OBGibby's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

ha! obgibby your reputation number is 1913, the same year the federal reserve was incorporated. that is not good. you are going to screw us all with inflation and usury for the next 100 years until we're bankrupt, aren't you? the writing is on the wall, you evil mastermind.

 

[OBGibby]

IFT effective close of business today. Moved to 35%C, 35%S and 20% I.

 

[gronk007]

...and the other 10%?

 

[OBGibby]

...and the other 10%?

The other 10 percent went to G. Good catch.

 

[OBGibby]

1999? Now THAT Was A Bubble - Joe Fahmy, The Next Big Move

 

[OBGibby]

This should set Birtchtree and Jimmy Joe's hearts aflutter...

S&P triple top could actually be bullish - Bill DeShurko, MartketWatch

""Some market technicians have been pointing out a "triple top" on the S&P 500 as a warning sign that the rally could have peaked and be over. Pulling back and looking at a longer-term picture gives, in my opinion, a different and more bullish perspective....."

 

[JimmyJoe]

This should set Birtchtree and Jimmy Joe's hearts aflutter...

S&P triple top could actually be bullish - Bill DeShurko, MartketWatch

""Some market technicians have been pointing out a "triple top" on the S&P 500 as a warning sign that the rally could have peaked and be over. Pulling back and looking at a longer-term picture gives, in my opinion, a different and more bullish perspective....."

"The long and winding road" to the door, of the way, to the top, S&P 2000, year 2015. Even then, there's more.

 

[OBGibby]

Am I Too Bullish? - Bloomberg, Barry Ritholtz

".....problem with too much cash is the investor's ability to re-enter the markets. A broad contingent of cash-heavy investors never seems to be able to get back into a properly balanced portfolio. To quote Peter Lynch, "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” That quote succinctly describes the circumstances for many since the March 2009 lows....."

 

[Birchtree]

A good read for sure. "Tops are gradual processes that evolve over a 6-18 month period." Probably due sometime in 2020.

 

[OBGibby]

Saving Far Too Much? Rethinking Retirement Income - Kelly Greene, WSJ

 

[OBGibby]

The Bull Market Could Last Several More Years - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco

 

[OBGibby]

IFT effective COB today: 25% G 25% C 25% S 25% I

 

[OBGibby]

Who Speaks For Long-Neglected Middle Class? - Victor Davis Hanson, IBD

 

[OBGibby]

The Stock Market's Poised to Drift Higher - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capital

 

[OBGibby]

Jeremy Siegel's bullish market call for 2014 - CNBC

The Dow Jones Industrial Average could possibly soar over 21,000 next year, stock market bull Jeremy Siegel said Tuesday.

"One thing we know is that bull markets usually don't stop at fair market value. They often overshoot it," the Wharton School finance professor said. "Now, how much is certainly a matter of question, just like bear markets overshoot on the downside."

 

[OBGibby]

Gold Declines on Way to Worst Year Since 1981 - Bloomberg, Joe Richter

Maybe they will finally stop running the incessant "BUY GOLD NOW!" commercials...

 

[OBGibby]

The Most Underappreciated Bullish Evidence - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco

".....Over the last six months, many have stated “stocks are in a bubble”.....In isolation, if you were told the stock market made no progress over a 13-year period that does not sound like a bubble. In fact, it sounds like a period of massive underperformance....."

 

[coolhand]

The Most Underappreciated Bullish Evidence - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco

".....Over the last six months, many have stated “stocks are in a bubble”.....In isolation, if you were told the stock market made no progress over a 13-year period that does not sound like a bubble. In fact, it sounds like a period of massive underperformance....."

This is one of the reasons I don't buy that we're in a bubble myself. I do wonder though, if the stock market is indeed slated for one. If so, these things can take years to play out. The term "irrational exuberance" was uttered by The Maestro (Alan Greenspan) on Dec. 5th, 1996, several years before the bubble popped.

 

[OBGibby]

Goals for 2013: Positive return and will be happy to get 10-12% again. Want to break through the $250K level with the balance. If I can do both I'm be happy and anything more will be a bonus.

Currently 40% in equities, with 20% in bonds and 40% in G. Still looking to incrementally get back to a larger exposure in equities. Will likely add 5-10% in January to C/S/I.

2013 wasn't spectacular compared to the 400+ ahead of me on the AutoTracker. However, I did make my goal of 10-12% gain for the year. I also broke through the $250K balance level so I'm pleased with that. Am I disappointed that I left a lot on the table in terms of gain as I wasn't fully invested throughout the year - sure, who wouldn't be? But all in all, a successful year. I hope to have similar results this year.

 

[OBGibby]

View attachment 26497

My 2013 AutoTracker results​