P&F Chart School

Sort by newest Sort by date
Quick note-

the fall this morning has not yet been enought to trip the P&F chart into a reversal signal and a down stroke- but it is getting pretty close. If the S&P falls below 1180, that would be the thing that flips it. We're still 10 points away from that- but be aware, as that could happen yet today.

Here is the P&F chart for today, Friday, April 26, 2010:


IF the S&P continues to fall, and it crosses the 1180 mark, then I look for the P&F chart to signal a new series of "O's" and the beginning of a dowward stroke.​

If that happens, then the bottom on this cycle would then be around 1070 to 1080 or so before reversing again. (That presumes we're in a real bull market again, rather than just a bounce up in a continuing bear market.)​

With the strength that we've had, however, I am still thinking we may not make it all the way back down to the 1070-1080 range. If we do cross 1100, I plan myself to buy back in at that area, and then take my chances that we'll bottom in that range and then go back up.​

Anyway- that's my 2 cents for today.​

Once again- it's not off enough yet today for the formal signal, but we're close, so I will be watching closely. Personally, I already bailed out in the last couple days, thinking it would tank soon. And yesterday's TSPTALK Sentiment Survey confirmed that for me- as it gave a SELL signal yesterday for the first time since January.​

Enjoy, folks.​

As they say- it can be a rollercoaster out there. Be careful.​

this is not investment advice. For that- please go talk to a professional. I am not one of those- nor do I play one on TV. In fact, I didn't even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night! :D​
 
Alert--

The P&F Chart has now officially flipped with the break downward, and "O"s appearing.


Resistance levels: 1140, then 1100 are are minor resistance. 1070 is major resistance level.

Remember this- resistence is futile.

This wave up was a huge one, and that also means the potentional for a long way down back into normal levels. The floor at first glance is 1070 on the S&P 500 to be considered still in the bull market cycle. So here comes the roller coast ride.

I'm out.

Good luck out there. Could be just a fake-out, but much more likely is the start of a healthy pullback here to the 1100-1070 level. We'll see.
 
James48843 said:
Alert--

The P&F Chart has now officially flipped with the break downward, and "O"s appearing.


Resistance levels: 1140, then 1100 are are minor resistance. 1070 is major resistance level.

Remember this- resistence is futile.

This wave up was a huge one, and that also means the potentional for a long way down back into normal levels. The floor at first glance is 1070 on the S&P 500 to be considered still in the bull market cycle. So here comes the roller coast ride.

I'm out.

Good luck out there. Could be just a fake-out, but much more likely is the start of a healthy pullback here to the 1100-1070 level. We'll see.
Click to expand...

Thanks James, this provides yet more confirmation that the technical damage we are seeing is in fact real and should be respected.
 
Today's wild ride- led to an interesting P&F chart today. Notice that the entire row of "O"s filled in, and then STOPPED- exactly at the point where it was supposed to.

How about them apples? ? ?

View attachment 9316

Now- the next question is "Is that it? Are we ready to go back higher again?"

My thoughts are no- we're not done. We reached WAaaayyy down for a minute, and then shot back up. But as the volume has only shown a fraction (see down near the bottom on the volume chart) we still have a lot more trading to do in the negative portion of this wave down.

I'm sitting on the sidelines- and I believe it will settle back down over the next few days towards the low end here, before deciding which way it wants to head.

I'm still seeing hard resistance at 1070 level. That proved a good area today- the low was
just below that at 1065 before the rubber-band kicked in and propelled it back up. But I think we'll drift lower back down around that range shortly.

That's just my guess. Still I will be looking for a nice place to jump back in at, around that 1070-1100 mark.

Wild ride, isn't it?

As always- that's only my guess at reading the tea leaves here. You do what your own heart and head tell you, not what I write. I'm just a guy- not a professional. Good luck out there. And be careful.






​
 
Alert- I am sorry I am late- but I just noticed it-

yesterday's action caused a "Double Bottom Breakdown" in the P&F chart, and a new, negative price objective . That's a sell in the P&F world.

