PessOptimist's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Pessopp:

As to the "happened before" scenario; I can only tell you this - when I bailed out of the dot-com bust; it was not until after a cratering, and then moonshot deadcat bounce in a few days of something on the order of 15%, from 1,100 to 1,249 in the S&P; it was another 7 years before 1,249 was seen again, which got as far as 1,400, before collapsing into the 600's. So Yeah, seen it before, and what is that?

A whole lot of fluctuation and not necessarily any long term gain.

This market could rebound - or - it could really eat some lunch. It's been worse than this....but that's not necessarily a reason to buy and hold.

 

[Cactus]

I hear ya, Amoeba. You spend a decade+ trying to get back to where you were. Maybe even the rest of your career and you never get there, but what are you going to do?

This brings Ginsberg's Theorem to mind:

1. You can't win.
2. You can't break even.
3. You can't even stop playing the game.

You just got to dig through your laundry and put on your cleanest dirty shirt.

 

[Birchtree]

The advantage of TSP is that you get the benefit of dollar cost averaging - which meands you get more shares at lower prices. It's the number of shares that will provide the rewards during retirement.

 

[PessOptimist]

Pessopp:

As to the "happened before" scenario; I can only tell you this - when I bailed out of the dot-com bust; it was not until after a cratering, and then moonshot deadcat bounce in a few days of something on the order of 15%, from 1,100 to 1,249 in the S&P; it was another 7 years before 1,249 was seen again, which got as far as 1,400, before collapsing into the 600's. So Yeah, seen it before, and what is that?

A whole lot of fluctuation and not necessarily any long term gain.

This market could rebound - or - it could really eat some lunch. It's been worse than this....but that's not necessarily a reason to buy and hold.

My point was not to panic yet and that many newer investors or newly aware investors need to learn it does not always go up like 2013.

I felt pain in 02 and 08 with negative return on investment. I would have to do some research to find my actual IFTs during that time but I suspect that between 00 and 02 it was equal G/F/C. Some time in 08 I moved to G for a while. When I started my TSP account in 98 everyone I knew was living in the state of U4EAh and told me to put it all in C. Being the pragmatic chickensh*t I am I went an even split G/F/C. They bragged daily about how much they were making and then around the end of 2000 no one talked about it anymore. Late year 02 someone told me I needed to move all to G. I do not know what I did or if I even knew how back then. I probably forgot about it as no one was talking about it any longer.

As a one eyed drunken monkey I managed 15%+ last year. Anyone not afraid to be in equities could have done at least as well.

So readers. I am not saying do nothing, just evaluate your tolerance for potential losses and make your best choice. Just be aware that the market does not always go up.

PO

 

[Birchtree]

Whew, can you believe that consumer sentiment climbs to the highest level in over seven year - now that makes a statement if you can find the hidden agendas.

 

[alevin]

Wouldn't it have been great to go to G COB on the 18th and back to status quo COB on the 25th? Of course like many I would still be in G wondering when to put some back to stocks. Maybe some day I will find that magic solution for a quick % of profit preservation. Assuming the market goes back up. Which I am in the long term.

News from around the country is astounding and somewhat depressing. Not convinced that some things called criminal acts are not terrorism of some kind no matter what motivated the person allegedly performing the act. Is getting transferred to Hawaii really that bad?

On to more uplifting if mundane personal victories. I went to Chase Bank today to transfer an old IRA to my Credit Union. The person who looked up the account acted astounded that I was never contacted about other investment opportunities. Then she said they would not be able to transfer (roll over) the account to my credit union. So she cut me a cashier’s check and listed it as a distribution over 59 1/2. Whatever. I was pretty sure and since verified that if I put it in to another IRA within 60 days there is no penalty. I have since re-verified that. While the person at Chase was out "cutting" the check they sent a minion from investments in to try to get me to use one of their financial instruments. I declined. I drove to the Credit Union and deposited it in my IRA account. I am sure this will generate a form 1099 for the IRS but it's OK. CU said up to 10 business days for cashier’s check to clear. Whatever. I am so sick of banks. Supposedly the money will soon be immediately available to transfer elsewhere. It is earning a crappy 0.2% but better than the 0.0009% Chase was giving me for the last 12 years. My bad I admit.

I searched out this thread
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/investment-portfolios/10967-how-get-started-outside-tsp.html and read other threads in the Investment Portfolios forum.

Lots of good info, some old. Suggestions included Scott Trade, Vanguard, USAA, Morningstar (an ETF?), Option House, T Rowe Price. One suggestion I liked was starting out with ETFs that are familiar like SPY, AGG, EFA. I also like the idea of dividend paying stocks and reinvesting the dividends in shares. But baby steps first.
One question is if I get an oh sh*t moment and want to move it to safety, what would be my options?
I visited ETF Talk for the first time and though not real active it seems familiar.

