OPEX Volatility Continues

I'm going to keep this short as the blog I was writing was lost due to some inadvertent key strokes that I made. And I hate rework.

Here's tonight's charts:

NAMO-NYMO.jpg

NAMO and NYMO moved lower today and remain on sells.

NAHL-NYHL.jpg

NAHL and NYHL are back on buys.

TRIN-TRINQ.jpg

TRIN and TRINQ are both on sells.

BPCOMPQ.png

BPCOMPQ crossed that upper bollinger band and flipped to a sell condition today.

So the signals are mixed, and that keeps the system in a buy condition.

I am going to begin limiting my day to day analysis of the Seven Sentinels as I'd like to revert back to a "system" level approach and not read too much into the daily fluctuations. Most of the time it is unnecessary anyway.

It does seem as though the bulls and bears are locked in a battle. And as I've been saying, it's OPEX, which often means volatility. In spite of the sideways action, the trend is still up.
 
I too hate those "inadvertent key strokes". The same thing happened to me today while transfering a work ticket.

Like the text I lost, I'm sure yours was witty, concise and perhaps profound.:cheesy:

Thanks for all you do.

BTW, I'm getting very itchy to move back in to equities after my wonderful move to G at the lowest share prices YTD. Ah, it's only 6 or so percent.
 
Is there an easier way to see the SS? Like represented as 7 Stoplights using indicators of either red or green?

I know the graphs are what counts to see the trends but seven red or green dots at the top or bottom might summarize for a quick look.
 
Thank you coolhand. I read all of your commentaries and I know a lot of us really appreciate your time and effort!! I hope the inadvertant key stroke didn't affect your decision and you just need a short break. I'm just starting to learn how to read your charts but I was hoping you could answer a question; Do the TRIN and TRINQ charts both trigger to sell when they rise above the 13 day EMA? It seems like it's the opposite of the other charts. Thank you again and PLEASE keep posting!!!!!
 
DigDugII;bt4898 said:
Thank you coolhand. I read all of your commentaries and I know a lot of us really appreciate your time and effort!! I hope the inadvertant key stroke didn't affect your decision and you just need a short break. I'm just starting to learn how to read your charts but I was hoping you could answer a question; Do the TRIN and TRINQ charts both trigger to sell when they rise above the 13 day EMA? It seems like it's the opposite of the other charts. Thank you again and PLEASE keep posting!!!!!

TRIN and TRINQ trigger sells when they rise above the 13 day EMA.

As far as taking a break goes, JTH said the other day that cranking out a blog every day isn't easy. He is correct. And the writing is on the wall that I need to scale back the time I put into it. I have a day job like most everyone else who reads my blog and that job is becoming more challenging in terms of time and travel. Ten and half hours of every day goes into my day job, and when I get home I still have to make dinner and take care of any other day to day issues as well as find time to blog.

For the moment I need time to carefully weigh my options first. I do not intend to stop blogging, but some changes will have to be made to better accommodate my schedule.
 
turbo23dog;bt4895 said:
Is there an easier way to see the SS? Like represented as 7 Stoplights using indicators of either red or green?

I know the graphs are what counts to see the trends but seven red or green dots at the top or bottom might summarize for a quick look.

I like that idea. I'll take a close look at doing something like that.
 
Observations:
1 You get what you pay for.
2 CH almost always states how many signals were buys in the paragraph below the six graphs.
3 The graphs tell much more information than a simple count of buys vs sells. Just like there is more to a joke than just the punchline.
4 If CH decides to include a counter, I recommend something exrtemely simple, like "Today's Sentinels brought to you by the number (x)."
5 I was in beautiful Orlando 4 weeks ago while it was snowing here in Seattle. So, coolhand... are there any job openings where you are?;)
 
murph;bt4904 said:
Observations:
1 You get what you pay for.
2 CH almost always states how many signals were buys in the paragraph below the six graphs.
3 The graphs tell much more information than a simple count of buys vs sells. Just like there is more to a joke than just the punchline.
4 If CH decides to include a counter, I recommend something exrtemely simple, like "Today's Sentinels brought to you by the number (x)."
5 I was in beautiful Orlando 4 weeks ago while it was snowing here in Seattle. So, coolhand... are there any job openings where you are?;)

Hi murph. The charts do provide some measure of insight taken individually, but the system doesn't work without all seven. I have been been speaking to the charts for awhile now, but it was actually too much commentary relative to the system. There were reasons why I began doing that, but I realize now I was overdoing it. I will address this in more detail hopefully over the weekend.

Seattle? My step son just spent the night there Monday on his way to his new assignment in Japan.
 
DigDugII;bt4898 said:
Thank you coolhand. I read all of your commentaries and I know a lot of us really appreciate your time and effort!! I hope the inadvertant key stroke didn't affect your decision and you just need a short break. I'm just starting to learn how to read your charts but I was hoping you could answer a question; Do the TRIN and TRINQ charts both trigger to sell when they rise above the 13 day EMA? It seems like it's the opposite of the other charts. Thank you again and PLEASE keep posting!!!!!

As far as taking a break goes, JTH said the other day that cranking out a blog every day isn't easy. He is correct. And the writing is on the wall that I need to scale back the time I put into it. I have a day job like most everyone else who reads my blog and that job is becoming more challenging in terms of time and travel. Ten and half hours of every day goes into my day job, and when I get home I still have to make dinner and take care of any other day to day issues as well as find time to blog.
For the moment I need time to carefully weigh my options first. I do not intend to stop blogging, but some changes will have to be made to better accommodate my schedule.[/QUOTE]

Wow, 10.5 hours/day is a full schedule. I avg. at least 45/wk and another 5.5 hours/wk commuting. Then it's straight to 3 kids baseball/softball practices/games for 3 different teams several times/week......so I know how you feel when it comes to the 'free time' that's left at the end of the day. I have to however, allow myself a little time nearly every night, even it it's after midnight, to appreciate you and other's much appreciated hard work.

