optionman's Account Talk

[amoeba]

I stand by your forecast too; as I've mentioned some of those signals (home prices, commercial real estate, unemployment, lowered earnings) in my account thread, as well as some others (reduced consumption, reduced savings, reduced lending, ineffectiveness of the TARP, delayed bottoming due to government bailout/other intervention).

After christmas retail traffic IMO is the lowest I can remember; no one is spending anything. I wouldn't be surprised to see dust storms and tumbleweeds.

My stake in "F" did fair - - - - not great - - - better than anything else over the holidays - - -; I may raise stake in "F" and go long on it until something else looks better.

Anyway, I'm out till the new year. Should be interesting to see what happens then, when trading volumes return to normal.

 

[mojo]

You still alive optionman

 

[optionman]

You still alive optionman

mojo--Yes, I am still alive. Thanks.

I'm looking forward to what happens after the euphoria over the stimulus wanes and the realization sets in that any effect it may have will be months and in some cases years away. We may see a bit more of a rally or possibly a sell the news event. Hard to say at this point. In any case I'm not convinced that a rally from here is sustainable. I expect lower lows soon.

I remain 100% G fund

Trade well my friend!

om

 

[mojo]

Thanks for the update. Glad to see your still here.

Take care.

 

[Corepuncher]

mojo--Yes, I am still alive. Thanks.

I'm looking forward to what happens after the euphoria over the stimulus wanes and the realization sets in that any effect it may have will be months and in some cases years away. We may see a bit more of a rally or possibly a sell the news event. Hard to say at this point. In any case I'm not convinced that a rally from here is sustainable. I expect lower lows soon.

I remain 100% G fund

Trade well my friend!

om

I predict some major day to day whipsaws of large magnitude...up 3%...down 5%...up 5%...etc. Eventually ending in another down trend.

I totally agree...any benefit from the stimulus will take time...and in the MEANTIME...things will continue to deteriorate at a fast rate. We are losing jobs at a rate of 1.8 million / 3 months. We can't create jobs that fast...and...again, we are trying to "replace" the lost jobs with new ones...but it's a zero sum game for the U.S. We have to PAY for those replacement jobs...and with what? Our A$$ is what. Combine that money with all the pork and it looks bad from overseas.

IF the economy does not miraculously recover by the end of the year, and we continue to deteriorate, foreign money WILL leave us and bonds will crash, rates will rocket, vice tightens further, downward spiral with the S&P at or below 500.

 

[Birchtree]

Golly Gee Rochester I do so hope you are wrong. As a contrarian I have to be bullish.

 

[optionman]

No bottom in sight yet

Technical and fundamental market conditions remain “ugly” for lack of a better term.

A few weeks ago I opined on this thread that when the euphoria over the stimulus waned and reality set in, the markets would likely head lower. Listed below are a few things that I believe will soon impact our economy and the financial markets.

· More bank foreclosures
· Commercial property foreclosure. I believe this will be the next shoe to drop and that it will impact local residential real estate and continue to drive home prices down
· Large well known corporations going bankrupt (already happening, look for it to intensify)
· Large corporations cutting dividends (already happening, probably more to come)
· Protectionism (buy America), a term you will hear more and more of going forward and can easily get out of hand as other large economies begin the same mantra for their respective countries

Although I believe the stock market has much lower to go, I also believe it will see intermittent rallies before it finds a bottom. I expect a spring rally to begin in late Feb or early Mar and last through Apr/May, but it could start from a much lower point than where it is now.

I understand this sounds overly pessimistic and it’s not that I want these things to happen, I would rather they didn’t. I would rather our economy rebound sooner than later, but I just don’t see it yet and although I believe the stimulus will have an impact IMO it will take time to see/feel its impact.

Current position/allocation---100% F fund

2009 YTD -0.13%
2008 +8.71%

Trade Well!

“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”

Ed Seykota

 

[alevin]

Re: No bottom in sight yet

Current position/allocation---100% F fund

2009 YTD -0.13%
2008 +8.71%

Trade Well!

You're doing us 2x/month'ers proud, optionman. Keep up the good work. I still stand in awe of your 2008 achievements and look forward to seeing you do at least as well this year. My ambition is to join you up there this year, though, I warn you now. :cheesy:

 

[optionman]

Short Term Rally?

