optionman's Account Talk

[Braveheart]

Re: Signal Update for 18 July 08

My stock fund signal moved to a buy and bond fund signal to a sell as of the close yesterday. Unfortunately, I used one of my IFTs earlier this month trying to catch a bounce when the SPX was extremely oversold and the second moving from that position to the bond fund so I’ll be moving to 100% G fund today.

Taking positions at oversold or overbought market extremes and against my signal system has not worked out so in the future I’ll trade only in the direction of my signal even if the market is at extremes. Having said that, if I had an IFT available I would not enter today, I would wait for a pullback and want to see my signal remain in effect during the pullback. This generally happens at some point between 1-10 days after a signal is generated. I’ll post the entry point that I would take once we get it for those monitoring this thread.

Although I will not trade against my signal, I still don’t believe we are out of the woods just yet. Some of the raw data I review as a part of my system does not support a prolonged rally. The SPX closed right on resistance at 1260 and has a stronger resistance point at 1275/80. If it can breach the 1280 resistance it may launch into a nice summer rally, but there is a lot of negative data to overcome.

Trade Well!

om

I went to the F Fund as of today got in at $12.01 should have gone to the I Fund when I wanted to but waited. Since I am in the F so low and it's down to $11.97 should I hold or bail to the C, S & I

 

[optionman]

Re: Signal Update for 18 July 08

I went to the F Fund as of today got in at $12.01 should have gone to the I Fund when I wanted to but waited. Since I am in the F so low and it's down to $11.97 should I hold or bail to the C, S & I

Braveheart--If I had an IFT available to me I would move to the S fund, but not until I get the expected entry point sometime in the next 1-10 days. I will post the entry I would take here on this thread when we get it. Since bonds have fell so far in the last 3 days and are oversold they will likely bounce so I would hold until I got the entry point for stocks, then move.

Trade Well!

om

 

[optionman]

Signal Update for 21 July 08

Volume picked up on the SPX for the last 3 days which bodes well for a short term rally. If oil continues to decline and financials continue to be viewed as “out of the woods” the rally will likely continue, but if oil begins rising and/or we get bad news from financials it will likely put a damper on any attempt to rally and could derail it.

We have post options expiration or POE next week. The significance with POE is that if Wednesday through Friday of options expiration week (last week) has a strong move in either direction, there’s a strong tendency for the market to move opposite of that direction during POE.

Barring any bad news from financials or rising oil prices I expect a pullback to the 1240/45 level followed by a rally to the 1275/80 level. IMO 1275/80 is the critical point for SPX to overcome and if it does overcome it we could see a rally up to 1320. If not, it could spell the end to this rally.

My stock fund signal remains on a buy and bond fund signal on a sell. I’ve used my IFTs for July, but I will post and track the entry I would take if I had an IFT available.

Although my signal is on a buy for stocks and I will not trade against it, I continue to believe we have not seen the lows of this bear market. I expect this rally to fail at some point, just don’t know where that may happen yet.

Current positions:

TSP: 100% G Fund

Trading Account: No Open position, waiting for long entry

YTD Performance:

TSP: +7.52%

Trading Account: -3.30% (beginning with SSO trade dated 3 July 08 and posted on this thread, includes commissions and SEC fees)

Now a question for members/moderators about posting charts etc. I would like to add a bit more depth to my postings by posting a chart and extract of a spreadsheet but am having problems doing so. I don’t want to post them as jpeg files that have to be opened, but rather post them so that when members open the post the chart and spreadsheet along with my comments open. I use stockcharts.com for my charts and Microsoft Excel for my spreadsheets and paste them into MS Paint. I appreciate any advice.

Trade Well!

om

 

[Corepuncher]

Your SPX levels are the same as mine. I too am out of IFT's...except I can go to G at any time.

If Monday is up good, I may sell some.

For me,10% was bought at 1238, 40% at 1249, and 50% at 1280. That is an average near 1260 for all of my stocks, but about 50% had an average buy price of 1247...so selling at 1260+ will lock myself in a profit...assuming we go down later.

Now, the problem is I can't buy back lower until 10 trading days from now. So, for those of us with no IFT's, we need to figure out where stocks will be 10 days from now.

My experimental system is showing some analogs to early September 1990. Also 1 analog for early April 2001.

In 1990, we were within 1 month of the bottom and it was not a bear market, but a correction.

In 2001, we were on the verge of an explosive rally for 2 months, before making another bottom later in the year. The large scale background pattern was more similar in 2001 (new bear market).

In both these scenarios, the FED was dropping interest rates significantly and we had DEFLATION. Keep that in mind.