I got 'promoted' to a higher position a few months ago, however they failed to mention that they were eliminating the TDA for my old position so now I get to do 2 jobs for a little more than the price of 1. I sure wish I got paid the GS23 equivalent! Eliminating raises, increasing FERS and FEHB contributions, increasing high 3's to high 5's, what's next....Social Security? Lots of things to look forward to in the next 12 - 15 more years before I can retire so some serious financial planning was in order. At age 50, I have too much time served to start a new career, so that's when I decided to take control of my investments around 4 years ago. Although I just joined TSP Talk this past December, I have routinely monitored the website for the last 4 and daily for the last 2. Wow, what a positive difference in my annual return when I stopped putting the sheep out to pasture and checking on the flock a few times/year hoping that the wolves would manage my assets wisely! I've averaged around 18%/year during the same timeframe and I owe a lot of this new-found success to folks like you, Mr. Crowely, and others that I know have donated a LOT of their time sharing their expertise and financial analyses to other Federal workers like me that don't know squat about the subject. I know there's a good bit of luck involved (like I wish I would have captured the full impact of that 1.71% gain today, but had it gone the other way I would have been hating it more simply because I ignored a lot of the 'proceed with caution' signs) and I don't pretend to know very much, however I do continue to learn and have made some good moves as a result. I consider it a lot like 'educated gambling' and hanging out at the casino with the card counters! When talking with other Federal friends I always encourage them to take control of their accounts and add this website to their Favorites Bar AFTER they sign up!

Regarding your 7-Sentinels, where do you get the charts that you were posting? I like the new format but if there is one thing that wildlife biologists readily understand that is applicable to finances, is trend charts.

Thanks again for all of your valuable input!

DD
 
DigDugII;bt4915 said:
As far as taking a break goes, JTH said the other day that cranking out a blog every day isn't easy. He is correct. And the writing is on the wall that I need to scale back the time I put into it. I have a day job like most everyone else who reads my blog and that job is becoming more challenging in terms of time and travel. Ten and half hours of every day goes into my day job, and when I get home I still have to make dinner and take care of any other day to day issues as well as find time to blog.
For the moment I need time to carefully weigh my options first. I do not intend to stop blogging, but some changes will have to be made to better accommodate my schedule.

Wow, 10.5 hours/day is a full schedule. I avg. at least 45/wk and another 5.5 hours/wk commuting. Then it's straight to 3 kids baseball/softball practices/games for 3 different teams several times/week......so I know how you feel when it comes to the 'free time' that's left at the end of the day. I have to however, allow myself a little time nearly every night, even it it's after midnight, to appreciate you and other's much appreciated hard work.

I got 'promoted' to a higher position a few months ago, however they failed to mention that they were eliminating the TDA for my old position so now I get to do 2 jobs for a little more than the price of 1. I sure wish I got paid the GS23 equivalent! Eliminating raises, increasing FERS and FEHB contributions, increasing high 3's to high 5's, what's next....Social Security? Lots of things to look forward to in the next 12 - 15 more years before I can retire so some serious financial planning was in order. At age 50, I have too much time served to start a new career, so that's when I decided to take control of my investments around 4 years ago. Although I just joined TSP Talk this past December, I have routinely monitored the website for the last 4 and daily for the last 2. Wow, what a positive difference in my annual return when I stopped putting the sheep out to pasture and checking on the flock a few times/year hoping that the wolves would manage my assets wisely! I've averaged around 18%/year during the same timeframe and I owe a lot of this new-found success to folks like you, Mr. Crowely, and others that I know have donated a LOT of their time sharing their expertise and financial analyses to other Federal workers like me that don't know squat about the subject. I know there's a good bit of luck involved (like I wish I would have captured the full impact of that 1.71% gain today, but had it gone the other way I would have been hating it more simply because I ignored a lot of the 'proceed with caution' signs) and I don't pretend to know very much, however I do continue to learn and have made some good moves as a result. I consider it a lot like 'educated gambling' and hanging out at the casino with the card counters! When talking with other Federal friends I always encourage them to take control of their accounts and add this website to their Favorites Bar AFTER they sign up!

Regarding your 7-Sentinels, where do you get the charts that you were posting? I like the new format but if there is one thing that wildlife biologists readily understand that is applicable to finances, is trend charts.

Thanks again for all of your valuable input!

DD[/QUOTE]

With respect to each bolded area of your post...

First, the work hours include travel time. I'm not "that" dedicated. :D

Second, squeezing productivity is happening just about everywhere now.

Third, BINGO! We all need to be aware of the ramifications to our retirements as a result of the fiscal debacle slowly unfolding before our eyes.

Fourth, "educated gambling" is probably not far from the truth. We think alike. ;)

Thanks for the post. I'll speak more to some of these points down the road.
 
I find it amazing to see that most TSP'ers would vote for a republican given the republican's tendency to be against all things related to the security and well being of federal employees and Social Security recipients. The republican's that are currently up for office are the worst of the bunch when it comes to protection of federal employees, retiress and women's rights. There is something wrong here. Are federal employees and retirees as stupid as they seem to be? Maybe that is why they can constantly be trounced on when it comes to these issues. Come on people, stick up for what is in your best interests.
 
Back
Top