MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrBowl]

I moved to the G Fund because I felt that the German courts would throw a wet blanket on Draghi's party and that the Fed would only talk tough and not announce any action.

It seems like September being a traditionally bad month is pretty hit-and-miss. Also, the Fed usually does not like being political and has no desire to take actions that could affect an election, so I doubt they will act. But, this day and age, not doing anything could also be called influencing the election, so who knows... Anyway, if i'm right on those then the markets will likely tumble and September will end up as a down month. Any other outcome and I may just end up jumping back in on Thurs or Fri.

 

[JamesE]

I moved to the G Fund because I felt that the German courts would throw a wet blanket on Draghi's party and that the Fed would only talk tough and not announce any action.

It seems like September being a traditionally bad month is pretty hit-and-miss. Also, the Fed usually does not like being political and has no desire to take actions that could affect an election, so I doubt they will act. But, this day and age, not doing anything could also be called influencing the election, so who knows... Anyway, if i'm right on those then the markets will likely tumble and September will end up as a down month. Any other outcome and I may just end up jumping back in on Thurs or Fri.

I don't know, this rally shouldn't have happened, but it did and is continuing. I have a hard time believing the FED will mess things up. Reading some trading sites, looks like internals improving and things will resolve north from here. I have a sell from my paid service which could easily flip to a buy depending on todays action. I have missed these recent gains but it may not be too late to join the party. I really have no idea why I keep trying to out smart the market, I would be waaaaay ahead buy n hold after the last two years....

 

[GUCHI]

I don't know, this rally shouldn't have happened, but it did and is continuing. I have a hard time believing the FED will mess things up. Reading some trading sites, looks like internals improving and things will resolve north from here. I have a sell from my paid service which could easily flip to a buy depending on todays action. I have missed these recent gains but it may not be too late to join the party. I really have no idea why I keep trying to out smart the market, I would be waaaaay ahead buy n hold after the last two years....

james
there is something to be said about buy and hold. im basically a buy and hold since i dont know what im doing. still learning alot from this site. i considered going to safety after hearing the talk on tsptalk and TA but i stayed the course thinking that i have had a good run and if the market drops i can pull the plug and hopefully get out with some of the gain, but if it continues up i consider that icing or being fortunate.good luck to all. im positioned basically 50/50 s/c

 

[JamesE]

In these manipulated markets, I'm thinking its the best bet. There are big time money managers getting this year wrong. These are phony times we live in, fantasy money, unbelievable debt, somebody's gonna pay and its gonna be the little guy.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Interesting to see the dollar continue to fall here, with the threat of additional money printing by the Fed. The Dollar Index, UUP, is nearing short term support near 21.75 (red line), with longer term support going back over a year near 20.85 (black line).

As the dollar falls, typically the stock market goes up. If we get a bounce higher in the dollar, we may get a short term sell-off in the market.

Just something to keep your eyes on.

 

[Frixxxx]

Interesting to see the dollar continue to fall here, with the threat of additional money printing by the Fed. The Dollar Index, UUP, is nearing short term support near 21.75 (red line), with longer term support going back over a year near 20.85 (black line).

As the dollar falls, typically the stock market goes up. If we get a bounce higher in the dollar, we may get a short term sell-off in the market.

Just something to keep your eyes on.

Excellent observation. I used the same chart to make my final decision to go protective tomorrow! Thanks Mr. JR:nuts:

 

[bmneveu]

Interesting to see the dollar continue to fall here, with the threat of additional money printing by the Fed. The Dollar Index, UUP, is nearing short term support near 21.75 (red line), with longer term support going back over a year near 20.85 (black line).

As the dollar falls, typically the stock market goes up. If we get a bounce higher in the dollar, we may get a short term sell-off in the market.

Just something to keep your eyes on.

View attachment 20293

Thanks for the research!

 

[MrBowl]

Looks like I got this one wrong. I will be getting back in soon, and I do think the party is long from over that this point. At least in the short-term (multiple months) the FED and Europe actions represent a "Buy and hold" signal to me.

I am surprised by the FED. Good thing Rick Perry isn't the Rep candidate LOL. Either way, the Republicans will now throw a two-month tantrum and the rising markets will all but hand the election to Obama. I really didn't think the Fed would want to be tied to the election this much. Of course, I could be wrong on all of this again.

I hope the markets go on a nice long steady ascent, like with past Fed moves, and everyone on here takes the opportunity to make some large gains. It's the only way to keep your head above water as the dollar falls and oil rises.

 

[respro]

I hope the markets go on a nice long steady ascent, like with past Fed moves, and everyone on here takes the opportunity to make some large gains.

I'll second this one.