Here is the chart-

You'll see the new "bearish price objective" is showing 940. We've bounced up a bit today due to yesterday's over sell-off, but this chart is saying to us, that we're going lower ahead.

My gut is saying this chart might not be correct in this instance- tonight I'll try and post why I think that. But for the moment, the official P&F chart is saying now is the time to expect lower ahead.

I'll be making the P&F chart account move today in the autotracker.

​
 
I missed it again this week- on the 15th - a triple top breakout to the upside. New bullish price objective back up to the 1270 range.

View attachment 9598

Personally, I'm not sure this time. The 50 day and the 200 day moving averages are about to intersect. Not sure where that leaves us for next week- BUT- technically, I have to follow what the P&F says- and make a move.


I will be moving the mock P&F account back into C today.
​
 
Note: High Pole warning today on the P&F Chart- it isn't formally reversing yet, but it is coming close. Will be watching carefully today to see if it sends a formal sell signal or not. we're close.
 
James,
Am I correct in saying that the descending trend I drew won't be confirmed unless the 1040 box gets an "O"? (for this column, anyway.) Thanks
062410a.gif
 
Correct. We're still technically within a trading range, and even though there was a "High Pole" warning yesterday, it still has not officially triggered the red line above you have drawn, nor has the price objective changed from a positive one to a negative one.

Technically, we' re still at a positive price objective of 1300.


We'll see what happens today.
 
Ok- the technicals slipped this morning. We're now officially swapped out to a bearish price objective (lower) of 940.

Now that it's made the flip, I'll be making an official change in the P&F chart allocation tonight. I am not sure if it was showing before noon today (it probably was, but I was on the road, and did not see it until just now). Anyway, that's the P&F story- shifting to "G" tonight. (before noon tommorrow, so it will be effective at the close tomorrow. )

 
Yep- you're right. I looked at it at Noon on Friday and it hadn't yet turned- but it must have later in the day. Here's the chart:

View attachment 9762

Showing positive again- so I'll go place the P&F chart trade. Don't know if it's for real, but the chart says higher, so we follow the chart. Thanks for the note.
​
 
S&P 500 P&F chart went negative this morning with the appearance of a new row of "O"s.


From http://stockcharts.com , here's the new chart this morning.

View attachment 10218


What that tells me-

Lower ahead. The possibility exists that we could go back down around 1080 without a lot of difficulty. A floor exists at 1050. I don't know if we're going to make it all the way back to that, but I am on the sidelines now (thanks to the TSP Sentiment Survey Signal last week) and I am looking forward to a nice buying opportunity lower than here. (I expect lower than 1170 for sure. we'll have to see how it pans out)

Good luck.
 
Note: I forgot to post last night- but the bottom line is this- the P&F chart shows that reverse, and now going higher once again. The breakdown to the 1170 level was all it could muster before resuming it's upward march. Long term, we're still showing a postive target on the S&P 500 of around 1590. That's NO BULL!

This is Birch kind of perma-bull signals.

Here's the chart:

 
JTH,
It seems that the breakout has been trumped by a lack of good news and/or the lack of agreement regarding the continuance of the tax benefits going forward.

There is much uncertainty and, although this is true, we will have a rally earlier or later, and the trend is still to the upside. I still keep 40% of dry powder, because it is too late to think that the end is here. Remember that the FED is looking at QE2. Good luck to all. Pardon my late response.
 
JTH said:
Doubletop breakout today, any thoughts?
Click to expand...

Sorry- I just saw this.

My take is that it's just a series of waves upward. We're still good. We may see some variability here due to uncertainty over the tax situation, but that's only a temporary thing, and the general mood seems higher ahead= still looking at the longer term 1590 number.

I'm in to win.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Holiday week follows 5-day win streak
Replies
1
Views
167
exnavyew
exnavyew
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Despite some choppy action, the bulls remain in control
Replies
0
Views
109
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Something big is brewing - good or bad?
Replies
5
Views
216
robo
robo
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Has the mid-month pullback begun?
Replies
1
Views
129
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Where is the October volatility?
Replies
0
Views
198
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top