PessOptimist's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Re: Pessoptimist's Account Talk

I got out (80G 10C 10S) to avoid the whole budget/debt ceiling thing. See how smart I am? Now looking for that dip to go back to 40G 40C 20S or maybe 40G 60 C.

Coments and advice solicited.

PO

Wait for market to move and zig zag a bit sides ways and drop before you buy in ... A couple weeks probably..look for slow stochastic to hit 15...gotta find the short term bottom! I think it's definitely going up like BT said. Find a good entry! Good luck to ou. I'm in same boat..looking for entry.

 

[burrocrat]

pssst. hey po, want to buy some silver?

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/site-news-announcements/19798-tsp-talk-silver-coins-rounds.html#post444058

 

[PessOptimist]

Thought I would see if this thread was still here. No, burro, no silver just now.

What's up with all the likes lately? I'm not sure I like being liked. Well, maybe a little.

I hope I haven't pissed off anyone too much lately. Especially about rectification.

About that investing stuff. I just don't have time to try to play. I read everything here but usually after it is too late to react. If what I read was right. One thing I do believe is that I need to get at least 20% more in equities some time soon. Sitting 58.03G/41.97C real world. I don't adjust the autotracker unless I actually do a TSP IFT. Is Monday good for a move? Should I wait for the "real bottom"? Should I put that 20% in C or S or maybe even the dreaded I? Whatever I do you can bet it will be relatively long term. Comments invited. Yes, it is not investment advice, just opinion. Opinions invited then.

Up .75% so far this year. On track for a whopping 3% for 2014. Unless we get that 10% drop. But hopefully it will continue to increase overall in the next few years.

regards

PO

 

[PessOptimist]

Moved to 40G/60C.

Concerns:

S&P500 gap from 14 mar at 1841
S&p500 gap from 27mar 1849
Gaps usually get filled sooner or later?

Other considerations:
Mondays are usually good buy days
Putin called Obama so futures are up
Dollar may go up and Ukraine situation so I fund is not good
Last day of march might be down but it isn't the last trading day some years so might not be according to TSP Talk blog and JTHs nifty charts.
10% correction may be coming this year or next or in 15 or tomorrow. The bummer will be if it comes when I need to withdraw the money.
New moon, bad trade?

PO

 

[PessOptimist]

I started this last night then something else came up and I didn't post it. Yeah I realize that these are specific amounts so you can figure out my TSP balance but I think I posted it somewhere here a while back. Besides I am still using WinXP and SSL is a sieve so whoever want's to knows all anyway.

Well Geez Louise, am I a market timer or what? I move more in to C at $24.31 per "share" on the last day of march because the first day of the month is always up. It was too. $24.48. Saves those IFTs too though I never use them. Today C "shares" sit at $23.60. PO, remember it's a marathon, not a sprint. It's not a loss until you turn it in to cash.

To do a BT style gain/loss statement this week in the TSP was-2600, +1000, +2700, -5000, -2200 for a grand total of -$6100 for the week. Last week was a little better, +2500, +1700, -300, -3100 for a grand total of +$1600.

The end of that marathon is getting closer at 3.28 years.

These market swings hurt, don't they? After all the euphoria at the end of last year it's kind of a good lesson for those who don't remember 11, 10, 08, 02, 99, 98. I may have missed some years. I believe that "higher highs into uncharted territory " are probably coming. The question is when and if I will need to take a distribution during a down swing.

I have been doing an informal survey for a while and find that many canned products such as chile, hash, ravioli, meataroni, spaghetti, spam clones etc. are actually cheaper than most pet food. Everything is going to be OK.

PO

 

[Birchtree]

Now is a great time to hold steady with those dollar cost averaging purchases. It's always the number of shares purchased that leads to better gains. My tugboat hasn't made any money at all this year - but the year hasn't ended yet. I'm still enjoying the warmth of the glory days of 2013.

 

[PessOptimist]

Now is a great time to hold steady with those dollar cost averaging purchases. It's always the number of shares purchased that leads to better gains. My tugboat hasn't made any money at all this year - but the year hasn't ended yet. I'm still enjoying the warmth of the glory days of 2013.

Thanks for the soothing words. The problem with the DCA purchases in TSP is no control over when the contribution allocation happens. Mine are on Monday, supposedly an historically up day. I really need to start an outside investment account of some kind. Maybe I'll call it my mud puddle account. The problem is overcoming my inertia and getting started. Decisions are where to open the account and what to invest in initially.

PO

 

[OBXTrader]

It would take discipline, but one could send all contributions into the G Fund, then DCA on a day one's choosing.

Thanks for the soothing words. The problem with the DCA purchases in TSP is no control over when the contribution allocation happens. Mine are on Monday, supposedly an historically up day. I really need to start an outside investment account of some kind. Maybe I'll call it my mud puddle account. The problem is overcoming my inertia and getting started. Decisions are where to open the account and what to invest in initially.

PO

 

[PessOptimist]

Re: Pessoptimist's Account Talk

It would take discipline, but one could send all contributions into the G Fund, then DCA on a day one's choosing.

