felixthecat
Member
Oh my, the F fund took some punishment. Compared to C/S...that is a hit (not in a good way either). Thanks for the update. G Fund are the winners today. Congrats.
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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Updated 60 minute graph of the S&P 500:
For a couple of hours this morning, the market looked like it was going to take off to the upside. By the middle of the day, it stalled out, and then slid down all afternoon, which was rather disappointing.
Looks like the market did a head fake rally out of the box, then took traders to the cleaners in the afternoon. If you made any IFT decisions before the deadline, you were in for a surprise.
This was a failed rally, and doesn't look very promising. Perhaps the 3rd grader trading technique was the right way to play it, by selling at the top of the box. As JTH would say, I'm getting tired of this market being locked in this trading range, and am itching to see it finally break out one way or another.
For a couple of hours this morning, the market looked like it was going to take off to the upside. By the middle of the day, it stalled out, and then slid down all afternoon, which was rather disappointing.
Looks like the market did a head fake rally out of the box, then took traders to the cleaners in the afternoon. If you made any IFT decisions before the deadline, you were in for a surprise.
This was a failed rally, and doesn't look very promising. Perhaps the 3rd grader trading technique was the right way to play it, by selling at the top of the box. As JTH would say, I'm getting tired of this market being locked in this trading range, and am itching to see it finally break out one way or another.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Relative Strength graph of the S&P 500 vs EFA (C Fund vs I Fund):
I cleaned up this graph because there were too many ancillary indicators that were causing some confusion. Hopefully this view is a little easier to read.
As you can see from the graph, the C Fund has been outperforming the I Fund most of last year, since the trendline is going from the lower left to the upper right. This trend peaked in early January, and the tides turned in favor of the I Fund.
However, now the lower sloping trendline has been broken by the C Fund, which is appearing to regain it's strength. Today's weakness in the I Fund really shows up in the graph at the far right, as the line moves higher, showing C Fund strength.
I believe it remains to be seen if this is going to be a long lasting trend change, or if this is just a bump on the road back down. To make an IFT from the I Fund to either C or S may backfire if the trend changes again. And with this skittish market, I'm going to sit tight until I see more evidence that it's time to transfer funds.
I cleaned up this graph because there were too many ancillary indicators that were causing some confusion. Hopefully this view is a little easier to read.
As you can see from the graph, the C Fund has been outperforming the I Fund most of last year, since the trendline is going from the lower left to the upper right. This trend peaked in early January, and the tides turned in favor of the I Fund.
However, now the lower sloping trendline has been broken by the C Fund, which is appearing to regain it's strength. Today's weakness in the I Fund really shows up in the graph at the far right, as the line moves higher, showing C Fund strength.
I believe it remains to be seen if this is going to be a long lasting trend change, or if this is just a bump on the road back down. To make an IFT from the I Fund to either C or S may backfire if the trend changes again. And with this skittish market, I'm going to sit tight until I see more evidence that it's time to transfer funds.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
oh...oh...thats exactly what I did today!!!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
No worries, you may have made the correct move. I'm going to hold an a longer, just to be sure.
JTH
Well-known member
No risk, no reward, sometimes you gotta put it out there to reel in the big fish.
From my perspective, if the ECB injects liquidity, it's great for EFA, but at the same time it cheapens the EURO, much was the case of our QEs. How this balances out for the I-Fund remains to be seen. At the same time, Japan's interest in a weak YEN further strengthens the U.S dollar in relation to the increased profit margin of Japan's auto industry.
The million dollar question is what does the Fed do with the dollar, we clearly aren't defending it, but at some point in time, we'll need to reel it back in. It is at this point in time I'll have concerns for the American markets, and if the American markets lead the world markets, then what does this mean for all of us?
Under my disillusioned thought process, when the dollar breaks, CSI breaks, a deep bear market begins and not one of us will have a safe place to hide our money...
burrocrat
Well-known member
i notice you said 'when' not 'if'.
and
that is why i keep a couple three tubes of tsptalk silver around and handy.
you don't need much, just enough to get by for a while. after a few weeks there will plenty of extra free stuff just lying around for the taking. so long as you don't mind stepping over the dead rotting corpses of its previous owners.
the new currency is going to rapidy revaluate to rocks and sticks if the fed loses the leash on their liquidity/inflation dragon.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
That makes me feel better. I made a last minute reallocation because C fund was looking like it has room for upward movement and the "I" fund makes me nervous. I can see where it could go up (Weekly Slow Stochastic has upward slope), but everything is soooo volatile right now. Wish I would have exited Thursday... But on to the next campaign!!