I'm expecting a spring rally and moving to 100% I fund. I remain long term bearish and expect to see the recent lows taken out and lower lows made this summer, but I expect a potentially decent rally before the next leg down and am looking to take advantage of it.

Trade Well!

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Short Term Rally?

I'm expecting a spring rally and moving to 100% I fund. I remain long term bearish and expect to see the recent lows taken out and lower lows made this summer, but I expect a potentially decent rally before the next leg down and am looking to take advantage of it.

Trade Well!

This is exactly how I feel - except leaning more towards US Markets

You obviously have a strong knowledge base - would you tell us why you're so BULLISH about the Short Term Rally???

BTW - I am too but I'm more 'a gut' man and that only works for me

 

[optionman]

Re: Short Term Rally?

This is exactly how I feel - except leaning more towards US Markets

You obviously have a strong knowledge base - would you tell us why you're so BULLISH about the Short Term Rally???

BTW - I am too but I'm more 'a gut' man and that only works for me

Steady—Thanks!

Here are my reasons for being bullish:

First and foremost my propriety signal for stock funds moved from sell short to neutral and although I will generally wait for it to fully form on a buy before entering long positions, I’m giving weight to other market influences; seasonality, oversold conditions etc.

As for my decision to go 100% I fund rather than US Market funds:

I had considered going to a combination of I and S, but I like the bullish divergences on the weekly EFA chart supported by the bearish divergence on the weekly $USD chart.

I expected a bit more of a pullback for my entry yesterday, but we ended up getting a strong up day so a pullback in the next few days before the rally resumes is not out of the question, but the fact that the market is not only holding its gains, but building on them is also a good sign.

Bottom Line: The probabilities are on the bullish side at least in the short term, but we remain in a long term bear market, the likes of which we have not seen before and IMO it is far from over.

Trade well my friend!

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Short Term Rally?

Steady—Thanks!

Here are my reasons for being bullish:

First and foremost my propriety signal for stock funds moved from sell short to neutral and although I will generally wait for it to fully form on a buy before entering long positions, I’m giving weight to other market influences; seasonality, oversold conditions etc.

As for my decision to go 100% I fund rather than US Market funds:

I had considered going to a combination of I and S, but I like the bullish divergences on the weekly EFA chart supported by the bearish divergence on the weekly $USD chart.

I expected a bit more of a pullback for my entry yesterday, but we ended up getting a strong up day so a pullback in the next few days before the rally resumes is not out of the question, but the fact that the market is not only holding its gains, but building on them is also a good sign.

Bottom Line: The probabilities are on the bullish side at least in the short term, but we remain in a long term bear market, the likes of which we have not seen before and IMO it is far from over.

Trade well my friend!

Well said. Couldn't agree more.

 

[SteveTSP]

Optionman,
Thanks again for posting your thoughts and your IFT. I am trying to learn and your insights are always very informative.
Thanks again, Steve

 

[mojo]

Re: Short Term Rally?

I'm expecting a spring rally and moving to 100% I fund. I remain long term bearish and expect to see the recent lows taken out and lower lows made this summer, but I expect a potentially decent rally before the next leg down and am looking to take advantage of it.

Trade Well!

Well you certainly are taking advantage of it. Well Done! In top 10 on tracker after today. Never count out optionman

 

[Birchtree]

And I would not count Griffen out of this game either. The bottom tier is getting ready to roar. Most of the lily padders are on ice for the next eleven trading days and then many more will still be looking at the wall of worry and fear drained - sitting watching for the retest and bus that never arrives.

 

[amoeba]

When optionman talks, people listen (or they should - me included), but hasn't posted anything recently:

What are you thinking right now?

 

[Boghie]

OptionMan,

Hello...
Is there anybody in there...
Anybody at all...

Maybe he's hibernating till he makes a move. Kinda shy...

 

[JTH]

Is it true you left us?

 

[Birchtree]

I'm thinking he may have been deployed which would not be unreasonable.

 

[turbo23dog]

^^That would sure suck if you were waiting for Optionman to make a move you might follow....