MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Possibly. But I think his system is based on technicals, which is why I'm surprised.
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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
Possibly. But I think his system is based on technicals, which is why I'm surprised.
sniper
Active member
true. breakout of the 20 range + hammer (although a small one) would be telling me buy.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Excited to see a very nice two day run for the bulls. I've got plenty of my powder dry, and just waiting for the right opportunity to pounce on a few stocks. Here's a short list on my radar:
EHTH
EMN
FAS
GPOR
IDCC
LPX
NRG
STC
THC
VVI
WNR
EHTH
EMN
FAS
GPOR
IDCC
LPX
NRG
STC
THC
VVI
WNR
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Sold KBH @16.70 for a +7.2% gain in 4 trading days. Here's a 1 hour chart that explains the reasons why I sold:
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Bought SPXU @37.15 based on J-Trader's recommendation. And, of course, on the following 60 minute chart pattern...
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Well, I certainly am glad I got out of KBH yesterday. Ouch. Down over 6% as I type.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Good to see the I Fund continue to perform well. See 1 hr chart below. Both the S Fund and C Fund seem to be rolling over to the downside.
Not sure how much longer the I Fund will keep up this strong performance. If the U.S. markets start to get weak in the knees, the rest of the world may buckle as well. Stay tuned...
Not sure how much longer the I Fund will keep up this strong performance. If the U.S. markets start to get weak in the knees, the rest of the world may buckle as well. Stay tuned...
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Well, HELLO beautiful! I see a falling knife that looks like it's looking for a floor to bounce off of.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I love sidestepping the down drafts.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Attempting to capitalize on a short term bounce on AGQ here. I realize it's a falling knife, but the 10 minute chart just looked too tempting.
Notice the nice cup-like basing pattern, and the oversold Stocahstics and MACD crossing up. Looked like it was showing some signs that the bottom was forming, at least for the time being.
Got in right at the crossover at 42.70. It immediately went down to 42.04, which was near my mental stop below 42. Nearly panicked.
The dangerous part will come overnight, because tomorrow it may fall even more. However, I think the downside is pretty limited, compared to the upside. Gonna hang in there...
Good luck!
Notice the nice cup-like basing pattern, and the oversold Stocahstics and MACD crossing up. Looked like it was showing some signs that the bottom was forming, at least for the time being.
Got in right at the crossover at 42.70. It immediately went down to 42.04, which was near my mental stop below 42. Nearly panicked.
The dangerous part will come overnight, because tomorrow it may fall even more. However, I think the downside is pretty limited, compared to the upside. Gonna hang in there...
Good luck!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Couldn't hang any longer with SPXU. Sold at 36.78 for a 1.0% loss.
Cut your losses early, let your winners ride.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Couldn't hang any longer with SPXU. Sold at 36.78 for a 1.0% loss.
Cut your losses early, let your winners ride.
Don't you just love black swans?
I do not regret my decision. It was the correct one.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Here's three obvious reasons to be concerned with the markets (S&P 500):
1. Triple top formation in Sept / Oct with Stocahstics and MACD both sloping lower
2. Bounce back came in Nov, but the high @ 1448 could not break the lowest level of the triple top
3. With the failure of the triple top, we now have the Stochastics, RSI, and MACD crossing to the downside
This certainly has all the signs of at least a short term pull back in the markets. Unless something changes very soon (budget deal?), this is beginning to look very ominous. My system remains long I Fund, but is beginning to show some weakness.
Good luck everyone!
1. Triple top formation in Sept / Oct with Stocahstics and MACD both sloping lower
2. Bounce back came in Nov, but the high @ 1448 could not break the lowest level of the triple top
3. With the failure of the triple top, we now have the Stochastics, RSI, and MACD crossing to the downside
This certainly has all the signs of at least a short term pull back in the markets. Unless something changes very soon (budget deal?), this is beginning to look very ominous. My system remains long I Fund, but is beginning to show some weakness.
Good luck everyone!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
My system is on the cusp of a sell signal. If we have a strong day down, it would likely trigger a move out of equities. We may get a short term bounce here, but I'm not expecting a huge up day any time soon. A budget deal is looking DOA, so we may skid down until this issue is resolved in early January (hopefully).
Good luck everyone!
Good luck everyone!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Good morning. I used my 2nd IFT to move 100% to the F Fund. Normally I would go to the G Fund, but I think this may be a short term move, and AGG is looking pretty strong right now. Also holding some fairly healthy positions in TZA and SQQQ in some of my other retirement accounts, which have done well.
My guess is that we will go "over the fiscal cliff", and then the politicians will come in and pretend to be saviors, and come to an agreement. It always looks better politically if you've "cut taxes" instead of "raising taxes", even though the end result is exactly the same. Buffoons.
My guess is that we will go "over the fiscal cliff", and then the politicians will come in and pretend to be saviors, and come to an agreement. It always looks better politically if you've "cut taxes" instead of "raising taxes", even though the end result is exactly the same. Buffoons.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
When you compare $SPX to $VIX, you get the following chart:
This shows the extreme value on Friday of 61.69, which was WAY below the lower Bollinger Band. In order for things to come to equilibreum, either the $SPX had to go up, or the $VIX had to come down, or both. That's exactly what we're seeing today.
This is more than likely a short term bounce for the markets, as it continues it's course downward. After five straight down days, it was time for the markets to come up for a gasp of air, before it's next move lower.
The next few days, of course, could tell the tale for the year. There is some truth to the old saying: "as January goes, so goes the year", and "as the first trading days of January go, so goes the month".
Good luck everyone!
This shows the extreme value on Friday of 61.69, which was WAY below the lower Bollinger Band. In order for things to come to equilibreum, either the $SPX had to go up, or the $VIX had to come down, or both. That's exactly what we're seeing today.
This is more than likely a short term bounce for the markets, as it continues it's course downward. After five straight down days, it was time for the markets to come up for a gasp of air, before it's next move lower.
The next few days, of course, could tell the tale for the year. There is some truth to the old saying: "as January goes, so goes the year", and "as the first trading days of January go, so goes the month".
Good luck everyone!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
WoW! What a monster day for the markets! For those of you in equities, congratulations on a great start to the new year. Here's a follow up to my previous chart comparing the $SPX to the $VIX:
As you can plainly see, the market not only rebounded back to the "normal" range (~ 20 DMA), it shot clear up to the upper BB. Apparently Superman came to the rescue in Washington, before heading back to the batcave in Hawaii. I wouldn't expect a great deal more from the markets in the next few days, as we are already stretched pretty far to the upside, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the market show a few more positive days. Momentum has swung wildly the other way.
Let's hope the markets keep up this momentum for a long time, so everyone in the TSP can make some good returns this year...
Good luck!
As you can plainly see, the market not only rebounded back to the "normal" range (~ 20 DMA), it shot clear up to the upper BB. Apparently Superman came to the rescue in Washington, before heading back to the batcave in Hawaii. I wouldn't expect a great deal more from the markets in the next few days, as we are already stretched pretty far to the upside, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the market show a few more positive days. Momentum has swung wildly the other way.
Let's hope the markets keep up this momentum for a long time, so everyone in the TSP can make some good returns this year...
Good luck!
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