MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Waiting for AAPL to fill the gap, which would be a drop to ~562. Then maybe the market can move higher. That, and the jobs number tomorrow. Talk about anti-climatic. Sheesh. All this hand wringing. 
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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
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MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
How Low Can Apple Go? / CNN Money
"... Apple's revenues grew nearly twice as fast as Amazon's last year. But Apple's stock is trading this week at less than 14.3 times earning. If it were trading, as Amazon does, at 190 times earnings, it would selling for more than $7,800 a share. ..."
As I've said before, as AAPL goes, so goes the market.
"... Apple's revenues grew nearly twice as fast as Amazon's last year. But Apple's stock is trading this week at less than 14.3 times earning. If it were trading, as Amazon does, at 190 times earnings, it would selling for more than $7,800 a share. ..."
As I've said before, as AAPL goes, so goes the market.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Short term, with no other factors (US economy, Eurozone Woes, etc) you are probably right; however, a single stock, no matter how important people feel their products are (oh, and how much CNBC hypes it), "controls" the market.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
RMI, it's not that I think their products are "important", and I know the media hypes up a lot of things. It's just that if I had to pick one stock that is the "canary in the coal mine" for the markets, it would undoubtably be AAPL.
As I've always said, if I could just get 1 penny from every person in China, I would be a very wealthy man. Well, AAPL is doing that on a huge scale. The Chinese absolutely clamor for AAPL products. And it doesn't seem to matter what the economy is doing. People still "want" the newest iphone, ipad, and soon to be release AppleTV. It will never end, at least not in my lifetime.
I'm sure someone, somewhere, has done a study on the correlation of AAPL to the stock market. I'd be willing to bet the correlation factor is over 90%.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Glad you brought up the topic of correlation. From my Journal - "Correlation measured on a scale of 0 to 1, where 0 means there is no relationship and 1 means they move together - has risen to 0.38 on Wednesday from 0.12 in early February for stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Additionally, a gauge that investors monitor closely to predict correlation - known as implied correlation - is now at 0.48, having shot up 20% in the past month. To be sure, correlation isn't yet near levels hit last year, when it hit a record of 0.83 four days after the implied figure reached a 14-year high. Some investors say it's unlikely thatn stocks will approach that degree of correlation this year. Still, stock pickers are worried about what lies ahead. Any edge they have by making wagers based on analyzing balance sheets and revenue forecasts is dulled when global events send stocks up or down together." It's time for the ECB to act once again. Damn Socialists.
Sign_Stealer
New member
The Facebook IPO is on or around May 18. I think there's a good chance that investors sell stock, especially tech stocks, to raise money to play the IPO. I think near-term AAPL might be very vulnerable because of this. Once we get to June perhaps a lot of the Facebook frenzy will be over and that stock settles and people move back into AAPL. Just my opinion.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Well, just for the heck of it, I looked up the correlation factors for AAPL and "the markets". It's not nearly as strong as I thought.
For the Nasdaq, the correlation factor is significant (as you would expect); 0.72.
For the S&P 500, the correlation factor is weak; 0.52.
The correlation was measured over the last 30 days.
Link to data HERE.
That being said, I still believe that AAPL is "the canary in the coal mine" for the stock market. I read a report recently where the author stated that XOM was the canary, but I beg to differ.
Anyone else have a stock in mind?
For the Nasdaq, the correlation factor is significant (as you would expect); 0.72.
For the S&P 500, the correlation factor is weak; 0.52.
The correlation was measured over the last 30 days.
Link to data HERE.
That being said, I still believe that AAPL is "the canary in the coal mine" for the stock market. I read a report recently where the author stated that XOM was the canary, but I beg to differ.
Anyone else have a stock in mind?
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The S&P has clearly broken below the 50 day EMA, and also below the long-standing upward trend line dating back to Nov 28, 2011.
There's very little doubt that we won't see a sell signal today. The question is... will this be a short term bottom, and the market recovers on Monday? So far this year, it's paid to ride this wild bull all year long, regardless of the dips. The risk of not selling, is that the market continues it's downward ride even further.
