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OK I Fund Dogs Where Are You?
- Thread starter nnuut
- Start date
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
As of 2:15 CT 11 March 2005
Over at www.barcharts.comEFA was a 96% buy. The stats looked good. Notice the MACD is even widening!
Attachment.
Rgds
Spaf
As of 2:15 CT 11 March 2005
Over at www.barcharts.comEFA was a 96% buy. The stats looked good. Notice the MACD is even widening!
Attachment.
Rgds
Spaf
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
Spaf wrote:
Spaf wrote:
Hey Spaf, even I can understand that chart! I like it!As of 2:15 CT 11 March 2005
Over at http://www.barcharts.comEFA was a 96% buy. The stats looked good. Notice the MACD is even widening!
Attachment.
Rgds
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
Coolhand and Spaf, Nice to see you both. You guys are hard at work and you will be the most informed as time passes. Interesting to see - I think we picked up a positive 0.5% even though the EFA refelected a slight loss. The other funds got hammered less G fund. I think we are in for a ride these next months. I have a difficult job so I am often not near the action. Nice to see you both active and Tom. Wonder what happened to Puerto Rico and Chaplain?? Nice weekend guys!
Coolhand and Spaf, Nice to see you both. You guys are hard at work and you will be the most informed as time passes. Interesting to see - I think we picked up a positive 0.5% even though the EFA refelected a slight loss. The other funds got hammered less G fund. I think we are in for a ride these next months. I have a difficult job so I am often not near the action. Nice to see you both active and Tom. Wonder what happened to Puerto Rico and Chaplain?? Nice weekend guys!
puertorico
Member
imported post
I tHInk january let me with a bad sabor .
now I 'm scare hiding in G.waiting for
a sale
PR is lurking
I tHInk january let me with a bad sabor .
now I 'm scare hiding in G.waiting for
a sale
PR is lurking
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
coolhand wrote:
Rgds!! Spaf
coolhand wrote:
Yah! Checkin smed! Will be at the hanger bar washing off all the whipsaws. Went over to the G-fund, where all the bulls were asleep and snoring. Wow! Left there and dropped about 15% in the I-fund to see if anything would bite! Trying to stay away from the red in US equities. Market kind of overcast and gloomy. Well the G-fund is warm and fuzzy at least!
Rgds!!
SpafTEUFEL HUNDEN
Member
imported post
tspgo_com wrote:
tspgo_com wrote:
It looks as if you hit this right on the money. The I is below the 10DMA and dropping. I had made an IFT to 100% G just prior to the deadline this morning. Now I'll Wait and see.
Ragin Cajun
Member
imported post
.62 drop in the EAFE index on Tuesday???
This is confusing since the FTSE was up .5 and the Japanese market was barely down. Plus.........(from Marketwatch)
The euro briefly dipped below $1.33 for the first time in a week and was trading at $1.3308, down 0.4 percent.
Meanwhile, the dollar traded at 104.54 yen, down 0.4 percent, close to its value before the capital flow news
I'm waiting to see what the I fund did today, but am just a bit perplexed IF it goes down as much as .62. The numbers indicate a flat to slightly up day. What am I missing?
Oh well...any answers?
Rajun Cajun
.62 drop in the EAFE index on Tuesday???
This is confusing since the FTSE was up .5 and the Japanese market was barely down. Plus.........(from Marketwatch)
The euro briefly dipped below $1.33 for the first time in a week and was trading at $1.3308, down 0.4 percent.
Meanwhile, the dollar traded at 104.54 yen, down 0.4 percent, close to its value before the capital flow news
I'm waiting to see what the I fund did today, but am just a bit perplexed IF it goes down as much as .62. The numbers indicate a flat to slightly up day. What am I missing?
Oh well...any answers?
Rajun Cajun
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
The I fund picked up a nickle today.The dollar is not going to rally to any great heights in the foreseeable future (IMHO). That's why I like this fund right now. That and at some point we'll get a bounce in equities. Still, anything can happen. Let's hope we have no more anthrax issues or anything else of that nature influencing the market.
The I fund picked up a nickle today.The dollar is not going to rally to any great heights in the foreseeable future (IMHO). That's why I like this fund right now. That and at some point we'll get a bounce in equities. Still, anything can happen. Let's hope we have no more anthrax issues or anything else of that nature influencing the market.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
imported post
Yes, I am at the point of terminal confusion when it comes to the I fund? Down .62 today and makes 5 cents? Yesterday down .33 lost 14 cents? AmI wrong or just been dancing too much?:*I know the dollar gained today, but not that much! -$ -$ Not good! We will kill them tomorrow or roll further down the hill. Might have to join Tom in the "Good" fund.:!
