nasa1974's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

Well the guessing game has begun.:worried: I have started my <1% experiment and have to make my decissions based on the market before the noon cut off time.:toung: So today, I rounded up FCSI and moved some out of G. Hoping we do not see an Obama rally after he takes office. It will throw the whole thing out of kilter. I will not be posting my changes to the tracker for now because I think it will be confusing. If I make a large move I will post that however. Posting to the tracker subject to change if the administrators have different ideas. Their call. Wish me luck, I am going to need it, I am going in.....................

 

[Steadygain]

I have started my <1% experiment...

Nasa1974,
No one knows how things will play out...whether we will have the V Formation...or whether we'll roll on the bottom for awhile.

I'd be really interested in learning this <1% method sometime this summer if we roll on the bottom. Would like to start off mainly in G with gradual increases in C/S/I until fully invested.

Would that take 2 or 3 months??

 

[nasa1974]

Nasa1974,

Would that take 2 or 3 months??

Steady, my friend, that is the $64,000.00 question. The only thing for sure with the <1% process is that it will be unpredictable. There are many variables that can make this kind of stratagy frustrating. The noon cut off time and guessing if the market will rise or fall before market closure are only two. I ran some tests with actual data and it shows that it can be profitable, but I knew the up and down days. Now I have to test in real time and we will see if I can guess correctly. I will share my information with the group, good or bad, after testing this for a few weeks. Keep the faith.

 

[nasa1974]

So much for the Obama bounce.:nuts: I think most of us should have known better.

Anyway! Tuesday really hurt, Wednesday recovered 2/3 back from Tuesday and now today looks like we are going to see red. Started playing the <1% game this week and did pick up some nices shares Tuesday but continuing to work out the data I found an error in my calculations. With the market dropping, I will lose money if I stay or jump back to the lilly pad. So I am going to make a <1% move and pick up some more shares and hope for a bounce tomorrow. Then spend the weekend reworking my numbers. The <1% works in gaining shares I just have to work out the correct ratios. DANG!!!

Also seems to be some concern about Barclays. I will spend some time looking into this also. MMMMMM!!!!!! Something to think about, G is totally protected but FCSI are at risk if there really are problems with BGI.

OUTA HERE!! Later

 

[nasa1974]

Morning,

Well let's hope this week has more of an up side than last week. Regardless I plan on making a move back towards G. I reevaluated my data on the <1% process but have not completed all of my calculations. Found a major error last week after I moved into the game. I will post my information as soon as I can.

Good Luck to all this week.

 

[nasa1974]

Here is some interesting information on Barclays. As far as I know the banking and investment sectors are seperate of each other. However if the bank fails I would have to believe that the invest portion would have problems as well. Here is the link to the British website: http://www.ft.com/home/us

 

[luv2read]

Yes the 2 are separate, but Barclays plays it's own game. After all, it has that guaranteed influx of funds from US every 2 weeks.

 

[nasa1974]

Yes the 2 are separate, but Barclays plays it's own game. After all, it has that guaranteed influx of funds from US every 2 weeks.

L2R,

Welcome back.

 

[nasa1974]

Inside watching the snow fly. At least 8 new inches on the ground.

Made my 5th move this month now sitting at 65,5,10,10,10 G,F,C,S,I. The two previous moves where less than 1 percents and I didn't post to the IFT Tracker.
I will post my information on the <1% data I have been playing with tonight. I see that some of the MB folks have been using this stratagy already.

Let's hope this rally train continues through tomorrow at least.

Good Luck to all.

 

[nasa1974]

Sorry, I didn't post my data last night. The snow kept me busy all day (unofficially 41"+ for January already) and I was too tired to try and focus on numbers. I have noticed another interesting data point so I want to explore it further. I will really try to post my information this weekend.

I have to decide how I want to start February. With my current percentages or on the lilly pad. Most of the websites and videos are calling for a pullback today. Makes sense that the market needs to test resistence. Anyway, hedging towards 100% G COB today.

More luck than skill this month. I recovered about 2/3 of my losses for the month. Going to be a long investment year.

 

[JTH]

More luck than skill this month. I recovered about 2/3 of my losses for the month. Going to be a long investment year.

Good on ya, I've recovered about 1/2 myself and consider myself fortunate.

 

[KevinD]

I had gained some back...

