MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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With the big drop on TNA this seems like an opportune time to buy some shares in it...but I'm worried what tomorrow will bring lol.

JR, when you moved your TSP back into the market did you also move your IRA(s) back in? My Roth is still on the sidelines and I've been wanting to get back in for a while now. I'm considering trying to manage my own money (as you have said before about your own) instead of putting it into a mutual fund as I have been doing and losing money from my bucket in high expense ratios etc. I guess ETF's probably have high expense ratios as well since they are managed by people like a mutual fund (I think?).

I'm just blabbing again :)
 
MaStA said:
With the big drop on TNA this seems like an opportune time to buy some shares in it...but I'm worried what tomorrow will bring lol.

JR, when you moved your TSP back into the market did you also move your IRA(s) back in? My Roth is still on the sidelines and I've been wanting to get back in for a while now. I'm considering trying to manage my own money (as you have said before about your own) instead of putting it into a mutual fund as I have been doing and losing money from my bucket in high expense ratios etc. I guess ETF's probably have high expense ratios as well since they are managed by people like a mutual fund (I think?).

I'm just blabbing again :)
Click to expand...

Yeah, I moved most of my money back into the market (TQQQ), and have moved in and out a couple of times, depending on the account. I'm still mostly invested in TQQQ, but do have some cash positioins as well.

The nice thing about ETF's is that they usually have much lower fees, and can be traded like stocks. Highly leveraged ETF's should be used with caution.

Vanguard has a fairly good primer on ETF's HERE. I'm sure there are other good sites as well.

Good luck!
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Yeah, I moved most of my money back into the market (TQQQ), and have moved in and out a couple of times, depending on the account. I'm still mostly invested in TQQQ, but do have some cash positioins as well.

The nice thing about ETF's is that they usually have much lower fees, and can be traded like stocks. Highly leveraged ETF's should be used with caution.

Vanguard has a fairly good primer on ETF's HERE. I'm sure there are other good sites as well.

Good luck!
Click to expand...

What exactly would a highly leveraged ETF be? I'm going to go out on a limb and say that TNA probably is in that class of ETF's since it seems to be a big mover whether it be positive or negative.

Thanks!
 
MaStA said:
What exactly would a highly leveraged ETF be? I'm going to go out on a limb and say that TNA probably is in that class of ETF's since it seems to be a big mover whether it be positive or negative.

Thanks!
Click to expand...

Yes, TNA is leveraged 3X to the upside. Here's a great list of LEVERAGED ETF'S.

Hope this helps!
 
MrJohnRoss said:
I agree with this article completely. Absolutely. 110%.

If you don't do this, you'll never make a lot of money. Ever.

10 Secrets to Being a Millionaire and Enjoying It

"Yes, opportunity is knocking for American investors. Less than two weeks ago Spectrem Group of Chicago released its latest annual report of American millionaires. About 200,000 new millionaires were added last year, for a new total of 8.6 million.
Click to expand...

Assuming:
No social security and no pension, hopefully wildly inaccurate assumptions :worried:
3% annualized inflation
4% annualized withdrawal from retirement savings when in retirement
7% annualized return on investment
$17000/year contributions to my retirement savings.
3% annualized increase in contributions to match inflation

My 4% annual withdrawal from retirement savings will exceed (barely) my current inflation adjusted salary when I'm 67. By that point I'll need over $4million in my retirement account. So, I damn well better be able to become a millionaire. :nuts:

Sadly this also assumes I don't change my lifestyle. Uggghh :blink:

Of course the lifestyle can start changing then. By the time I'm 75 my 4% withdrawal salary will be 43% higher than my current inflation adjusted salary. Perhaps my calculations need some tweaks :o
 
Last edited:
Mapper, you're being too logical. "If you keep on doing what you've always done, you'll keep on getting what you've always gotten."

I believe the true road to becoming wealthy is having a wealthy mindset.

I think you'd be amazed at what life could bring you if you truly put your mind to it.

Don't put any limits on your thoughts. There are literally thousands of ways you could become wealthy.

* Note: I'm not a millionaire self-help guru. Just a guy who believes in the unlimited power of our minds.
 
Well I'm just pulling numbers from my retirement planning spreadsheet. I think it's good to have this financial plan. I know the situation will change along the way, but the point remains; for a comfortable, secure retirement simply being a millionaire just plain isn't gonna cut it

As I noted, my assumptions are pretty damn safe....so hopefully I'll be ahead of the game and prepared for inevitable pitfalls along the way.

This year I'm cutting back on a few things to see if I can make the 17k max contribution....it's tough but so far so good, even been able to add a little savings on the side.

In a more direct response. Honestly I already feel wealthy. Helped a destitute elderly neighbor in need on Sunday after a giant tree split onto his house. A very small sacrifice of time and money from a few of us and he is able stay living in his home. It's good to be feel secure enough to help out friends, family and neighbors.
 
