optionman's Account Talk

[Braveheart]

Re: TSP Signal Update for 23 July 08

You are right on target. Oil is what it all comes down to.

The stimulus package was not a "bad idea" in that it's wonderful feeling like you've got some money to blow. In all liklihood if the same amount of money was secretly funneled to OPEC to give the appearance that OIL is dropping and the price of gas will remain way more affordable - that would probably have done even more to spark consumer spending.

You are right on target. Oil is what it all comes down to. (Part 2)

By keeping the focus on Oil - especially if it's kept more on the down side - or all the more if it looks like the price has stablized and won't be going much higher in the near future - ALL THE MORE GIVES THE APPEARANCE THAT THE WORST IS OVER (FOLKS THE PAST FEW MONTHS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT - BUT NOW WE'RE READY TO MOVE AHEAD). If this general mindset can be achieved and all the more the money on the sidelines pours in - then a sustained rally is guaranteed.

Well at 10.35 am EST Crude Inventories report should be out.

 

[Braveheart]

Re: TSP Signal Update for 23 July 08

Strong up day yesterday, mostly due to an end of day rally. The market is starting to brush aside negative earnings and other negative news which is a good sign for a continued rally. Oil continues to pullback which is also good, but financials are still weak. SPX closed near resistance at 1280. It’s not overbought by any means, but is likely to pullback a bit. I expect a pullback to the 1250/60 area if not a bit more and will see if that provides the entry point I’m looking for into stock funds. AGG is so oversold here that I expect a slight bounce in it also.

Some of the raw data I use in my propriety signal system is improving, but I’m not convinced just yet that we’ve seen the bottom in this bear market. Although I remain somewhat skeptical, I trade only in the direction of my signal.

Signals:

Stock Funds: Buy 17 July 08, entry date?, not today, perhaps tomorrow
Bond Fund: Sell 17 July 08 exit date 18 July 08

Current positions:

TSP: 100% G Fund
Trading Account: No open positions, waiting for long entry

YTD Performance:

TSP: +7.57%
Trading Account: -3.30% (beginning with SSO trade dated 3 July 08 and posted on this thread)

I couldn't take it anymore and went 100% S Fund. It looks like it will close the same as yesterday but the F Fund was killing me and sometimes things are worth waiting for but this might be the train leaving and I want my ticket so going for long ride in S Fund. THX for the information - Pray for me :nuts:LoL Braveheart

 

[Steadygain]

Re: TSP Signal Update for 23 July 08

I couldn't take it anymore and went 100% S Fund. This might be the train leaving and I want my ticket so going for long ride in S Fund. THX for the information - Pray for me :nuts:LoL Braveheart

Well several things are obvious:
1. You're incredibly smart...IQ is probably 130 or greater
2. You're a very shrewd investor
3. You're a very cool dude

Add all that together and the odds are you will not "jinx" the Fund, but rather the opposite - the Fund will acknowledge you graciously.

 

[Braveheart]

Re: TSP Signal Update for 23 July 08

Well several things are obvious:
1. You're incredibly smart...IQ is probably 130 or greater
2. You're a very shrewd investor
3. You're a very cool dude

Add all that together and the odds are you will not "jinx" the Fund, but rather the opposite - the Fund will acknowledge you graciously.

Thanks I feel better already but if I "jinx" the S Fund like the F Fund sorry. The 2 IFT rules is killing me. I would have moved last week and this week already. I think off hand I am out about $17,000 - $21,000 this month alone on the IFT B.S.

 

[optionman]

Re: TSP Signal Update for 23 July 08

I couldn't take it anymore and went 100% S Fund. It looks like it will close the same as yesterday but the F Fund was killing me and sometimes things are worth waiting for but this might be the train leaving and I want my ticket so going for long ride in S Fund. THX for the information - Pray for me :nuts:LoL Braveheart

Braveheart--Good luck my friend. I believe you will do just fine in the S fund. I do continue to expect a pullback, but not a significant one. See my daily Signal update today for more.

Trade Well!

om

 

[optionman]

TSP Signal Update for 24 July 08

SPX rallied all the way up to 1291 yesterday, but couldn’t hold it and closed at 1282. In doing so it created a candlestick chart pattern known as a shooting star. This is a fairly common reversal pattern. It carries more weight after a strong rally and when up against resistance. Take a look at the SPX on May 19th. That was a shooting star as well, but what made it stronger was that it pierced the 200 day ma but fell back and closed below it (I’m not suggesting we will see a pullback of that magnitude, just pointing it out as a reference). AGG remains extremely oversold and is likely to bounce up from these levels.