I guess what I am looking to open somewhere is a self-directed brokerage account?

PO

You mean a self-directed IRA account, PO? depends. If you want to diversify outside of stocks and bonds into land, rentals etc, there are options outside of brokerages per se-if you google self-directed IRA topic.

I don't have enough in outside accounts to justify doing that at this point, so I keep mine in a couple old direct-investment mutual fund family IRAs as well as roth and taxable accounts split between Scottrade and OptionsExpress. no, I haven't played with options yet. likely a long time before I will, if ever. the old direct investment mf family iras, haven't put anything new into them in long time, I just shift around between funds in each fund family periodically. One of them has 3 different money market accounts I can dive into if I feel the need. of course money market broke the buck awhile back-briefly. so I keep portion of funds at all times in shortterm bond fund as cash alternative.

 

[PessOptimist]

Third Quarter TSP statements are indeed mailed as stated elsewhere. Instead of being filed mine is still sitting out which means the co-owner is thinking about circling the balance and putting a sticky note on it telling me who to give it to. Maybe not because the balance did increase. 8.56% was the PIP listed. If only she knew exactly what happened after August. Someone she has corresponded with has guaranteed 14%+ every year. Not sure what fees might be involved. Not saying I shouldn’t be doing better but am under instructions to never take any risk with co-owners 50%. That 50% gets adjusted to include a portion of anything I manage to increase my 50% by.

Enough about that, we all have our own investment concerns.

You mean a self-directed IRA account, PO? depends. If you want to diversify outside of stocks and bonds into land, rentals etc, there are options outside of brokerages per se-if you google self-directed IRA topic.

I don't have enough in outside accounts to justify doing that at this point, so I keep mine in a couple old direct-investment mutual fund family IRAs as well as roth and taxable accounts split between Scottrade and OptionsExpress. no, I haven't played with options yet. likely a long time before I will, if ever. the old direct investment mf family iras, haven't put anything new into them in long time, I just shift around between funds in each fund family periodically. One of them has 3 different money market accounts I can dive into if I feel the need. of course money market broke the buck awhile back-briefly. so I keep portion of funds at all times in shortterm bond fund as cash alternative.

That is part of the problem 11, (may I abbreviate your name?) I do not really know what I want to do or what to call it. I think self-directed IRA is what I mean. Something with funds (EFAs?) that are kind of like TSP funds which I kind of understand. Based on the rules and tax implications I am not sure ROTH is the way to go at 62yo. I am happy now that I managed to move $14k from an old money market paying .002% to an account paying 2.4%. I can do better I know but suppose I should look at all the taxes I will save having earned about $3.60 a year on this account.
OK, I am being sarcastic. With all the other life things going on I doubt I would pay attention to new accounts. Maybe I should just find a 3%+ CD for it and be done with it for five years.
Thanks for the reply.

 

[alevin]

11? methinks something got lost in translation. is that base2 code?

 

[Cactus]

I think PO is pronouncing "alevin" as "eleven." Thus the reference to abbreviating your name. Some of us here like play-on-words and don't realize that if we get too cryptic the meaning may not get across.

 

[jpcavin]

Nevermind

 

[alevin]

I think PO is pronouncing "alevin" as "eleven." Thus the reference to abbreviating your name. Some of us here like play-on-words and don't realize that if we get too cryptic the meaning may not get across.

Got it, I love plays on words, but can be very visual as well, hence reading the abbreviation as 1-1, this time around, instead of focusing on the out-loud pronunciation of the number. good job, PO. welcome to abbreviate anytime, keeps me on my toes.

 

[PessOptimist]

ark update: ahh, it's that time of year when i like to look back on what all i am thankful for. i'm thankful for all the interesting and diverse things my tsptalk investment friends bring to the table, god bless you all, every one. a toast, clink.

Prosit, cheers, and many others celebrating countries I have visited. Interesting and diverse it is, I do love the social family aspect of the MB but it is above all about investing.

pessoptimist/squirrel, 6, 8.99%, m, cherry cheesecake (must be tempting to take some off the table)

Cherry cheesecake? That may be illegal.
Yes, very tempting. All the old clichés come to mind. It’s a marathon not a sprint. Yearly ror doesn’t matter lifetime does. Ad nauseum. If it is a marathon I believe I made it through the wall and now am just putting one foot in front of the other to make the finish. Doing just that could mean taking it all out of the market and having faith no one steals the G fund in the next twenty years. Status quo is more likely though there is the possibility of a correction, adjustment, dip, crash or many other bad words used here. The master plan is to make a total withdrawal of monthly payments at some point between 66 and 70 1/2 yo. I hate that it is called total but that is my understanding. I also believe I can change that monthly amount once a year. So total is actually partial but not really as partial is one time and total is not. FRTIB made it simple and wants you to buy an annuity from their favorite sponsor.

crazy stuff this week:
squirrel is killing it, better than the 8% any commercial investment advisor the so could find, and i bet she still don't appreciate it, probably thinks he just got lucky, which if she ain't careful and shut her yap sometimes he just might.