Best wishes to you!
Speaking of Japan.... Did you hear where they may make it the law that you have to take your vacation leave or face fines. That's krazy. Maybe we can learn something from that over here in the mainland. My son was over there last year and he said that's all they do is work and they are happy to do so. Wow
. Maybe we can learn something from that over here in the mainland. My son was over there last year and he said that's all they do is work and they are happy to do so. Wow
There is another fly in the ointment, the Feds have talked about raising interest rates sometime this summer. As long as the ECB can pull off their magic trick, raising rates here will make the overseas market look a little more inviting even if the dollar stays balanced to the Euro and the Yen.
JTH
Well-known member
Perhaps this is the case, truth is there are so many moving parts here, that by the time I figure out what's going on, the move is over and we're moving over to the next "big thing." But none of this is really a concern of mine, I'll trade what I see and make the best of whatever situation we're handed.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Please help me understand. Why would raising interests rates here make oversees markets a little more inviting with the dollar in balance with Euro and Yen? Would it be because the stocks or bond values here would drop?
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Yep...that's all we can do. There are so many moving parts I'm not even sure of which parts to look at or rely on to make a decision. This years seems much tougher!Perhaps this is the case, truth is there are so many moving parts here, that by the time I figure out what's going on, the move is over and we're moving over to the next "big thing." But none of this is really a concern of mine, I'll trade what I see and make the best of whatever situation we're handed.
But I do like your charts in your post #3762 and 3763. I like the box and the relative strength comparison of S&P 500 to EFA. I think I will add that my tech analysis "tool box". Great comparison!!! Plus do some more studies like that for all our funds. Thank you so much!!
Last edited:
wwwtractor
Member
I am dollar cost averaging into the C=40%, S=30%, and I=30% so I get more shares when the price is down.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Shoulda woulda coulda taken advice from my 3rd grade self, and sold at the top of the box. Today looks like we're gonna head back down for another re-test.
Sheesh.
:trink26:
Sheesh.
:trink26:
ravensfan
Well-known member
Been there...done that...got the negative returns to prove it...
JTH
Well-known member
No worries, you aren't wrong until you make the wrong move. We should be happy a 3rd grader can identify a trading range which has 5 hits on the bottom, with 3 on top, making it fairly easy to exhaust the sellers before we get to the top of the trading range. To boot, nobody seems to care that this was the lowest volume we've had in 20 days, hinting at a lack of conviction.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
In the back of my mind, I'm thinking that if this market breaks to the upside, I'm already in, but if breaks to the downside, this narrow trading range isn't going to make much difference if I need to sell. So I'll just hang on a bit longer. But I really have no conviction on which way this market is gonna go. If I had to guess, I'd say down. Perhaps a good 10% correction would get this constipated market cleared up.
Plop plop, fizz fizz, oh what a relief it is.
:Flush:
JTH
Well-known member
That about sums it up, I'm willing to absorb the risk of this trading range, in the longer view it's a meager 4% haircut if it goes wrong. In my book, that amount of risk under "bull market" conditions is acceptable.
I do concede there is a divergence in the force, but if I spent all my time thinking that Darth Vader was my taxi cap driver, then I'd never make it to my destination :1244:
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Updated graph of 60 minute S&P 500:
Today was a pleasant surprise to the upside. This paints a little better picture of the market going forward. I'm now thinking that the box is going to be broken to the upside. Hope to see former resistance as support.
This view shows the upper consolidation line being broken four days ago, and resistance has now become support. Would like to see 2093 taken out, (of course). Historically, February is a choppy month, especially around Presidents Day, so the market may very likely remain skittish. Another factor is oil, which is beginning to look like it may be getting ready for a resumption back down after this intermediate wave higher. That could also weigh on the markets, as well as a whole host of other world events. Stay tuned.
Today was a pleasant surprise to the upside. This paints a little better picture of the market going forward. I'm now thinking that the box is going to be broken to the upside. Hope to see former resistance as support.
This view shows the upper consolidation line being broken four days ago, and resistance has now become support. Would like to see 2093 taken out, (of course). Historically, February is a choppy month, especially around Presidents Day, so the market may very likely remain skittish. Another factor is oil, which is beginning to look like it may be getting ready for a resumption back down after this intermediate wave higher. That could also weigh on the markets, as well as a whole host of other world events. Stay tuned.
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