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Signal Update for 18 July 08

Braveheart--If I had an IFT available to me I would move to the S fund, but not until I get the expected entry point sometime in the next 1-10 days. I will post the entry I would take here on this thread when we get it. Since bonds have fell so far in the last 3 days and are oversold they will likely bounce so I would hold until I got the entry point for stocks, then move.

Trade Well!

om

Thank You - Braveheart

 

[optionman]

My experimental system is showing some analogs to early September 1990. Also 1 analog for early April 2001.

In 1990, we were within 1 month of the bottom and it was not a bear market, but a correction.

In 2001, we were on the verge of an explosive rally for 2 months, before making another bottom later in the year. The large scale background pattern was more similar in 2001 (new bear market).

In both these scenarios, the FED was dropping interest rates significantly and we had DEFLATION. Keep that in mind.

Corepuncher--Sounds like you're on to something. The other thing to keep in mind is oil. During both of those timeframes oil was much more favorable than now, not sure if that will impact your experimental system, but something to keep in mind since it has a lot to do with where we are in the market today. Trade Well!

om

 

[Braveheart]

Corepuncher--Sounds like you're on to something. The other thing to keep in mind is oil. During both of those timeframes oil was much more favorable than now, not sure if that will impact your experimental system, but something to keep in mind since it has a lot to do with where we are in the market today. Trade Well!

om

I will still wait on the S Fund I guess but you are da man. Oil is up early since Iran was given a 2 week notice last time there was a notice that was (IRAQ). Tropical storm Dolly could delay Oil and disrupt production.

Any excuse to jack prices over $135.00

 

[optionman]

I will still wait on the S Fund I guess but you are da man. Oil is up early since Iran was given a 2 week notice last time there was a notice that was (IRAQ). Tropical storm Dolly could delay Oil and disrupt production.

Any excuse to jack prices over $135.00

Braveheart--Thanks, wish I had an IFT left this month. I expect an entry point in the next day or so.

om

 

[luv2read]

watching and waiting OM.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

S (DWCPF +.98%) did beautifully today, C fund flat. That supposed VIX spike on last wednesday up to ~ 38 i think, has been wiped off the charts, making the capitulation suspect as well as any follow through rally.

 

[Steadygain]

S (DWCPF +.98%) did beautifully today.

Thanks, that's very well put!

I spent a few days in Rockville, MD.

My brother added another 4 or 5 feet of "fabric" fencing to his metal fence and they are thrilled to pieces. NO DEER in their yard for weeks on end. The deer have all learned to go around his yard.

Met the coolest nephew on Earth - who works at Gold's Gym in Rockville and enjoyed a little tour and a great lunch.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

[
Met the coolest nephew on Earth - who works at Gold's Gym in Rockville and enjoyed a little tour and a great lunch.

did you take him to Hooters for a bucket of roasted oysters?

 

[optionman]

Signal Update for 22 July 08

Another indecision day on the SPX Monday represented by a doji candle. Mixed earnings reports from a few of the heavy weights after the close yesterday will likely sway the market today. Futures have been “redlining” just about all day and don’t seem to be letting up much. Oil has been holding steady the last few days which is good. If we get a slight pullback it may present a good entry point.

Stock Funds: Buy signal on 17 July 08, entry date?

Bond Fund: Sell signal on 17 July 08 exit date 18 July 08

Current positions:

TSP: 100% G Fund

Trading Account: No open positions, waiting for long entry

YTD Performance:

TSP: +7.56%

Trading Account: -3.30% (beginning with SSO trade dated 3 July 08 and posted on this thread, includes commissions and SEC fees)

Trade Well!

om

 

[Braveheart]

Re: Signal Update for 22 July 08

Another indecision day on the SPX Monday represented by a doji candle. Mixed earnings reports from a few of the heavy weights after the close yesterday will likely sway the market today. Futures have been “redlining” just about all day and don’t seem to be letting up much. Oil has been holding steady the last few days which is good. If we get a slight pullback it may present a good entry point.

Stock Funds: Buy signal on 17 July 08, entry date?

Bond Fund: Sell signal on 17 July 08 exit date 18 July 08

Current positions:

TSP: 100% G Fund

Trading Account: No open positions, waiting for long entry

YTD Performance:

TSP: +7.56%

Trading Account: -3.30% (beginning with SSO trade dated 3 July 08 and posted on this thread, includes commissions and SEC fees)

Trade Well!

om

Still waiting on the S Fund it look like the Bond Market may gain a few cents with this decline. Give me the word and the move to the is done but you were right saying wait could be 1-10 days and since American Express and Apple had unexpected reports the decine would be a good point to get in but right now the S Fuund is over $18 in a perfect world $17.40 would be nice.

 

[Braveheart]

Well I waited and was ready to jump in with Oil down $5.00+ and was going 75 S Fund ----25 I Fund all based upon Oil. The only reason and since I am in the F Fund is I am looking for a drop but that may not happen here.

