P&F Chart School

Chart today is active- went to a high pole warning. That's the bad news- looks like today is soft.

the good news is we're still in a bullish trend, and there appears to be several layers of support neatby. 1020 to 1030 level should become a landing point, at least once or twice here. Then we'll have to see if that holds. If it does, were due to rebound higher shortly. If it does not, then it will take a careful re-evaluation of the situation.

Here's today's chart- showing the support level around 1020, and then another support at 1000. Plus the continued bullish price objective of 1295 is still showing. That bullish price objective won't change unless we get a real breakdown here.


Personally, I'm riding the broncho here. Hangon on and thinking we'll get a rebound shortly. I could be right, I could be wrong. You do what you think is best. I'm not an expert- I don't give advice. I don't even play a doctor on TV, and I haven't slept in a Holiday Inn Express anytime recently at all.​

As for me, I'm riding.​

Yeehaw.​

Good luck.​
 
First bang against support point of 1020 held. It went to 1019, then bounced off it a bit. I expect it to attack the 1020 mark several times today. the question is will that area hold.

if it doesn't, the next level of support, which is a slightly more robust support area, is right at 1000.

We'll see.

Good luck.
 
First bang against support point of 1020 held. It went to 1019, then bounced off it a bit. I expect it to attack the 1020 mark several times today. the question is will that area hold.

if it doesn't, the next level of support, which is a slightly more robust support area, is right at 1000.

We'll see.

Good luck.

Thanks James, P&F charts don't get enough credit in my book. :)
 
Interesting day. Not quite sure what to think yet.

First, it didn't fall as much as I thought it was going to last week. We still have one open "O" that I thought would fill in the chart today. That is labled here as point #1.

Now, that said, we had a nice strong up move all day, and finished strong. Putting us right in the center of the last up/down cycle. Not bad for one day. The next question centers on....what happens next. Here, at point #2, is the projected high on this cycle. I think it's about 1090 to 1100.

IF it reaches above the last high, then we are in good shape, and the bull continues. However, it the strength peters out before we get higher than the last cycle, I see it quickly falling back to at least fill in that last #1 marker gap. And that could be bad. Back down to 1000 in a heartbeat is possible.

Here's the chart for today:

View attachment 6907

My point #3? Well, that simply showing that the momentum today was upward. Not enough to get a new row of "X"s started, but if we continue tomorrow, which is very possible, then we'll get some new "X"s before the day is out tomorrow. At least I hope so, 'cause I'm in right now.

That's all, folks. Good luck.

And be careful out there.
 
OK- now HERE is where it gets REAL interesting.

We had a nice move up this morning. It's enough to have us pop those "X"s like I thought it would. Nice.

Now what is interesting is to see tomorrow if we break higher, or if everything peters out tomorrow and is flat. My gut it telling me we are about to break higher. And if we do, great, then the bull continues, and a new high over the next few days will be GREAT news for continuing the roll.

HOWEVER, we have the other possibility as well. That is that we may be about to break downward. The P&F chart is showing, right this very instant, the possibility of a pennant formation appearing. If it does, and we run out of steam before breaking higher, then we could have a Big drop shortly.

Tom has been talking about that gap he sees and needs to get filled in. I am not sure- I think we'll continue to run for a while. But if this DOES turn out to be a pennant formation right here, then I may bail out and hold in place for a while soon.

I will be watching carefully tomorrow.

Here's the chart. showing the possible Pennant formation:
View attachment 6919

If we move higher strongly tommorrow, and break that line above, I'm staying in. I would then see perhaps 70% chance or greater of continued upward movement.

Remember, this is not anything other than one guy's opinion.

Hint: My coworkers use my moves to do the exact opposite of what I do many times, and they seem to do just fine. :-)


Good luck, and be careful out there.

 
Nice formation here. Looks like we got a real nice rebound last week- and now are setting for at least two more "X"s to go on the upside in this cycle.

The chart is showing 1090 or so for the upside here, before we get another down stroke. I've labeled as "Point #1" the two "X" area that I think we'll fill in here shortly. Today COULD be that day, but we''ll just have to wait and see what happens. Anyway, it's looking good.