 

[dannyboy]

Hey All,

It is kind of unusual that I see all these regular members of 'the TSPTALK board' stating that they are making all those changes on the TSPTALK mb. I Take it back, maybe it's me? I stay away from that idealology. I have just honestly stated what I did and why, and what I got back.
Well, I have had an alright experience with my fund settings at G,F,C,S,I : 50%, 41%,3%, 3%, 3%. I have gotten almost consistent returns of over $100.00 a month. The one exception to that was when the DOW, etc was way down (several triple digit drop) in a day. Since then, my funds have been making 100's instead of losing 1000's. When I go 100% - G I can only make a dozen or so dollars per month. I can get real upset if I take this too seriously. I've got to remember, Many mb people can give advice, but it's always you who suffers or gains?
Away's back, many moons, I just kept getting my funds hammered, hoping for a great rise on advice taken from the "buy and hold crew", so I lost $20,k+ in 2008. As the Birch says, "You've got to learn, buy burning and churning?".

 

[wv-girl]

Hey All,

It is kind of unusual that I see all these regular members of 'the TSPTALK board' stating that they are making all those changes on the TSPTALK mb. I Take it back, maybe it's me? I stay away from that idealology. I have just honestly stated what I did and why, and what I got back.

What are you referring to?

 

[dannyboy]

What are you referring to?

Hey WV,
It's always good to hear from others, I do appreciate your interest in my replies? If I give a lot of thought as to how much I've lost by following the advice thrown out on these mb's, I can become upset (trying to keep it clean there). I seem to just be in a funk. Job, Work calling, gotta go.

 

[nasa1974]

Just checked the FRTIB website and the December meeting minutes are now posted. Here is the link: http://www.frtib.gov/pdf/minutes/2008Dec.pdf

I have not read the minutes yet. If I see something interesting I will post it.

Stock market gives and the market taketh away. Gave back half yesterday from Wednesday. Oh Well!!

 

[nasa1974]

OK! I just read the December meeting minutes. Nothing special! So why did it take so long to post??? Sure would be nice if the current administration replaces all of them.

Here is an interesting quote from Ms Wilder: "In November, the Plan balance fell below $200 billion from its high in May of $234 billion. Given the steep declines in the equity markets, this drop was not unexpected, but it is certainly not the way the Agency would like to see things go." Gee I wonder why??? Let's see, May was the month they restricted us to 2 IFT's. I wonder if we still had unlimited IFT's if the Plan losses would have been less. I know it would have made a difference in my account. Let's assume that half of the 3.9M participants actually move their money around on a monthly basis and pay attention to what is happening. I know a big assumption. And on average all participants lost $20,000.00 since May. Now lets continue to assume that with unlimited IFT's we only lost $10,000.00 each instead of $20,000.00. That would have kept almost $19B in the plan. MMMMMMM!!!!!

 

[nasa1974]

Well I went 100% G. I wanted to position myself better for February. Not feeling any warm fuzzies.

Still working on the <1% information. I hope to post data this weekend.

 

[dannyboy]

Hey WV,
It's always good to hear from others, I do appreciate your interest in my replies? If I give a lot of thought as to how much I've lost by following the advice thrown out on these mb's, I can become upset (trying to keep it clean there). I seem to just be in a funk. Job, Work calling, gotta go.

What I meant to say, without doing any back-checking of facts before sticking my foot in my mouth, again , is that it seemed to me with the few dash-in, dash-out that I do is that the same members seem to keep posting new IFT distribution to their funds several times within a week. This would naturally be illegal IFT moves for TSP and this bothers me. Dannyboy is honest, I've only made 2 changes this month and I put them into messages.
I don't like to hold any negativity inside of me so I thought I'd mention it, besides, I am doing most everything I can to get myself past that darn "TSP starter" tag and make my move to be become the next "TSP guru. :laugh:

 

[CountryBoy]

What I meant to say, without doing any back-checking of facts before sticking my foot in my mouth, again , is that it seemed to me with the few dash-in, dash-out that I do is that the same members seem to keep posting new IFT distribution to their funds several times within a week. This would naturally be illegal IFT moves for TSP and this bothers me. Dannyboy is honest, I've only made 2 changes this month and I put them into messages.
I don't like to hold any negativity inside of me so I thought I'd mention it, besides, I am doing most everything I can to get myself past that darn "TSP starter" tag and make my move to be become the next "TSP guru. :laugh:

Well Dannyboy, CountryBoy says you should read up on the <1% move that Squalebear and others are using. That must be what you're seeing.

CB