Discipline? Awwwwkk! Thank you Sir! May I have another?

Thanks for the reply. You are absolutely correct. I seriously do know what you mean. It has been posted here as a strategy for the contribution allocation before but as you say, takes discipline to watch it and do it. Plus, of course it uses up an IFT.

My problem with that strategy is I very seldom get to watch the market during the day or make an IFT by noon EST. That means a guess in the evening if I even remember. I would likely end up with a bunch more money in G than I want. My timing skills are not great. My discipline pertaining to investments is also not great. I do like to whine. I will continue to buy C fund every other Monday until I don't. Sometimes on Friday if Monday is a holiday.

Best of luck in your TSP.

PO

 

[Cactus]

I have been doing an informal survey for a while and find that many canned products such as chile, hash, ravioli, meataroni, spaghetti, spam clones etc. are actually cheaper than most pet food. Everything is going to be OK.

PO

Ah, you must be considering canned pet food or those yuppie brands. As for me, I find the 50 lb bag of store brand dry dog food the way to go. With my performance it's that or dumpster diving McDonalds after hours.

Seriously, though, what ever you do, make sure your spouse is on board with your decisions. This can lead to some extreme stress on relationships. Needless to say my wife is less than thrilled with my retirement balance to date.

 

[PessOptimist]

Re: Pessoptimist's Account Talk

Cactus, those dry brands can hurt the teeth and since there is no dental care that can be an issue.

Spouse is on board, aware and watching. Made it known long ago 50% of it was hers. Reason I never go much beyond 50% in. Now the money I earned on my 50% is 50% hers and I am not doing it right.

She routinely has roped friends, sig others of friends and possibly strangers in to "advising me". The few I have corresponded with to get the advice have stated "no one can make anything under your fund's rules" and to send the money to either them or a good friend of theirs. So far I have offered to give her her 50% on the day I withdraw it, let her pay the taxes and penalties and invest it as she chooses. So far no response other than I am being an a**hole.

You stated that "my wife is less than thrilled with my retirement balance to date. " and if she is like mine also less than thrilled with my job, salary, the amount of OT I work, my siblings and her step children who refuse to follow her orders. They are 38 and 41 BTW and take no money from me other than what I choose to send occasionally. She still feels they should do what she says.

Enough lovely spouse bashing. We both can flee which is likely what instincts tell us. However the other person involved would rather spend everything accumulated thus far on attorney's fees just to "get even". My dad, a product of the 30's and WWII Vet always told me "you dug your grave. now lie in it". That is where I am at.

Happy days Cactus!

Elsewhere I have been described as Moderate Risk / Moderate Reward Group (The cats are napping, Eating ok and sleeping ok)

• squirrel/pessoptimist - 8% Reward, 10% Risk, Expect -2% to 18% Return

So when do I see the 18%? So far I haven't met the 2%. Never mind, sig other will just claim it as hers due to her existing as legal spouse.

Happy new week fellow feds.

PO

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Pessoptimist's Account Talk

Cactus, those dry brands can hurt the teeth and since there is no dental care that can be an issue.

Spouse is on board, aware and watching. Made it known long ago 50% of it was hers. Reason I never go much beyond 50% in. Now the money I earned on my 50% is 50% hers and I am not doing it right.

She routinely has roped friends, sig others of friends and possibly strangers in to "advising me". The few I have corresponded with to get the advice have stated "no one can make anything under your fund's rules" and to send the money to either them or a good friend of theirs. So far I have offered to give her her 50% on the day I withdraw it, let her pay the taxes and penalties and invest it as she chooses. So far no response other than I am being an a**hole.

You stated that "my wife is less than thrilled with my retirement balance to date. " and if she is like mine also less than thrilled with my job, salary, the amount of OT I work, my siblings and her step children who refuse to follow her orders. They are 38 and 41 BTW and take no money from me other than what I choose to send occasionally. She still feels they should do what she says.

Enough lovely spouse bashing. We both can flee which is likely what instincts tell us. However the other person involved would rather spend everything accumulated thus far on attorney's fees just to "get even". My dad, a product of the 30's and WWII Vet always told me "you dug your grave. now lie in it". That is where I am at.

Happy days Cactus!

Elsewhere I have been described as Moderate Risk / Moderate Reward Group (The cats are napping, Eating ok and sleeping ok)

• squirrel/pessoptimist - 8% Reward, 10% Risk, Expect -2% to 18% Return

So when do I see the 18%? So far I haven't met the 2%. Never mind, sig other will just claim it as hers due to her existing as legal spouse.

Happy new week fellow feds.

PO

Man, I'm glad I'm not in your shoes. I imagine it's a lot like trying to communicate with a liberal.

 

[PessOptimist]

Re: Pessoptimist's Account Talk

Man, I'm glad I'm not in your shoes. I imagine it's a lot like trying to communicate with a liberal.

Pretty much. Decisions are made based on what she believes is "the only right way". Criticisms backed by facts are met with silence, deflection or statements "everybody does it that way".