From this point I expect a pullback bringing the SPX back down to the 1250/60 area followed by a second assault on the 1280 resistance and expect that assault to be successful and blast through it. In the short term (after the second assault on 1280) I expect an SPX rally to the 1320 area. That area presents a fairly strong resistance and could be the reversal point. We are seeing increased volume, but I’m inclined to believe it’s short covering more so than buyers stepping in. Oil continues to fall which is probably fueling the rally to some degree, but financials are still presenting a problem.

I continue to remain skeptical of this rally. IMO it’s just a summer rally that will be short lived and the bear will be back sooner than later, but I will trade only in the direction of my signal and it remains on a buy for stock funds.

Signals:

Stock Funds: Buy 17 July 08, entry date?, not today, still waiting
Bond Fund: Sell 17 July 08 exit date 18 July 08

Current positions:

TSP: 100% G Fund
Trading Account: No open positions, waiting for long entry

YTD Performance:

TSP: +7.58%
Trading Account: -3.30%

 

[Braveheart]

Re: TSP Signal Update for 24 July 08

SPX rallied all the way up to 1291 yesterday, but couldn’t hold it and closed at 1282. In doing so it created a candlestick chart pattern known as a shooting star. This is a fairly common reversal pattern. It carries more weight after a strong rally and when up against resistance. Take a look at the SPX on May 19th. That was a shooting star as well, but what made it stronger was that it pierced the 200 day ma but fell back and closed below it (I’m not suggesting we will see a pullback of that magnitude, just pointing it out as a reference). AGG remains extremely oversold and is likely to bounce up from these levels.

From this point I expect a pullback bringing the SPX back down to the 1250/60 area followed by a second assault on the 1280 resistance and expect that assault to be successful and blast through it. In the short term (after the second assault on 1280) I expect an SPX rally to the 1320 area. That area presents a fairly strong resistance and could be the reversal point. We are seeing increased volume, but I’m inclined to believe it’s short covering more so than buyers stepping in. Oil continues to fall which is probably fueling the rally to some degree, but financials are still presenting a problem.

I continue to remain skeptical of this rally. IMO it’s just a summer rally that will be short lived and the bear will be back sooner than later, but I will trade only in the direction of my signal and it remains on a buy for stock funds.

Signals:

Stock Funds: Buy 17 July 08, entry date?, not today, still waiting
Bond Fund: Sell 17 July 08 exit date 18 July 08

Current positions:

TSP: 100% G Fund
Trading Account: No open positions, waiting for long entry

YTD Performance:

TSP: +7.58%
Trading Account: -3.30%

Oh yes when I saw the futures this morning I thought of you. If you heard S*IT around 5 am EST that was me. Oh well - we see what happens and I will pay more attention to you won't bet against you next time if I have any $$ left - LoL Have a great day - Braveheart

 

[optionman]

TSP Signal for 25 July 08

Most folks monitoring this thread know I’ve been waiting for a pullback in the SPX as an entry point into stock funds. We got the pullback yesterday and my stock fund signal remains on a buy so I plan to go to 100% S fund today. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a bit more of a pullback. I’ll be watching 1240 closely and if SPX begins closing below it, I’ll step back out. For my trading account I’m waiting for a chart pattern set up for a long entry. Although I use my signals for both my TSP and trading accounts, I use different entry tactics. AGG had a strong bounce up today and may move back to a buy if it closes up strongly for the next few days.

Note: I have no IFTs left for July so I’ll be tracking this entry outside of the TSP autotracker and posting the performance on this thread under Signals below.

Speaking of the autotracker, something appears to be wrong with it. For most of the year there’s been a difference between my tracker and autotracker of 1.34% as I’ve mentioned on this thread on several occasions. For some reason the difference now is 2.07%, not to significant, but something is not right. The correct number should be +6.25%. In any case, I generally post the accurate YTD performance.

Signals:

Stock Funds: Buy 17 July 08, entry date? Today
Bond Fund: Sell 17 July 08 exit date 18 July 08

Stock fund performance since entry date: C S I

Current positions:

TSP: 100% G Fund
Trading Account: No open positions, waiting for long entry

YTD Performance:

TSP: +7.59%
Trading Account: -3.30%

 

[Braveheart]

Re: TSP Signal for 25 July 08

Most folks monitoring this thread know I’ve been waiting for a pullback in the SPX as an entry point into stock funds. We got the pullback yesterday and my stock fund signal remains on a buy so I plan to go to 100% S fund today. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a bit more of a pullback. I’ll be watching 1240 closely and if SPX begins closing below it, I’ll step back out. For my trading account I’m waiting for a chart pattern set up for a long entry. Although I use my signals for both my TSP and trading accounts, I use different entry tactics. AGG had a strong bounce up today and may move back to a buy if it closes up strongly for the next few days.

Note: I have no IFTs left for July so I’ll be tracking this entry outside of the TSP autotracker and posting the performance on this thread under Signals below.