 

[Birchtree]

The big gains arrive tomorrow when the panic sets in - get me in at any price. When you are on the platform and the train is pulling away your anxiety levels go bonkers because you have no idea what you are leaving on the table. Keep your emotions in check - close your eyes and hold your nose and just jump.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm lusting after your tracker position - don't you want to seek shelter so I can usurp your tracker #?

 

[JTH]

I'm lusting after your tracker position - don't you want to seek shelter so I can usurp your tracker #?

That's an impressive slot you have, stay where you're at, I still have time to catch up to you...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I'm lusting after your tracker position - don't you want to seek shelter so I can usurp your tracker #?

Sure. As soon as my indicators make a downturn, I'll head to safety. Been a while since they've been on a sell signal.

The Market can't go up forever, right? Well, with Helicopter Ben at the controls, I may have to eat those words.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Looking for TZA to move above 14.41 for a sell signal, and TNA to move below 64 for a buy signal. Would love to see TNA drop down to 60, roughly equal to the 20 day SMA for a good buy point. Not sure we're going to see the market sell off that far. Bernokio has some more propping up to do.

Meanwhile, precious metals and AGQ have gone ballistic, again, thanks to Uncle Ben. Even though I pocketed a nice profit a few weeks ago, little did I know that the Fed was going to dump rocket fuel into the carburetor.

 

[bmneveu]

Looking for TZA to move above 14.41 for a sell signal, and TNA to move below 64 for a buy signal. Would love to see TNA drop down to 60, roughly equal to the 20 day SMA for a good buy point. Not sure we're going to see the market sell off that far. Bernokio has some more propping up to do.

Meanwhile, precious metals and AGQ have gone ballistic, again, thanks to Uncle Ben. Even though I pocketed a nice profit a few weeks ago, little did I know that the Fed was going to dump rocket fuel into the carburetor.

14.41 TZA would give me some nice profits! are you getting these numbers from the system you are testing? And how has that system done so far?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

14.41 TZA would give me some nice profits! are you getting these numbers from the system you are testing? And how has that system done so far?

I would break even at 14.35, so lets go a little higher...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

14.41 TZA would give me some nice profits! are you getting these numbers from the system you are testing? And how has that system done so far?

Yes, this is from my "test only" system that I've started testing in real time as of July 1. Here are the results so far...

[TABLE="width: 683"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Total
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Holding
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Model
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 6"]SECOND HALF OF 2012 USING SPREADSHEET AND CHARTS
[/TD]
[TD]% Gain
[/TD]
[TD]DAYS
[/TD]
[TD]$ 10,000.00
[/TD]
[TD]% Gain
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[TD]7/3/2012
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]BUY TZA
[/TD]
[TD]16.82
[/TD]
[TD]20.02
[/TD]
[TD]19.0%
[/TD]
[TD]14
[/TD]
[TD]$ 11,902.50
[/TD]
[TD]19.0%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]7/24/2012
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]BUY TNA
[/TD]
[TD]47.96
[/TD]
[TD]57.59
[/TD]
[TD]20.1%
[/TD]
[TD]18
[/TD]
[TD]$ 14,292.43
[/TD]
[TD]42.9%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[TD]8/17/2012
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]BUY TZA
[/TD]
[TD]16.27
[/TD]
[TD]13.93
[/TD]
[TD]-14.4%
[/TD]
[TD]-
[/TD]
[TD]$ 12,236.85
[/TD]
[TD]22.4%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


As you can see, it's done okay, (+22.4% since 7/3), but it still needs to account for times when TNA is overbought, but still continues to climb higher. (And vice versa). This means I need to rely more on my chart technical indicators, and less on my spreadsheet. When they both match up, the system should do fine. Just like Jan-Mar of this year, the market was overbought based on most indicators, but just would not stop climbing higher. When that happens, it can cause havoc with normal timing systems. I'll need to account for that.

I figure if I can get 75% winning trades, the long term results should be good. Perhaps even good enough to retire a little early. At least that's the goal.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I would break even at 14.35, so lets go a little higher...

I hear ya, RMI. I bought in at 15.05, so I have a ways to go before breaking even. I didn't like the set-up, so I only bet a small amount. I figured that I needed to put a little skin in the game. It's one thing to paper trade, but it really gets your attention when it's your own money on the line, right?

 

[bmneveu]

It's one thing to paper trade, but it really gets your attention when it's your own money on the line, right?

ain't that the truth! i'll be flying tomorrow. checking prices during layovers -- having mini heart attacks in between.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I hear ya, RMI. I bought in at 15.05, so I have a ways to go before breaking even. I didn't like the set-up, so I only bet a small amount. I figured that I needed to put a little skin in the game. It's one thing to paper trade, but it really gets your attention when it's your own money on the line, right?

Frustrating is more like it, but yes... it has my attention