Let's see if there's any strength into the close today. That could hold some clues...
Good luck everyone!
There's very little doubt that we won't see a sell signal today. The question is... will this be a short term bottom, and the market recovers on Monday? So far this year, it's paid to ride this wild bull all year long, regardless of the dips. The risk of not selling, is that the market continues it's downward ride even further.
Let's see if there's any strength into the close today. That could hold some clues...
Good luck everyone!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
By the way... Happy Star Wars Day everyone!
May the 4th be with you! :laugh:
May the 4th be with you! :laugh:
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Congratulations to our Atlas crew on another successful launch, taking the AEHF2 into orbit minutes ago...
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Futures down about 150 tonight. Looks like I'll be headed to the lily pad on Monday morning... 
MaStA
Member
Futures down about 150 tonight. Looks like I'll be headed to the lily pad on Monday morning...
At least you will have some gains left still...I'll be headed to negative territory once again. I'm about to throw the towel in on the stock market. I am not positive overall since I started my TSP that's for sure and every move I make in my brokerage account seems to be wrong as well. I make all of the wrong moves time after time and I think I would "make more" by making nothing (or a measly .75% interest rate of a savings account).
Obviously I'm frustrated because I can't get anything to do with stocks correct.
Khotso
Well-known member
Hang in there. I've been there, done that as well. You will improve as you learn. Not that I'm doing great this year (I like to add "yet" to that because I think I will do better as the year progresses). The one thing I've learned is you have to have a goal or goals and a "system" -- and stick to it as best you can. In my view, it doesn't have to be based on detailed TA or lots of indicators. A simple goal is to not lose money -- that tends to make you conservative and possibly miss big runs like I did December through April, but -- on the upside -- you'll avoid some if not most of the dives as well. I get into trouble when I stray off course and make IFTs based on information that isn't part of my normal basic rule set. ... Having said all that, I feel like I should let you know that I'm not killing it, but I'm doing consistently better than I had in the past by either "holding" or making IFTs on a whim or whatever info struck a chord with me. ... One thing you might try is keeping most of your money in one of the Life Strategy funds and playing with only a small percentage of it while you're figuring what works best for you personally. Good luck!
MaStA
Member
Thank you for your input. I think my biggest problem is trying to follow what others are doing too much. Especially at a time like this in the market when things are completely unpredictable regardless of what someone's system is showing. Sometimes I think I should do opposite of what most of the systems are saying to do lol. I see a ton of people buying in today which seems like a good place to buy in after losing several percent over the past few trading days. I'm going to continue riding this out and hopefully regain some of my losses...but most likely I will just lose more until it drags me to the point where I can't take anymore and I will jump to the G fund and the next day will be up 2%. Just my luck...
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
It appears to me that the market is trying to decide which direction it wants to go. There's a lot of turmoil in the markets, but very little upside or downside bias at this point (although if I had to guess, I'd say we're headed in the down direction). I'm going to elect to hold tight to my long positions at this time, and see what the next day or two brings. There's a good possibility that we are in a "oversold" condition, and the likelyhood of a decent rally seems very plausible.
MaStA, the market is one hell of a monster to try to figure out. I recommend trying to leave your emotions out of it (very hard to do, I know), and use every trading opportunity as a learning lesson. Use a journal to keep track of your trades, why you made them, and how you plan to avoid certain mistakes again. Over time, I think you'll become a much better trader, and you'll be amazed at how good you'll become.
Best of luck everyone!
MaStA, the market is one hell of a monster to try to figure out. I recommend trying to leave your emotions out of it (very hard to do, I know), and use every trading opportunity as a learning lesson. Use a journal to keep track of your trades, why you made them, and how you plan to avoid certain mistakes again. Over time, I think you'll become a much better trader, and you'll be amazed at how good you'll become.
Best of luck everyone!
jkenjohnson
Active member
For what it is worth I am doing the same. I'm still on a buy.
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