Yes, I am at the point of terminal confusion when it comes to the I fund? Down .62 today and makes 5 cents? Yesterday down .33 lost 14 cents? AmI wrong or just been dancing too much?:*I know the dollar gained today, but not that much! -$ -$ Not good! We will kill them tomorrow or roll further down the hill. Might have to join Tom in the "Good" fund.:!
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
Well, I played this a little different. I started out40% I on Friday and then another 20% Monday on that down day. I'mslightly aheadright now. I still have another 40% in G that I can use to mitigate lossesor add to gains as this market is impossible to figure out day to day. I am starting to look at this market in a more intermediate view now. That is, play the trends andnot the wiggles. Tomgives great adviceand I certainly understand why he is still 100% G.
Well, I played this a little different. I started out40% I on Friday and then another 20% Monday on that down day. I'mslightly aheadright now. I still have another 40% in G that I can use to mitigate lossesor add to gains as this market is impossible to figure out day to day. I am starting to look at this market in a more intermediate view now. That is, play the trends andnot the wiggles. Tomgives great adviceand I certainly understand why he is still 100% G.
GGal
Active member
imported post
"European stock markets finished higher Tuesday. In London, the Financial Times-Stock Exchange 100 rose 24.60 points, or 0.49%, to 4,999.60.
Germany's DAX index gained 20.39 points, or 0.47%, moving to 4,387.69.
In Paris, the CAC 40 index rose 29.19 points, or 0.72%, to 4,077.74.
Asian markets finished lower Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei-225 index lossed 29.16 points, or 0.25%, to 11,821.09. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell 90.10 points, or 0.65%, to 13,816.75."
Does anyone know how this news relates to what happened with I today?
Gawga Peaches Are Sweeter!
GeorgiaGal
"European stock markets finished higher Tuesday. In London, the Financial Times-Stock Exchange 100 rose 24.60 points, or 0.49%, to 4,999.60.
Germany's DAX index gained 20.39 points, or 0.47%, moving to 4,387.69.
In Paris, the CAC 40 index rose 29.19 points, or 0.72%, to 4,077.74.
Asian markets finished lower Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei-225 index lossed 29.16 points, or 0.25%, to 11,821.09. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell 90.10 points, or 0.65%, to 13,816.75."
Does anyone know how this news relates to what happened with I today?
Gawga Peaches Are Sweeter!
GeorgiaGal
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
imported post
No way Georgia Gal. Not me, can't you see? Must me the average of all modified by the fair value of the Dollar against the other currencies. Dollar up make more, Dollar down make less, lots less sometime, evidently. Someone explained this on the board the other day, but can't find the post.Who are YOU :#.
No way Georgia Gal. Not me, can't you see? Must me the average of all modified by the fair value of the Dollar against the other currencies. Dollar up make more, Dollar down make less, lots less sometime, evidently. Someone explained this on the board the other day, but can't find the post.Who are YOU :#.
imported post
nnuut wrote:
I just posted this in my account talk:
"...yesterday there was a big difference between the I fund and the EAFE. EAFE showed a loss of 0.62%, while the I fund gained 0.31%. That's nearly a 1% swing, and is not common. I have gone through the data as far back as I can, and see that such a big discrepancy is usually followed by a comepensatory discrepancy. That is, I expect the I fund to gain significantly less than the EAFE today, offering a good opportunity to buy back in. That being said, my charts show that 1) this is not true all the time, and 2) even when it happens, sometimes it takes 2 days."
I am betting that the I fund will do about 0.5 - 1.0% worse than the EAFE today to compensate for yesterday, and am using this as one reason to jump back to 100% I. My data are suggestive only, and I could easily get burned. But I am willing to take a shot. In any event, I still think I fund is a good bet medium term, barring any major downturn.
nnuut wrote:
I don't know why this happens, but it has been noted on this board before. Seems like there is sometimes a lag between the I fund and the EAFE quote. Over longer time frames they track well, but there can be some weird day to day discrepencies.