Claims she is not a liberal and loved RR. Went to high school in Chicago, moved to Los Angeles where she lived and worked with musicians then moved to San Francisco for several years. Claims she never met a liberal in any of those places, just people who do things the correct way.

Happy investing BT.

 

[burrocrat]

oh, po, so sorry to hear.

i would offer you some relationship advice, but every relationship i've been in ended up failing, often misrafreakinbly. i know, i know, save the self-help 'well then straighten up donkey' comments folks.

life is give and take, everybody has their limits and gets to decide where they're at. at least you have friends. i hope things normalize in that situation.

have you tried buying her some scented soaps or anything like that? sometimes that helps, especially if it's your turn to apologize.

 

[burrocrat]

ok, i just couldn't resist any longer (i did try, believe me i tried). relationship advice according to burro:

go on amazon.com and buy dvd copies of 'war of the roses' and 'bridges of madison county'. then play them alternately, all the time. on your tv, on your computer, on your xbox or anything that can play them. as soon as one ends, put the other one in. then see what she does, either it will be snuggle with you or start breaking stuff. that's how you can tell when it's time to hire a lawyer. fried green tomatoes is another one that can work in places of 'bridges', but still to this day i can't figure out wtf that movie is about.

also some advice on 'half': make her mow half the yard, clean half the pool, change half the oil, etc. but that also means you have to cook half the dinner, do half the dishes, fold half the laundry, etc. sometimes doing stuff together and sharing tasks can draw people closer.

that may or not be a good thing, though.

 

[Birchtree]

Better still, pay a young lady to call your house at 0100 hours and let the sig other answer. Tell the young woman to say she needs you and can she tell you to come over and take care of his mercy mission. Now that should get some needed attention.

 

[Cactus]

Sorry to hear about your predicament, PO. In my case I'm to blame, so I have to man up to that. The wife gave up a good job as an ATC to marry me, and now that her Controler friends are retiring at their mandatory retirement age she sees it wasn't the wisest choice financially. She still wants to keep me, though, so I must be doing something right.

Good point about the dry dogfood on the dental work. I hadn't thought about that. Something else to consider.

 

[PessOptimist]

Non of the suggestion will work. Thanks

Investment opportnities in the TSP. Wow. I haven't been keeping up. Who predicted Tuesday was the day to get out and increase your gains?
Once again my biweekly allocation bought a high. (Monday) Yes I know someone suggested a way fix that by putting the allocation in G and watching the market every day and making a clever move to help the DCA shares. This still requires using an IFT. Unfortunately my job does not allow me to sit in a chair all day, follow the market and post to TSPTalk when I want. Yeah I know, I've said that before.

It is what it is. All you TA people out there. I realize TA actually should be called HA (history analysis) along with statistal mediums of what may happen when. Some of you speak of it as if it predicts the future. The future some times does mimic the past. There was a gap up on Monday, smaller up and down on Tuesday and Wednesday, big gap down on Thursday. Also many smaller (relatively) gaps last week. I guess most of them were filled by a line. The question is do the big up and down gaps have to be filled by lines or do they negate each other?

Regards
PO

 

[burrocrat]

wtf?

is that a way to make free money?

could you say it in english, please.

Non of the suggestion will work. Thanks

Investment opportnities in the TSP. Wow. I haven't been keeping up. Who predicted Tuesday was the day to get out and increase your gains?
Once again my biweekly allocation bought a high. (Monday) Yes I know someone suggested a way fix that by putting the allocation in G and watching the market every day and making a clever move to help the DCA shares. This still requires using an IFT. Unfortunately my job does not allow me to sit in a chair all day, follow the market and post to TSPTalk when I want. Yeah I know, I've said that before.

It is what it is. All you TA people out there. I realize TA actually should be called HA (history analysis) along with statistal mediums of what may happen when. Some of you speak of it as if it predicts the future. The future some times does mimic the past. There was a gap up on Monday, smaller up and down on Tuesday and Wednesday, big gap down on Thursday. Also many smaller (relatively) gaps last week. I guess most of them were filled by a line. The question is do the big up and down gaps have to be filled by lines or do they negate each other?

Regards
PO

 

[PessOptimist]

How about that market? Been reading stuff here for about seven years. I can't figure out which of you geniuses to follow.

I do see that things are getting a bit testy in all the threads lately. Chill out people, none of you are right and figuring out the actual return in different ways may not be accurate enough for some of you but if all returns comparisons use the same formula then the outcome is the same? Whatever.

Which one of you can tell me exactly when to go to 100% G and exactly when to go back to 100%C and then back to 100%G etc. so I can be a knowledgeable swing trader? Forget S. Too volatile. Tell me that and I will subscribe to your service or system that is so great. I want at least 30% this year.

Threads that start with *. Interesting but no solutions as usual. And some of the subjects you are using as platforms to state your positions! Amazing a fellow US citizen would post some of that.

Happy investing. I am waiting for replies on when to make that C-G-C... move.