I've penciled in a green line to show the amazing solid upside direction over the last few months. This can't last forever- we'll have to have a pause, sooner or later, but for the moment, all systems continue to point to green, so we'll just have to wait and see how long this can keep up.

Today's chart:
View attachment 6960

Good luck. And be careful out there.
 
Wow.

Even I didn't think we'd get this kind of strength this quick.

Here's your two new "X"s predicted on Monday. That was quick. And it results in a new Triple Top Breakout. Heck of a bullish sign here.

I just don't know what to say- except it looks like higher some more. No show of softness today. I was kind of expecting it to run out of steam and have another nice down cycle here- but it didn't happen, and now we're looking at this triple top breakout.

Bullishness prevails.



Wow. That's about all I can say. On Monday I said I thought it would be 1090 before it turned down for a slight dip. We're there now- (1092), but no weakness in sight. Bullish price objective still showing as 1295, and today a triple top breakout. Now thinking 1110-1120 before the next break? We'll see. What strenth here. Just....Wow.​



Good luck- and be careful out there.​
 
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I'm looking at a down cycle here down to 1050 to 1040 range. Maybe over the next few days.

We'll see.

We didn't get the "O" row to form today, because the close was not below 1080. We landed at 1081. If it goes below 1080, then three "O"s will form, and we have a down leg in the cycle. the downside is about 1050 to 1040 or so.

I have marked as point #1 the bottom anticipated in the next down cycle. If everything remains the same, meaning no outside event changes things- then I think we could see this in the next couple of days. then, I think we go back into gain mode.

We'll see. Here is today's chart, and markup:

That's all for now. Personally, I'm sitting in "G" waiting for the 1050 or below level to buy back in. You do what you think is best for you- this is not advice or a recommendation. I am not a financial advisor, nor do I play one on TV, and I didn't stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. Consume data at your own risk.
You decide your own fate. Good luck.

and.... be careful out there.

:D
 
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Bingo. Our magic little "O"s have appeared. Below 1070 and falling.

I'm thinking the chart shows 1050 or lower before reversal. Not sure it will make it down that far, but I am seeing that a likely possibility.

Will it stay down this time, and close below 1070? We'll have to wait and see.​
 
Still on track. If you look carefully, you'll see the chart is showing a drop to the 1040 area that should be filled in shortly- maybe today. That would be consistent with the normal pattern flows here.

View attachment 7090

That's the S&P 500 chart. Looks pretty typical, within normal ranges. Normally, I would be preparing to jump back in on the lower end of the cycle today. But I am not quite so sure right now.

One thing that has me a little concerned right now is that several of the other indicies P&F charts are showing a stronger downturn ahead.

For example- on the broader market, the smaller stocks are getting trashed right now. Here's the Wilshire 5000 index chart- which is showing a "Double Bottom Breakdown", and a slide downward. This is what has me sitting up and taking notice that this might not just be a normal up and down cycle. Take a look:
View attachment 7091

Because of that, I'm going to be a bit more cautious here, and stay another day in "G" while I see what happens. I MAY jump back in soon, but then again, maybe not.

Good luck.




 
Another look at where we are in the S&P500 today. Actually, two looks:

First, is the P&F chart in "Normal view". That is to say, the normal scale of P&F that I have been tracking all year- 1 X box scale, and 3 for the number of boxes needed to show direction. That one is now showing we still have a little bit to go before the reversal, but not much. This one is showing 1040 to 1030 area as a pretty solid reversal and floor below us before the next cycle up.




That one was looking pretty normal. And in "normal times" I would consider moving today to try and get in on the low side of this cycle.​

However, I mentioned early this morning that I was concerned about some other chart indicators- namely the broader market (think "S" fund) was having a double bottom breakdown, and showing lower ahead.​

So I looked again at the P&F Chart for the S&P 500 just now, and then expanded it to show DOUBLE the normal senstivity- i.e. instead of one box being 10 points on the S&P, I set the clarity at double that- one box being five points. I did that just to see what it would show.​

And bingo.​

This view of it shows even the S&P 500 having a double bottom breakdown- and predicts a new bearish price objective of the equivilant of 1010 on the S&P 500.​

take a look at the 2 X sensitivty version of the S&P 500 chart:​

Will we get there? I don't know.​

What I do know is that I am going to hold off making a decision today, and wait for further clarity on direction.​