Sounds like you've got a great plan, Mapper. Keep up the good work! :)

Before too long, you'll be spouting Birchisms! ;)

Don't you just love helping out people in need? I know I do.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Interesting that you're banking on payroll data as the "sign" to time your move. What are you expecting, compared to the consensus estimates? Will you still move 100% into S if the market drops 250 points (or more) tomorrow? What if just the opposite occurs? Just curious, imike.
Click to expand...

I'm keeping my eye on the futures today and see how the other oversea markets do. I am hoping that we are almost at that bottom part to which I can buy the S fund low and sell high later. In my opinion the correction is happening, then the gains will come ;) If I see something horrible wrong like say a drop of the dow of 125 points again then yeah I am not gonna go all in.

As for payroll data I believe the forecast will be more than predicted(look below).

forecast conc prior
[TABLE="class: calendar-table"]
[TR="class: hl-row"]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Apr 06[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]08:30[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Nonfarm Payrolls[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"][/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]230K[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]200K[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]227K[/TD]
[TD="class: padding-left5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: wh-row"]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Apr 06[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]08:30[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Nonfarm Private Payrolls[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"][/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]250K[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]215K[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]233K[/TD]
[TD="class: padding-left5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: hl-row"]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Apr 06[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]08:30[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Unemployment Rate[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"][/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]8.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]8.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]8.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: padding-left5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: wh-row"]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Apr 06[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]08:30[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Hourly Earnings[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"][/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]0.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]0.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]0.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: padding-left5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: hl-row"]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Apr 06[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]08:30[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Average Workweek[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"][/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]34.5[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]34.5[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]34.5[/TD]
[TD="class: padding-left5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: wh-row"]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Apr 06[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]15:00[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Consumer Credit[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]Feb[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"][/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]$10.0B[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]$14.0B[/TD]
[TD="class: td-dot-border"]$17.8B[/TD]
[TD="class: padding-left5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 
Ladies and gentlemen, we're at a crossroads.

If you look at the Nasdaq, we've broken through the uptrending line that's been in place since Dec 19 of last year:

$compq.png


Also, take a look at the S&P 500. We have virtually the same condition here too:

$spx.png


My timing system has switched to sell signal, but perhaps we're just going to tag the uptrend line and bounce back up tomorrow.

My plan is to see how the markets look in the morning. If the market continues to fall, I'll place an IFT and move to the G Fund.

If we move higher, I'll assume that the uptrend continues, and stay in the C Fund.

Good luck to all of you...

JR
 
Thanks for sharing that ... I was thinking about jumping to G if the markets look bad in the morning, but you just convinced me (that is, if they do look bad -- I'm still hoping for a bounce tomorrow, but not holding my breath).
 
MrJohnRoss said:
If the market continues to fall, I'll place an IFT and move to the G Fund. If we move higher, I'll assume that the uptrend continues, and stay in the C Fund.
JR
Click to expand...

I was thinking about doing the opposite. As in....If the markets turn higher, take my money and run! If the markets turn lower, take my money before it's all gone. :laugh:
 
The market seems to be finding some support here, but I've decided to move to safety.

Barely got my IFT in time, as I had to attend a meeting several miles away. Sorry for the late notice.

Good luck everyone!
 
Here are some thoughts about moving to the G Fund:

The thing about using a "system", is that you're still in the driver's seat. Kinda like driving 50 MPH on a busy blvd, and just as you approach the intersection, the light changes to yellow, and you have to decide right then and there whether or not you're going to hit the brakes or keep on going through. We've all been right at that juncture, and we all make decisions based on the information available to us.

So far, buy and hold has been the best performer in 2012, but we all know that it can't last forever. Eventually the market is going to roll over and head south, even if it's just a short term 10% dip. I'm not convinced we have enough reasons at this time for a significant market correction to begin, but I'm playing it safe and hitting the brakes. Market internals are not looking especially strong right now (take a look at $NAAD, $NYAD, $NASI, $NYSI, $SPXA50, etc.). Some people are making a convincing argument that the market internals look like a topping process is taking place. If things look better in a few days/weeks, I'll adjust accordingly. Until then, I'll be on the lilly pad, watching the wheels go 'round.

Good luck everyone!

lilly pad.jpg
 
This is a chilling article, if you're brave enough to read it...

The Money Masters Are Living In Fear

"Whoever controls the volume of money in our country is absolute master of all industry and commerce…and when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another, by few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate.” ~ President James Garfield, 2 weeks before his assassination
 
What if these guys are right???

Peak Civilization: MIT Research Team Predicts Global Economic Collapse and Precipitous Population Declilne

"Researchers at one of the world’s leading think tanks have developed a computing model that predicts serious implications for our way of life as a result of our incessant need to consume resources like oil, food, and fresh water. According to a team of scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the breaking point will come no later than 2030, and when it does, we can expect a paradigm shift unlike any we have seen before in human history – one that will not only collapse the economies of the world, but will cause food and energy production to decrease so significantly that it will lead to the deaths of hundreds of millions of people in the process..."
 
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