MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[felixthecat]

I'm not seeing it but stranger things have happened. January Blues.

The market is actually performing today as expected. A negative open following by a slow grind up. The project outcome is flat close to .25% up S&C Funds. Of course anything could happen between now and close....but past performance in large previous day strong rally to the end of the day...have led to this consistent outcome. So barring no major news surprises...yawn type of day and therefore....a quiet TSPTalk board.

 

[WorkFE]

I agree on the flat close. In fact if one was considering a move to the G, today would be the day to do it safely with slight certainty that the market would hold the last few days gains.
But here we are on a beautiful Friday and thinking about a cold one and the weekend. Life is good.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Not too surprising to see the market take a little pause here. Big percentage moves like the one that happened yesterday just don't happen every day. Short term indicators were getting a little over-heated, so it's time to let the "hot engine" light go out before we resume our trek higher.

 

[WorkFE]

Remind me never to agree with felix. :laugh:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's an updated view of the 60 minute chart of the S&P. What was surprising to me was to see the S&P hit the exact top of the box and immediately back off. It's not quite ready to break that 2064 level.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's a chart of how the I Fund has performed vs the C Fund. Over the past year, the I Fund has performed dismally, as the slope of the line curved down all year. Then, on Jan 9th, that trend suddenly changed. The downtrend line was clearly broken with a strong move to the upside, meaning the I Fund was performing better than C. (The graph of I vs S looks very similar.) This was the reason why it made sense to move into the I Fund when it recently became time to go back into equities.

Unfortunately, the I Fund has pulled back a little since that time, but with the ECB assisting the markets, the trend change is likely to be long lasting. The strong dollar is hurting the I Fund's returns, but there's not any way to hedge against that with our limited investment choices in the TSP. Still, I believe the odds are good that we'll see some continued outperformance of the EAFE vs the S&P in the coming weeks.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's a good article on the current state of affairs with the gold and silver market:

[h=1]Gold And Silver - Timing Is Most Important Element[/h]

 

[OBGibby]

Here's a chart of how the I Fund has performed vs the C Fund. Over the past year, the I Fund has performed dismally, as the slope of the line curved down all year. Then, on Jan 9th, that trend suddenly changed. The downtrend line was clearly broken with a strong move to the upside, meaning the I Fund was performing better than C. (The graph of I vs S looks very similar.) This was the reason why it made sense to move into the I Fund when it recently became time to go back into equities.

Unfortunately, the I Fund has pulled back a little since that time, but with the ECB assisting the markets, the trend change is likely to be long lasting. The strong dollar is hurting the I Fund's returns, but there's not any way to hedge against that with our limited investment choices in the TSP. Still, I believe the odds are good that we'll see some continued outperformance of the EAFE vs the S&P in the coming weeks.


View attachment 32144

Even if the Dollar reaches parity with the Euro?

 

[pmaloney]

I agree. I think that once we get past elections in Greece this weekend things should stabilize and the I fund may continue to outperform again. Hopefully for an extended period.
Have a good weekend.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

This coming week begins the final trading week for January. As the saying goes; "as goes January, so goes the year". So it will be interesting to see how this final week plays out.

As it stands now, the S&P is basically flat for the month (-0.34%). Keep in mind that pre-presidential years (like 2015) have had no losers for the past 76 years. That would seem to suggest that for the rest of January, the S&P better hurry up and go positive to fulfill it's predictive capabilities. Heh. :blink:

The S.T.A. is showing that this coming week has historically been fairly bullish, with two especially bullish days on tap. Let's hope history repeats itself this year. There's another old saying: "History doesn't always repeat itself, but it often times rhymes", which could be the case this year.

On this Sunday eve, stock futures are pointing to a lower opening. Dow futures are currently down -104 points. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow morning before the bell.

Good luck!

 

[nasa1974]

This coming week begins the final trading week for January. As the saying goes; "as goes January, so goes the year". So it will be interesting to see how this final week plays out.

Good luck!

Last January was not good but the year ended better than January did. Lets hope this year ends well.

 

[soon2retire]

MrJohnRoss I changed my avatar to see if we can lead this market higher!

 

[pmaloney]

Great call going to I fund! Up over 1.4% right now.

 

[sniper]

Here's an updated view of the 60 minute chart of the S&P. What was surprising to me was to see the S&P hit the exact top of the box and immediately back off. It's not quite ready to break that 2064 level.

Looks like a possible cup & handle with nice upside potential if it can break through 2064.43 on the next attempt.

good call on the I fund, it's kicking butt right now

 

[Khotso]

Great call going to I fund! Up over 1.4% right now.

No kidding! I noted MrJR's move to I last Friday myself -- masterful!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

MrJohnRoss I changed my avatar to see if we can lead this market higher!

Great call going to I fund! Up over 1.4% right now.

Looks like a possible cup & handle with nice upside potential if it can break through 2064.43 on the next attempt.

good call on the I fund, it's kicking butt right now

No kidding! I noted MrJR's move to I last Friday myself -- masterful!

Bwahahaha! Well, golly, thanks. :embarrest:

The I fund did very well, and will be helped by the dollar, which was down slightly. The S fund did well today, but not so much C. So the mathematical equation looks like this: [C < S < I = $$$].

Just plug that equation into your Tandem 386, and it'll spit out tomorrow's closing Dow for you. :nuts:

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Bwahahaha! Well, golly, thanks. :embarrest:

The I fund did very well, and will be helped by the dollar, which was down slightly. The S fund did well today, but not so much C. So the mathematical equation looks like this: [C < S < I = $$$].

Just plug that equation into your Tandem 386, and it'll spit out tomorrow's closing Dow for you. :nuts:

I was a little skeptical last week on the I, but I am now convinced that it is the real deal! I will be trending in, albeit slowly, by shifting some C and S to I. Going to 40C, 45S, 15I. Good call, John!

 

[Cactus]

Bwahahaha! Well, golly, thanks. :embarrest:

The I fund did very well, and will be helped by the dollar, which was down slightly. The S fund did well today, but not so much C. So the mathematical equation looks like this: [C < S < I = $$$].

Just plug that equation into your Tandem 386, and it'll spit out tomorrow's closing Dow for you. :nuts:

If I dig up an old Tandy 486 will it give me the closing price through the end of the week?

 

[pmaloney]

Lotus, Quattro, or Excel? :laugh:

 

[nasa1974]

I know that the "I" fund will adjust it's final posting because of the difference between the close of the European market and the American market but almost half? The "I" fund closed around 1.37% and posted at 0.79%. anybody remember that large of a discrepancy before?