Just food for thought. I'm going to wait.​

You get to make your own decision- this could be a great opportunity, but then again, it could be heading much lower ahead. that's the hard part about all of this. It's never easy to know what to do.​

Good luck.​
 
Ok- update for November 3rd close.

the P&F Chart has filled in exactly as forecasted- we went down below 1040, the "O"s all got filled in, and now it appears that we've settled a bit here. Here is today's chart, from Stockcharts.com:

View attachment 7143

Remember, the little "B" showing represents the point on the first trading day of November (yesterday). Now that it's filled in nicely, I expect, according to this chart today, that we are poised for a nice uptick shortly. The next cycle up looks to me, today, to be able to reach upward to around 1110 to 1120 or so. I drew in a green arrow to show that we've filled in everything on the downside that needed filling in this cycle, and it looks to me to be a positive next move.

Remember, while P&F charts reflect technical probabilities and appear to provide good information, they are not infallible. The P&F chart is always affected by outside influences, and can change quickly.

That said, the chart is poised right now, techincally, for a nice bounce back upward. We'll see if reality reflects what the chart is telling us.

Good luck-

Remember- this is NOT a recommendation, as anything you see here is strictly the product of some charts- and not advice. If you would like advice, by all means, please go talk to a professional investment counselor, instead of looking at an internet bulletin board. :D

Be careful out there.
 
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Upward momentum continues.

Normal cycle up shows at least 1120 expected on this cycle if nothing else changes. The cycles to continue for a while- price objective all the way up to 1295.

I expect 1120 next week before we get another cycle down. Good luck.

 
Looks to me like we're about to squeeze out at least one more "X" this cycle up, which would be the 1110 mark, or maybe, if we are lucky, two more "X"s to the 1120 mark, before it is time to take a pause. Nice movement upward today for the light holiday trading.

Here's today's chart- with the new "X" this morning in green, and the next "X" I think will show up in pink:

View attachment 7201

If history repeats itself, I am thinking right now that we'll hit 1110 to 1120 in the next couple of days- maybe even today.

And then, I think we're due for a pause again. Next cycle down will be light- perhaps down only to 1050 or so. Maybe not even that. We'll have to wait and see what happens.

For the month- we've already gotten some good gains. Add today's take to these numbers from Nov 1st until today: C fund:+ 5.60% S Fund: +5.18% I Fund: +4.62% Those are darn nice returns for a given month in any situation, and we're there already on the 10th of the month, with today looking like it's going to add even more. Makes one think seriously about pulling out and taking the gain, and being happy. I may just do that in the next couple days, and wait for a rest later. It's worth thinking about, anyway.

But then again, maybe not. We'll see.




Have a good day-

Thank you to all our veterans serving now, and to all who have served in the past. You made the commitment to serve our nation, and for that I am glad and grateful.


 
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Well, regular as clockwork, as they say. We filled in the 1110 nicely today, and got the one more green "X" that I was expecting. That's point #1 on the P&F Chart today.

View attachment 7263
The movement today recorded a "triple top breakout", an indicator that the motion continues in the positive direction. We got a higher high, so that is a good sign that the upswing overall isn't done yet, although we may have hit a high on this cycle.

Based on history, I am thinking we still may eek out a little more tomorrow or over the next few days, before this wave runs it's course, and falls back down again. I was VERY tempted this morning to jump out on the strength, but I didn't- mostly because I am also watching the volume I have labeled as point #2. I think we still could get another day or two of very small gains possible on the upside- not necessarily enough for another "X" to form, but perhaps enough to solidly be higher at the END of the day. I am thinking 1120 is possible here.

But then I am going to jump out myself, and wait for a retrace- which, by all accounts is just around the corner. On the downside ahead, the wave down looks to be small- maybe just down to 1050 or so. But that is enough to swipe a small gain if the timing is right.

That's part of what I hate about the two-move limit. Here we have a nice place to be, and if we had more moves to make than just two, I would have moved half to G today, and the other half to G tomorrow, most likely. With just two moves a month, however, we can't hedge our bets like that, and have to take bigger risks for smaller rewards. If we hit it exactly right, then it's fine. But if we hit it wrong, well, it sucks. That's where we are today- doing the best we can with the limited moves we can make.

