back open on Monday, I have a much greater fear of being in that out.

As for FO&D comments....Not sure what that is. I only know it as the old army Foxtrot-Oscar and Delta. If that's the case, you should know I had a good chuckle and you deserve none of those types of comments!

 

[Whipsaw]

So is this just another variant of the flu? Haven't seen anything indicating severity if caught, just that generic influenza mortality rates are higher. leave it to the Chinese to eat raw bat soup...

 

[PessOptimist]

Retired and withdrawing from TSP. Recent G fund rate has me rethinking things. I've actually been rethinking things for months but haven't acted. I need about 5% to offset the withdrawals. Yeah if I had done something earlier this year I would have got that. Maybe. I'm not a 100% C, S or I fund type. Would have been like 10% each. Just want the TSP to last in to my 90s instead of 80s. Gonna have to do something soon. Or not. Maybe 10% C and S. Just not confident.

 

[rangerray]

I've got a friend at work that is a "buy-and-holder." He is on the Autotracker as gaharris. He stays with 55 S, 35 C, and 10 I and does OK most years. Maybe just lower your percentages and use his ratio if you don't want to fret with your account too much? Otherwise, don't let a day go by that you don't follow the forum here, keep abreast of all news sources, and look for those opportunities where you can be relatively sure that you'll make some money if you're invested in S or C. I'd think 5% or 6% would be doable practically every year just by looking for some opportunities for quick one or two day in-and-outs of the S or C Funds, but the most reward would be had from going 100% on days like that.

I'm not retired yet, with 1 year, 4 months and 7 days until I'm eligible, but I agree things will look really different when I finally sever my ties to this government job.

 

[PessOptimist]

Thanks rangerray. That’s pretty much what I did while employed. A few exceptions where I bailed but the only negative years I find are 2002, 2014 and 2015. Some years are quite dismal. I have been sorta watching it over the years. In February last year I went 100% G and sat there since. Retired you know and gotta be prudent. Now feeling FOMO and would like to extend TSP exhaustion a few years. Now looks like it will go to 0 at 88 yo but you never know.

Yes, retiring and severing the ties with your agency is definitely a game changer. OPM has taken care of me so far but they are not quick to do things. Once your agency pays your final amount they will say” who are you” if you contact them.

I almost went 10% C and S today but didn’t. Prices looked to be going down at cut off time but then rose. Wait for another down day or just do it?

Thank you to all posters here for your comments. Both about investing and Memorial Day.

My father, 7 uncles and two aunts wore uniforms during WWII. One uncle did a Korea thing. One cousin did two tours in Viet Nam. All came back home. I spent 20+ years in the Air Force and didn’t do anything if you don’t count cold war stuff. Very fortunate and thankful on this coming Memorial or Decoration Day. Remember those who didn’t return and honor them on Monday.

PO

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi PO, I been thinking about changing my strategy just a but... trying to stay in more, BUT not true buy and hold. I have been studying several EMA cross overs. In those charts I post, I show 3, 5, 13, 16 EMAs plus mid-point ( dotted line ) on Bollinger Band is a 20 SMA. I am thinking to drop the 16 EMA and use only 13 EMA with 20 SMA as crossover points to enter and exit market.... but still keep eye on default MACD crossovers and Stochastics as momentum indicators. I hope to post new chart links tomorrow if you would like to look at them. I really like that 13 EMA and 20 SMA crossover. I'm thinking to start investing at about 50% to make coin but still feel secure.
...of course would require daily monitoring but after looking at flash crash patterns and last couple years, I think this could work fairly well....
Best wishes to you! :smile:

 

[PessOptimist]

Hi PO, I been thinking about changing my strategy just a but... trying to stay in more, BUT not true buy and hold. I have been studying several EMA cross overs. In those charts I post, I show 3, 5, 13, 16 EMAs plus mid-point ( dotted line ) on Bollinger Band is a 20 SMA. I am thinking to drop the 16 EMA and use only 13 EMA with 20 SMA as crossover points to enter and exit market.... but still keep eye on default MACD crossovers.

Not sure I was a true buy and holder over the years. Mostly. I read TSPTalk posts most every day. Scared of decreasing the TSP balance at all. When I turn 70 in two years planning on stopping the TSP withdrawal as will start receiving full SS. I hope. Their web site doesn’t give me any options though I checked and rechecked the rule I could file a restricted spouse benefit based on my birth date. I hope that was true.

One of these days I have to put some of the TSP in to equities. Since I am so daring, probably 20%. I would love to be one of those that went 100% S or C for two days and earned many%. Just can’t do it.

PO

 

[bmneveu]

PO, if you are looking for the ~5% range, what do you think about the F fund?

 

[nasa1974]

Happy Birthday PO.

 

[ravensfan]

Happy Birthday pesso...:birthday:

 

[nnuut]

OK!!!!! HBD PO, have a Great one.