OBGibby's Account Talk

[OBGibby]

Eddy Elfenbein (Crossing Wall Street): When enough people hope for the apocalypse, safe havens become very risky, and risky assets become very safe.

 

[OBGibby]

13 Technical Signs That Preceded Major Tops - J.C. Parets, All Star Charts

"....With that, here are Mark Arbeter’s technical signs to watch for next year:
1. Major topping pattern such as a head-and-shoulders or double top that takes many months to trace out. Not seen yet.
2. Increase in price volatility, both on the upside and downside. This would be part of the topping formation. Not seen yet....."

 

[Birchtree]

I always like it when you come around with these excellent reads - I suspect the market explodes upward in 2014 beyond belief - there is just so much power availabe and I'll try and do my share to help with progress. There are still too many lonely wall flowers in need of a home and I see it as my responsibility to own them and give them shelter.

 

[OBGibby]

I always like it when you come around with these excellent reads - I suspect the market explodes upward in 2014 beyond belief - there is just so much power availabe and I'll try and do my share to help with progress. There are still too many lonely wall flowers in need of a home and I see it as my responsibility to own them and give them shelter.

Just now reading J.P. Morgan's take on 2014 - one is three chance S&P500 hits 30% again.

 

[OBGibby]

S&P 500 has 1-in-3 chance of rising 30% in 2014: J.P. Morgan’s Thomas Lee - The Tell, The Markets News and Analysis Blog/MarketWatch

".....Lee based his predictions on the idea that the current bull market, now about to enter its sixth year, is acting like a “classic” secular bull market — where investor sentiment is the primary driver of prices......“Equities may be one of your best real-return vehicles in 2014 and its possible for markets to post big 2-year gains,” Lee said....."

 

[OBGibby]

2014 TSP GOALS:
11% Gain
Little number on the left rolls over to three

 

[OBGibby]

View attachment 26503

Aiming for $1 million at retirement in 2024 (not looking so good so far!)

 

[OBGibby]

5 2014 Questions for Stock Market Bears - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capital

 

[OBGibby]

According to my tsp.gov online account, my 'Personal Rate of Return' for the twelve months ending December 31, 2013, was up 14.45%.

Personal Rate of Return
2009 +29.86%
2010 +13.31%
2011 - 0.74%
2012 +11.42%
2013 +14.45%

January 31, 2013 +8.20%
February 28, 2013 +4.99%
March 31, 2013 +7.44%
April 30, 2013 +9.42%
May 31, 2013 +14.17%
June 30, 2013 +8.59%
July 31, 2013 +11.89%
August 31, 2013 +10.22%
September 30, 2013 +11.32%
October 31, 2013 +12.43%
November 30, 2013 +12.76%
December 31, 2013 +14.45%

AUTOTRACKER FOR 2012: +11.97%
AUTOTRACKER FOR 2013: +14.59%

 

[nasa1974]

Nice numbers. Hope 2014 is even better.

 

[OBGibby]

You Need to Plan For Next Bear Market - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capital

".....2014: Some Mild Deterioration In early January 2014, the observable evidence, which is based on supply and demand, continues to call for an investment allocation with exposure to growth-oriented stocks. Therefore, until the evidence shifts meaningfully, we continue to hold our positions in U.S. equities (VTI), technology (QQQ), financials (XLF), energy (XLE), small caps (IWM), and global stocks (VT). Based on some mild deterioration in the market’s risk profile, by rule, we did take a very small incremental step to reduce our exposure to stocks Friday, which increased our money market balances....."

 

[OBGibby]

JEFF SAUT, Business Insider: I Don't Buy The Profit Margin Compression Argument, I Think The S&P 500 Can Go To 2,000

".....As we begin 2014, I think the rally extends without much of a pullback. In fact, my sense is we could travel into the 1900 – 2000 zone on the SPX before succumbing to any meaningful correction....."

 

[OBGibby]

Number of TSP Millionaires up 195% - Ralph Smith, FedSmith.com

".....there were 1,656 TSP millionaires as of December 2, 2013....."
".....As of November 2013, the average TSP balance for FERS employees was $103,996....."
Here is the current breakdown of TSP balances by amount:
•Under $50,000: 2,798,820
•$50,000 – $249,999: 1,424,190
•$250,000 – $499,999: 335,638
•$500,000 – $749,999: 71,272
•$750,000 – $999,999: 11,063

 

[Birchtree]

"Unsurprisingly, most investors remain underinvested in equities. Saut thinks it's possible we go straight up without a meaningful sell off for a while." Now that would be very pleasant indeed.

 

[OBGibby]

Stocks: Be Prepared, But Not Time To Overreact - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capital

 

[OBGibby]

"Chris Ciovacco - Best 2014 Advice - stop trying to figure out what's going to happen (highly uncertain); focus on what is happening (certain) & adjust."

 

[OBGibby]

Watched "To Catch a Trader" by Frontline on PBS. Good piece on insider trading by hedge funds, and in particular SAC Capital. You can watch it free on the PBS website, link below.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/to-catch-a-trader/

 

[OBGibby]

1987 Stock Market Crash - If It Happens Again, Will You Be Ready?

January 18, 2014 - Ciovacco Capital Management [video=youtube;FU-vM9O_yUM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FU-vM9O_yUM[/video]

 

[Birchtree]

I was unfortunate enough to participate in that crash - I took the next day off from work and kept my thumbs on the trigger to cut and run. But I decided to ride the crash and ended up glad I did - I learned a great deal from that episode.

 

[99percent]

I was unfortunate enough to participate in that crash - I took the next day off from work and kept my thumbs on the trigger to cut and run. But I decided to ride the crash and ended up glad I did - I learned a great deal from that episode.

Now that's just good stuff right there. Thanks for sharing your experience.