Well, that's how I see it today on the P&F anyway. I am hoping I made the right move to stay in one more day, looking for a small continuation of today's strength. We'll know more tomorrow as to whether or not that was a good idea or not.

As always- you decide what YOU want to do- I'm just putting out the chart as I see it, courtesy, of course, of the good folks over at http://stockcharts.com. Always a pleasure to look at what they put on paper.

Have a great day.
And be careful out there.


 
James...I love this chart and the analysis that goes with it....it really helps....I look forward to seeing that P&F chart analysis pop up.
 
I am quite concerned today, after looking at the 2X S&P500 chart.

On the two-times chart, there is something showing that is not quite as visible on the normal 1X chart. That is- that the S&P double topped -- up last week, and then up yesterday, but at EQUAL height on the row of "X"s before moving back down to a new row of "O"s. That equal height, which I have labeled at point #1, has me concerned- we haven't seen that in quite some time. Again, it's on the 2X rather than the 1X , but it screams at me loudly as I sit here and look at it.

The other thing that has me concerned is the volume. We have had a consistent up and down set of waves, with the volume a little less in each wave before reversal came. See the line I have labled #2- where the slope of the line of the up volume has descended towards zero.

Here is the chart from the last half hour today-

View attachment 7333

I am concerned and keeping closer watch. i MAY bail out tomorrow, just to be in a safe place for the holiday time frame. Not sure yet, but am seriously considering it.

That's all-

Take care. Good luck, and be careful out there.




 
OK- Double Bottom Breakdown now showing on the X2 sensitivity on the S&P500 chart today. It's not yet showing up on the regular X1 sensitivity chart, but I think the signal here on the 2X chart is pretty clear. We had a double top, followed by a breakdown lower, and that is indicative of a new direction here, at least for the short term. Here is today's 2X chart:

View attachment 7382

Personally, I moved my own yesterday afternoon to G. Unfortunately, it won't be effective until the COB today. So now I am cheering for it to climb back up before the market closes today. I heard someone say the market closes early today- 1 pm. eastern time. Not sure of that, but if it's true, then we don't have much time left today to climb back out of this little hole.

On the 2X chart= 2110 indicated bearish price objective, would relate to 1055 on the normal 1X S&P 500. So that is our target- 1055. If it drops to 1065 I will buy back in. That's me- you make your own choices.



Good luck.
 
An update-

I have been watching the 2X chart on the S&P this week, very closely for signals.

I blew my own personal trade last week by being a day late- did my IFT request on Veterans day, but it didn't get executed until the Dubai junk hit us on friday. Another point always to remember- that using the P&F charts can help, but that anytime an outside influence kicks in, all bets are off, as those outside unexpected things can really hack the P&F chart apart. That's ok- sometime you get the bear, and sometimes the bear gets you.

Anyway- I have been watching the X2 chart because the normal X1 chart has been very quiet- with no changes, for the last week or so in a fairly tight range. That X2 chart is a little better with it's signals, so I have been keeping a close eye on it. I didn't want to move back in yet personally, because I still think we're going to drift lower soon. We'll see.

Today's X2 P&F chart says that. I watched this afternoon as the steam ran out near the close, and it started looking downward. The X2 chart confirmed that by giving a "BULL TRAP" signal this afternoon.

A BULL TRAP indicates probable lower ahead. We haven't seen a BULL TRAP in quite some time- so I've included a brief explanation of what a BULL TRAP is, courtesy of http://stockcharts.com

View attachment 7433

That delightful data from http://stockcharts.com, my favorite charting place.

Again, I am thinking S&P down to 1050 -1065 range (which would be 2100-2139 on this TIMES 2 (X2) S&P chart), and then it once again becomes likely that we go back northward again. If it gets to 1065, I am likely going to be looking to jump back in. Heck, I might even jump back in at 1075-1080. We'll just wait and see what happens tomorrow.

That's what I am thinking today. Whether or not it actually works out that way... we'll just have to wait and see.

That's all for today. Personally I am sitting on the sidelines, and looking for a nice reentry point. You choose what you think is best for you- I'm not in any way an advisor. In no way am I offering advice. I'm just another fed hoping to tweak my own future higher a little chip at a time.

Good luck, and be careful out there.






 
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