I have been lucky. I would like to think that my buy and hold strategy is because I read this MB and don’t see long term doom and gloom for S&P500. That index makes me nervous enough and W4500 drives me nuts with the volatility. I call it “frozen by anxiety”.
Lucky to me these days is waking up in the morning, convincing myself to get out of bed and not call in “sick”.
I am somewhat unfair about SOs concerns and ego may come in to play. 50% of it is hers.
I have been told I may be less than truthful about yearly gains. I do have some proof based on TSP balance less personal contributions. Yes, agency contributions may have saved my a$$ during some years. In particular questioning of gains is last year’s 15%. Include ‘02s -.55% and ‘08s -35% but the advisors have no data on their own performance for that ancient history.
When pressed I made a statement “only an ******* who didn’t have the balls to be in stocks couldn’t have made money last year”. No response about that being passed on but evidence of TSP statements being looked at. Perhaps the wannabe advisors did less well?
To those who did not make money in 2013, apologies for any perceived dissing but it is what it is.
Perhaps I have been sharing too much here?

happy holidays.

What burro said.
PO

 

[burrocrat]

cherry cheesecake and cherry chapstick are similar but different. although both are legal, you may want to be careful taking either off the table. or on the table for that matter.

 

[maui21ice]

My point was not to panic yet and that many newer investors or newly aware investors need to learn it does not always go up like 2013.

That's the mindset I need to keep as well with only having been investing for about a year and a half so far, and still close to 29 years left to go. I'm glad I'm learning the mistakes and the ropes of this all while I'm young and a lower account balance than most in order to avoid major losses that will impact me through my career.

 

[PessOptimist]

Yikes! I logged in earlier this morning and looked at the charts at the bottom of the page as usual and thought “cool”. Then I looked again right after 1300EST and thought “OMG, we’re doomed”. Then I looked at the range of the chart. Someone figured out it was .25%. Someone else pushed a button somewhere to make that so? Goes to show you have to look at the big picture sometimes. I am a little nervous about letting it ride and may take some off the table in early January. If that’s not too late.

My main reason for posting is to say “Merry Christmas” to all. I hope it is still OK to say that here without an asterisk as I expressed that sentiment to my manager when leaving work yesterday and was reminded not to say that phrase and say happy holidays instead. It never stops.

Just in case Merry Christmas offends some reader, please acknowledge an early winter non religious event or not as you wish.

PO

 

[alevin]

Merrrrry Christmas PO! and the same to everyone else here.

 

[PessOptimist]

How about that close? Did some big player push the sell button too late to make it negative? Three more trading days, how will the year turn out?

I am sharing a spread sheet I created several years ago and have been cluttering up since. It has a graph and comes in handy when questions come up about how you did in what time frame. It takes some data mining but all the info is available on TSP statements that you can get on line back to about 2004. Before that you will have to look at the paper copies you saved.

PO

 

[PessOptimist]

Nice start to 2015! Ah well, it’s a marathon not a sprint.

I have been thinking about starting a retirement thread but it is almost three years out so I am not sure. I have done some retirement planning. I have chosen a date and plan to not take leave the last year so I can have money while OPM finalizes things. Plus 1 to 1.5 pay checks in 2018 if I retire the last day of 2017.

I have been crunching some numbers for the SO who believes she needs to hire a consultant to advise me. Previously I looked at gross pay v annuitant pay plus social security. Today I decided to look in to actual money coming in to the house now v possible future money coming in to the house. It seems to come within 12k per year.

I am basing that on the FERS annuity being taxed at 9% and SS being taxed at 4.5%. FEHB and SBP for the FERS annuity are factored in. At least 50% of my social security will be subject to federal income tax based on other projected income. SS is based on the annual statement. FERS annuity is based on the estimate I got from my HR peeps.

The current take home is based on what I get which accounts for max TSP contribution, FERS retirement, SS, Medicare and a few others that should stop when I retire. Tax rate right now is about 16%.

Is this possible? Am I a victim of magic math and forgetting something? I will sleep on it and revisit it later.

In the meantime please feel free to comment.

PO

 

[pamkk]

When you have time and all your current and future expenses at hand, check out the Fidelity Retirement Calculator. It is very detailed and also has Monte Carlo projections to take into consideration a multitude of variables.. I am retired but my wife is not and I continue to update it as she gets nearer her date.

 

[Birchtree]

Begin to buy yourself an equity portfolio that pays increasing dividends and build that income stream. Money is going to flow to shareholders.