I just posted this in my account talk:
"...yesterday there was a big difference between the I fund and the EAFE. EAFE showed a loss of 0.62%, while the I fund gained 0.31%. That's nearly a 1% swing, and is not common. I have gone through the data as far back as I can, and see that such a big discrepancy is usually followed by a comepensatory discrepancy. That is, I expect the I fund to gain significantly less than the EAFE today, offering a good opportunity to buy back in. That being said, my charts show that 1) this is not true all the time, and 2) even when it happens, sometimes it takes 2 days."
I am betting that the I fund will do about 0.5 - 1.0% worse than the EAFE today to compensate for yesterday, and am using this as one reason to jump back to 100% I. My data are suggestive only, and I could easily get burned. But I am willing to take a shot. In any event, I still think I fund is a good bet medium term, barring any major downturn.
clester
Well-known member
imported post
Let me give you my mrthod for calculating the I fund.
First look at the currencies. (I use advfn.com under FOREX tab). The EURO has the most weight, pound and Yen. I avg them. So say the EURO is .7 green
Now look at the FTSE (UKX), say its -.7 red.
In this case it would avg out to 0.0.
now look at nikkei and other euro stocks. if they have a negative slant sau nikkei -.5 and euro stock about -.5 then I use a lighter weight for these nd my guess would be the I fund -.2 .
You just can't use the EFA. It's usually way off.
As of right now FTSE is -1.4% and the euro is +.8 so we're at -.6
Nikkei was up a little and yen is stronger so I would give maybe +.2 which makes us now at -.4. The rest of europe is down also, so take back the .2 and we're back at -.6
-.6 of 15.95 = -.10 CENTS ON THEI FUND.
IT SEEMS TO BE PRETTY CLOSE, BUT OF COURSE IT ONLY A WAG.
Let me give you my mrthod for calculating the I fund.
First look at the currencies. (I use advfn.com under FOREX tab). The EURO has the most weight, pound and Yen. I avg them. So say the EURO is .7 green
Now look at the FTSE (UKX), say its -.7 red.
In this case it would avg out to 0.0.
now look at nikkei and other euro stocks. if they have a negative slant sau nikkei -.5 and euro stock about -.5 then I use a lighter weight for these nd my guess would be the I fund -.2 .
You just can't use the EFA. It's usually way off.
As of right now FTSE is -1.4% and the euro is +.8 so we're at -.6
Nikkei was up a little and yen is stronger so I would give maybe +.2 which makes us now at -.4. The rest of europe is down also, so take back the .2 and we're back at -.6
-.6 of 15.95 = -.10 CENTS ON THEI FUND.
IT SEEMS TO BE PRETTY CLOSE, BUT OF COURSE IT ONLY A WAG.
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clester wrote:
Instead, I think what is happening is some kind of time lag, or pehaps other short-term adjustments that affect how the two match up over time scales of days. But over weeks or months, the two match up nearly perfectly.
Dave
clester wrote:
Clester, I don't think this is correct. I ran a correlation betwenthe I fund and EAFE index for all available data (june 2003 to present). The correlation is 99.6% (see attached file). What this tells me is that the I fund and EAFE do track nearly perfectly over this time frame without considering any correction for currency values. If currency fluctuations were at play, I'd expect a poorer correlation. It looks to me like the EAFE and the I fund both account for currency values in the same manner.
Instead, I think what is happening is some kind of time lag, or pehaps other short-term adjustments that affect how the two match up over time scales of days. But over weeks or months, the two match up nearly perfectly.
Dave
clester
Well-known member
imported post
Just look how many time the EFA is off from what the I fund actually moves. Lots of time the EFA is +.5 and the I fund will be -0.5 cents. How can they be correlated? I'd say they're off 80% of the time. You have to use the actual EAFE fund price and you can't track that during the day. Its only posted once a day at about 7pm. (http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html)
What I'm saying is that if you want to get a gage on the I fund during the day you have to something other than EFA ticker or any other ticker. They are not accurate on a daily basis.
Just look how many time the EFA is off from what the I fund actually moves. Lots of time the EFA is +.5 and the I fund will be -0.5 cents. How can they be correlated? I'd say they're off 80% of the time. You have to use the actual EAFE fund price and you can't track that during the day. Its only posted once a day at about 7pm. (http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html)
What I'm saying is that if you want to get a gage on the I fund during the day you have to something other than EFA ticker or any other ticker. They are not accurate on a daily basis.
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