Speaking of the autotracker, something appears to be wrong with it. For most of the year there’s been a difference between my tracker and autotracker of 1.34% as I’ve mentioned on this thread on several occasions. For some reason the difference now is 2.07%, not to significant, but something is not right. The correct number should be +6.25%. In any case, I generally post the accurate YTD performance.

Signals:

Stock Funds: Buy 17 July 08, entry date? Today
Bond Fund: Sell 17 July 08 exit date 18 July 08

Stock fund performance since entry date: C S I

Current positions:

TSP: 100% G Fund
Trading Account: No open positions, waiting for long entry

YTD Performance:

TSP: +7.59%
Trading Account: -3.30%

Wll you called it. So it is my hope you see $18.31 by Monday in the S Fund. I am long anyway and it cost me .50 cents a share on day 1. Pathetic....... but today is a new day.

We are going up to $20.05 in the S Fund by August 11, 2008. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Guest2]

Re: TSP Signal for 25 July 08

We are going up to $20.05 in the S Fund by August 11, 2008. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Can you tell them to hold off until August 1st,
I'd hate to miss another 3% move up.

 

[jlpost]

OPTIONMAN,
Thanks for all you do!

Do you use ETFs that mirror C, S, I, and F in you trading account?
Which ETF are you considering for this move?

What ETFs in general do you use in your trading account?
Thanks,
jlpost

 

[Braveheart]

Re: TSP Signal for 25 July 08

Can you tell them to hold off until August 1st,
I'd hate to miss another 3% move up.

OK - done the message was sent to all the big boys hold off on the small cap rally for sb until August 1. They told me you will see $18.75 by then 8/1/08 so you won't miss the train. LMAO

 

[Guest2]

Re: TSP Signal for 25 July 08

OK - done the message was sent to all the big boys hold off on the small cap rally for sb until August 1. They told me you will see $18.75 by then 8/1/08 so you won't miss the train. LMAO

SB is honored ! Boy that takes alot of pressure off ! Pfuuuu ! :nuts:

 

[optionman]

OPTIONMAN,
Thanks for all you do!

Do you use ETFs that mirror C, S, I, and F in you trading account?
Which ETF are you considering for this move?

What ETFs in general do you use in your trading account?
Thanks,
jlpost

jl--I use SPX for C, $EMW for S, EFA for I and AGG for F. I am looking at a few ETFs I like for long and short positions and will post an in depth review including those ETFs this weekend. Stop by this weekend for my weekend post including ETFs I'm considering trading. Trade well my friend, and thanks for stopping by

om

 

[luv2read]

The market's next short-term pattern is that the next 'monthly strength period' is due to begin on Wednesday of nect week and to run through August 6.

http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm4.html

I agree. I'm in and staying in.

 

[Steadygain]

I agree. I'm in and staying in.

Should I stay or should I go now?

If I stay there will be trouble.

And if I go it will be double.

So come on and let me know - should I stay or should I go?

The jury is in and the verdict is given:
Robo is incredibly in tune with Market Analysis and Luv2read is about as smart as you can get.

I second this - if you're in - you're in to win. :laugh::nuts:

 

[FogSailing]

Keep this up Steady and (1) I'm gonna nominate you (and L2R, CP, SLBBRD, etc) for a Grammy or a Pulitzer and (2) I'm gonna consign all you perma-bulls to Birch's site..

Hope you guys have a great weekend..

FS

 

[Braveheart]

jl--I use SPX for C, $EMW for S, EFA for I and AGG for F. I am looking at a few ETFs I like for long and short positions and will post an in depth review including those ETFs this weekend. Stop by this weekend for my weekend post including ETFs I'm considering trading. Trade well my friend, and thanks for stopping by

om

I have to hand it to you right on target again. I hope you got in. The S Fund went up but you should get a price of $17.95 or about there. So Cheers - I will follow you but this time got greedy by 1 day and it cost me. Have a great weekend - THX Braveheart

 

[Frixxxx]

Should I stay or should I go now?

If I stay there will be trouble.

And if I go it will be double.

So come on and let me know - should I stay or should I go?

Oh we got trouble, and that start's with "T" and that rhymes with "P" and that stands for POOL. I'm out by the pool this weekend....G/L next week!

 

[Braveheart]

Should I stay or should I go now?

If I stay there will be trouble.

And if I go it will be double.

So come on and let me know - should I stay or should I go?

The jury is in and the verdict is given:
Robo is incredibly in tune with Market Analysis and Luv2read is about as smart as you can get.

I second this - if you're in - you're in to win. :laugh::nuts:

Don't you draw the queen of diamonds boy she'll beat you if she's able.

But the queen of hearts is always your best bet.

It seems to me some fine things have been laid upon your table but you only want the ones you can't get.....

And Freedon Oh Freedon that's just some people taling

Your prison is walking through this world all alone.


What does this all mean nothing I just like the song - Have a great weekend - Braveheart