Hopefully tomorrow will be the day the Fed and that damn book will be released tomorrow so the F Fund is really going to get smoked.

See Ya Tomorrow waiting on your good call and if I move in as you say on emotion most often I will lose.

THX - Braveheart

 

[optionman]

Well I waited and was ready to jump in with Oil down $5.00+ and was going 75 S Fund ----25 I Fund all based upon Oil. The only reason and since I am in the F Fund is I am looking for a drop but that may not happen here.

Hopefully tomorrow will be the day the Fed and that damn book will be released tomorrow so the F Fund is really going to get smoked.

See Ya Tomorrow waiting on your good call and if I move in as you say on emotion most often I will lose.

THX - Braveheart

Braveheart--I'm still in a holding pattern, waiting to see a bit of a pullback and see how my signal reacts to it before entering. I expect only a slight pullback and for my signal to remain on a buy providing an entry. See my update today for more. Thanks.

om

 

[optionman]

TSP Signal Update for 23 July 08

Strong up day yesterday, mostly due to an end of day rally. The market is starting to brush aside negative earnings and other negative news which is a good sign for a continued rally. Oil continues to pullback which is also good, but financials are still weak. SPX closed near resistance at 1280. It’s not overbought by any means, but is likely to pullback a bit. I expect a pullback to the 1250/60 area if not a bit more and will see if that provides the entry point I’m looking for into stock funds. AGG is so oversold here that I expect a slight bounce in it also.

Some of the raw data I use in my propriety signal system is improving, but I’m not convinced just yet that we’ve seen the bottom in this bear market. Although I remain somewhat skeptical, I trade only in the direction of my signal.

Signals:

Stock Funds: Buy 17 July 08, entry date?, not today, perhaps tomorrow
Bond Fund: Sell 17 July 08 exit date 18 July 08

Current positions:

TSP: 100% G Fund
Trading Account: No open positions, waiting for long entry

YTD Performance:

TSP: +7.57%
Trading Account: -3.30% (beginning with SSO trade dated 3 July 08 and posted on this thread)

 

[Braveheart]

Re: TSP Signal Update for 23 July 08

Strong up day yesterday, mostly due to an end of day rally. The market is starting to brush aside negative earnings and other negative news which is a good sign for a continued rally. Oil continues to pullback which is also good, but financials are still weak. SPX closed near resistance at 1280. It’s not overbought by any means, but is likely to pullback a bit. I expect a pullback to the 1250/60 area if not a bit more and will see if that provides the entry point I’m looking for into stock funds. AGG is so oversold here that I expect a slight bounce in it also.

Some of the raw data I use in my propriety signal system is improving, but I’m not convinced just yet that we’ve seen the bottom in this bear market. Although I remain somewhat skeptical, I trade only in the direction of my signal.

Signals:

Stock Funds: Buy 17 July 08, entry date?, not today, perhaps tomorrow
Bond Fund: Sell 17 July 08 exit date 18 July 08

Current positions:

TSP: 100% G Fund
Trading Account: No open positions, waiting for long entry

YTD Performance:

TSP: +7.57%
Trading Account: -3.30% (beginning with SSO trade dated 3 July 08 and posted on this thread)

I think the big boys moved out of Oil after it was pushed up to $148 and moved into Stocks.

If I am right now the big boys have billions more ready to spend. I never saw such horrible reports on a stock and it spikes after the bad news. So now bad news is good news for investing - this rally has me totally lost and Oil is the only difference maker from what I see. Maybe the Oil boys don't want to see a bottom until they pump the market up to 13000 and then dump the junk and move right back to Oil.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: TSP Signal Update for 23 July 08

this rally has me totally lost and Oil is the only difference maker from what I see.

You are right on target. Oil is what it all comes down to.

The stimulus package was not a "bad idea" in that it's wonderful feeling like you've got some money to blow. In all liklihood if the same amount of money was secretly funneled to OPEC to give the appearance that OIL is dropping and the price of gas will remain way more affordable - that would probably have done even more to spark consumer spending.

You are right on target. Oil is what it all comes down to. (Part 2)

By keeping the focus on Oil - especially if it's kept more on the down side - or all the more if it looks like the price has stablized and won't be going much higher in the near future - ALL THE MORE GIVES THE APPEARANCE THAT THE WORST IS OVER (FOLKS THE PAST FEW MONTHS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT - BUT NOW WE'RE READY TO MOVE AHEAD). If this general mindset can be achieved and all the more the money on the sidelines pours in - then a sustained rally is guaranteed.

 

[Silverbird]

I agree, it's oil. I can't predict what the market is going to do until after Oil closes (after 2:30PM). I can't think of any other explanation besides oil, unless it's those FreddieMacs at the Dow lunch counter.:toung: