nasa1974's Account Talk

Rough day today.:( Majority still thinks that there is some more bull left in this month so I guess I will play this hand a little longer.:blink: Half way through the month with a plus 6% so I guess I can gamble a little bit more.:worried: Good Luck to everyone in the pool and those sitting carefully on the lilly pads waiting to jump in. Timing is everything!! :laugh:
 
Nice finish to the day. Market cannot make up its mind if it is a Bull or Bear. Sorry Birch but I have to hedge towards Bear but hoping for a Bull. :nuts: Should have made up half of what I lost yesterday. April has been good to me so far. :D
 
No new news from the FRTIB. :suspicious: Go figure. If April contiues this bull run, guess who will be patting themselves on the back.:confused:

I must admit I have been a bit surprised this week on how the market has rallied. Fingers crossed for today and hope next week continues to rise up the charts. Good luck everyone.
 
No new news from the FRTIB. :suspicious: Go figure. If April contiues this bull run, guess who will be patting themselves on the back.:confused:

I must admit I have been a bit surprised this week on how the market has rallied. Fingers crossed for today and hope next week continues to rise up the charts. Good luck everyone.

Oh hopeful one, the market is nearly 30% above the YTD Lows. How much
further do you think it will go up, before something or someone causes the
market to take a crap. In other words, there may come a time when you
might consider selling into this rally. Only you can decide. I'm not saying
you should bail, but a one day -5% loss can quickly kill your hopes.
Be careful young Jedi, but get all you can ! I'm happy for you ! ;)
 
Oh hopeful one, the market is nearly 30% above the YTD Lows. How much
further do you think it will go up, before something or someone causes the
market to take a crap. In other words, there may come a time when you
might consider selling into this rally. Only you can decide. I'm not saying
you should bail, but a one day -5% loss can quickly kill your hopes.
Be careful young Jedi, but get all you can ! I'm happy for you !


SB, My Jedi Master. I have been rolling the dice with my fingeres crossed thats for sure. Reading many opinions on this board from those that are much smarter than me. It just appears that there is more positive influence in the Force. It has been interesting to watch the market bounce around all day and finally make up its mind between 3:30 and 4. All of this action is moving with very little positive information. So for right now I am willing to gamble a little. :D This year my worst day was -3.88 and my best day was +4.29. My finger is hovering over the mouse just incase. :toung: Went back and looked at optionsX week for the year and we have had more positive days than negative days. Big swings, but I think with the mild good news floating around next week might add a little more to the account. :blink: Running head long into danger with the light saber glowing bright. :cool:
 
Oh hopeful one, the market is nearly 30% above the YTD Lows. How much
further do you think it will go up, before something or someone causes the
market to take a crap. In other words, there may come a time when you
might consider selling into this rally. Only you can decide. I'm not saying
you should bail, but a one day -5% loss can quickly kill your hopes.
Be careful young Jedi, but get all you can ! I'm happy for you !

SB, My Jedi Master. I have been rolling the dice with my fingeres crossed thats for sure. Reading many opinions on this board from those that are much smarter than me. It just appears that there is more positive influence in the Force. It has been interesting to watch the market bounce around all day and finally make up its mind between 3:30 and 4. All of this action is moving with very little positive information. So for right now I am willing to gamble a little. This year my worst day was -3.88 and my best day was +4.29. My finger is hovering over the mouse just incase. Went back and looked at optionsX week for the year and we have had more positive days than negative days. Big swings, but I think with the mild good news floating around next week might add a little more to the account. Running head long into danger with the light saber glowing bright.
A quick drive-by to say thanks to you both for your entertaining ways!

From just another Ewok .... :toung:
 
It's a day late but I have been a little busy with the nice weather and work. GO CAVS!! :D:D
 
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Tough times. There is so much conflicting information out there it is getting difficult to decide where your money should be.:confused::confused:

Stay in or get out and sit in G. April has been good to me so far and there is another 8 months to increase my TSP account. So maybe I may just play it safe. Now do I play the <1% game or just sit back and relax????????:blink:

Stay tuned and see what I do before noon. :laugh:
 
Well I have decided to stay put. The market is a minus 3-4% at 11:55. If I go back to G I stand to have a negative 2-3% day easy. Either way (run or cut bait) I loose for the day. Might as well take a chance. In my real world TSP I am a +7% for the month. Playing a hunch and sitting tight. :worried:
 
You can find good or bad news anywhere if you look hard enough. Interesting stats though.
This is from:

Seeking Alpha.com
http://seekingalpha.com/article/131816-s-p-500-six-week-winning-streaks?source=yahoo
S&P 500 Six-Week Winning Streaks

by: Bespoke Investment Group April 20, 2009

The S&P 500 closed on a 6-week winning streak last Friday for a gain of 27.25% over the period. Below we highlight prior 6-week winning streaks that saw gains of more than 10% since 1927. As shown, the current period is the 3rd strongest 6-week winning streak on record. The average change in week 7 following the periods shown below has been 0.55%, while the average change over the next 6 weeks has been 3.14%. The average change in week 7 following all 6-week winning streaks has been 0.23%, which is still better than the average change of 0.12% for all 1-week periods. This week has started out on a sour note, so the market is already facing an uphill battle to close the week higher. The odds slightly favor the bulls based on historical trading patterns, however.
saupload_spx.png
 
Seeking Alpha.com
http://seekingalpha.com/article/131801-twin-charts-separated-at-birth?source=yahoo

Twin Charts Separated at Birth

by: Babak April 20, 2009




Take a look at these two charts. They are both of the S&P 500 Index (SPX), they both span roughly the exact same time period, from the start of the year to mid April. But only one of them shows the current market. Which one is it?
And what time period is the other one showing?

Hey, no cheating!
Take a careful look at both and notice the uncanny similarities. They both top in early January and then trend down until the inflection point in early March. And then there’s a more or less orderly march upwards:

Have you made up your mind? Give up?
The bottom one is showing the current market. That was the easy one. What about the other?
The first chart is from 2003, showing the bear market in its last throes. Of course, as you know, from then on, the S&P 500 continued to climb higher and higher. Similar to today’s market, the technical pattern appeared to be a rising wedge. But this only threw off the bears even more as they waited and waited for the eventual pullback that never really came (well, until after 6 years that is
saupload_icon_wink.png
).
Honestly I have no idea what significance this has, if any, for the market right now but I’ve never seen this much synchronicity between two exact time periods.
 
Here you go folks. Your money at work.

After reading this article, I would like to see who agrees with Mr. Long.

Also go to the website and add your comments if you are so inclinded. :D




GovernmentExecutive.com

http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=42529&dcn=todaysnews

TSP board endorses Roth IRA option for enrollees
By Alex M. Parker aparker@govexec.com April 20, 2009

The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board on Monday officially endorsed a proposal to give Thrift Savings Plan participants the option to invest in a Roth Individual Retirement Account, but did not green light a move that would allow the TSP to create additional investment funds.
During its monthly meeting, the board also voted in favor of a provision that would allow the spouses of deceased federal employees to continue managing their funds in the TSP instead of requiring them to withdraw those funds 60 days after their spouse passed away and reinvesting them elsewhere.
The House passed legislation (H.R. 1256) on April 2 that contained provisions that would create a Roth IRA account option for TSP participants and a mutual fund window in the plan that would allow enrollees to invest in more than 13,000 mutual funds in addition to the plan's core offerings. Roth accounts -- which allow participants to invest after-tax into their retirement accounts so it can be withdrawn later without taxes -- now are offered by many retirement plans.
The Senate has yet to take up legislation on either issue, and neither chamber has introduced bills regarding spousal accounts.
Of the four board members present, two supported allowing mutual fund offerings to enrollees, while two opposed the idea.
Opponents claimed it would complicate the TSP needlessly, and allow politics into the process.
"This would totally, radically alter a plan that has been in place since 1986," said board member Alejandro Sanchez. In a survey of TSP members, only 10 percent said they would enroll in the mutual fund offering if it meant paying an estimated $100 fee, according to Sanchez.
The board said because only a percentage of the overall federal workforce likely would participate, those who did choose to use the mutual fund window should pay for its implementation. The $100 fee they asked respondents about was a hypothetical annual fee, but that figure could be lower.
Supporters of a mutual fund option said it would remove political pressure from the process. By allowing TSP members to choose mutual funds for themselves, there would be no need to lobby the investment board to include a particular fund in its core programs, argued Tom Trabucco, director of external affairs.
"I see it as the equivalent of a pressure-cooker release valve," said Pamela Jeanne Moran, deputy director of external affairs.
Board member Gordon Whiting said the plan did not go far enough, and TSP members should be allowed to invest in individual securities as well as mutual funds.
Executive Director Greg Long opposed broader investments because he said he did not want to encourage "intraday trading" for retirement programs.
As for the Roth IRA account option, Long predicted the plan would be a "game-changer" for younger government employees -- especially those in the military -- who pay little in taxes now. While the board passed the proposal, it faced questions from some members who balked at the prospect of providing advice to TSP members considering how to invest their retirement funds.
Trabucco said the Employee Thrift Advisory Council would discuss the issues on Wednesday, before Congress takes them up again.
 
officially endorsed a proposal to give Thrift Savings Plan participants the option to invest in a Roth Individual Retirement Account

I think that's wonderful - a ROTH is an excellent investment

voted in favor of a provision that would allow the spouses of deceased federal employees to continue managing their funds in the TSP instead of requiring them to withdraw those funds 60 days after their spouse passed away and reinvesting them elsewhere.

This was actually shocking to me. I had always thought my wife would be able to manage the TSP after my death. The TSP is designed for retirement years - so the spouse should only be given the option to withdraw if the money is needed and then should be given the opportunity to withdraw at minimal payments over a much longer duration.

The House passed legislation (H.R. 1256) on April 2 that contained provisions that would create a Roth IRA account option for TSP participants and a mutual fund window in the plan that would allow enrollees to invest in more than 13,000 mutual funds in addition to the plan's core offerings.

If this is true - and I now have 13,000 Mutual Funds to invest in then I would be highly likely to roll over other accounts into the TSP.


In a survey of TSP members, only 10 percent said they would enroll in the mutual fund offering if it meant paying an estimated $100 fee, according to Sanchez. I bet it would be way less than 10% and by far most would stick with the 5.

The board said because only a percentage of the overall federal workforce likely would participate, those who did choose to use the mutual fund window should pay for its implementation. The $100 fee they asked respondents about was a hypothetical annual fee, but that figure could be lower.In comparison to other fees - especially with the amount of money many would be using - I'd be thrilled with $100 dollars.

Executive Director Greg Long opposed broader investments because he said he did not want to encourage "intraday trading" for retirement programs.

I'd say that would be a very high probability and on the whole the day traders would be the ones most drawn to these investments. But that should in NO WAY prevent this from happening and in all sincerity it in no way takes from the UNDERLYING FOUNDATION.

The UNDERLYING FOUNDATION - is a far greater variety of investments for all Federal Employees to utilize year after year and month after month. It's a proven fact that some funds will prosper when the 5 are not doing anything or majorly losing. SO THE FOCUS SHOULD ALWAYS BE - A GREATER VARIETY OF INVESTMENTS - AS EVERYONE CAN WIN NO MATTER HOW C, S, AND I ARE DOING.

As for the Roth IRA account option, Long predicted the plan would be a "game-changer" for younger government employees -- especially those in the military -- who pay little in taxes now.

This is probably true - no matter who you include - but I would not single out the Military. I would say the younger crowd are more likely to believe they can 'out smart the system' and that is simply a part of life. Again this does nothing to take from the UNDERLYING FOUNDATION of having a greater variety of investment funds - by which everyone could win.

I think it would be a very tough position to be on that Board. They have to think - what would happen? what could happen? what is truely in the best interests of Long Term Retirement Investments and how can we most solidly instill a plan that is used for the best and minimize potiential abuse.

The last thing they want is millions of youth playing a losing game and ending up with nothing.

So I guess my opinion of Mr. Long is that he is seriously concerned about the downside of THE GREATEST POSSIBLE PLAN I could imagine. Unfortunately there is always the potiential risk of others failing to invest properly - but over time we can have the potiential to become better investors.
 
I'm still not pleased on a personal basis - I would never put mutual funds in a Roth IRA. They are too slow to make their payments once a year. A stock pays cash every three months and that dividend reinvestment on a disciplined basis provides growth. The type of down trodden market we are currently in is just perfecto for dividend reinvestments - it works like a charm. Using their income to buy even more shares to produce even more income. It's a wonderful cycle.
 
'Executive Director Greg Long opposed broader investments because he said he did not want to encourage "intraday trading" for retirement programs.'

What an incredibly large buffoon!
 
Their timing couldn't have been any worse if they tried, when they went ahead and rammed IFT restrictions down our throats!

I think it would be a very tough position to be on that Board. They have to think - what would happen? what could happen? what is truely in the best interests of Long Term Retirement Investments and how can we most solidly instill a plan that is used for the best and minimize potiential abuse.

The last thing they want is millions of youth playing a losing game and ending up with nothing.

So I guess my opinion of Mr. Long is that he is seriously concerned about the downside of THE GREATEST POSSIBLE PLAN I could imagine. Unfortunately there is always the potiential risk of others failing to invest properly - but over time we can have the potiential to become better investors.
 
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