MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

MJR,

Can you post once you have decided if and when you plan to buy TZA? Thank you.

Waiting for end of day MOSI data. This was the kind of day that I feared would happen, where the markets look like they're rolling over for days, so you jump out, and suddenly you get a big up-tick. *SMDH*.

Eh well, I'm thinking this is a short term head-fake rally, as the momentum on most of the indices look to be waning. I certainlly could be wrong. The market is very good at making you look like a fool from time to time, but I don't believe now is the time to jump back in. Looking at the RSI, we're crossing into the danger territory, so it's just a matter of time, IMHO, until we get at least a mild pull-back.

Worst case scenario is some rat-a-tat-tat up and down days (like we had from March thru mid May) that really cause confusion and traders to give up, or at least doubt, their systems. "Trading in a box" is what I call it. Unless you're a day trader, those kind of markets are pretty sucky.

I do love the action in the miners, tho! Dang, GDXJ, NUGT and JNUG are killin' it! It is a bit of a head scratcher, as usually the metals/miners don't perform well when stocks do well, since they're competing for the same dollar. $USD was down slightly, so that could be part of the reason, but I really think the miners were quite simply extremely oversold and due for a big bounce.

Also interesting to see bonds do well today. I thought for sure they'd be down, with the market heading higher.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Picked up some TZA this morning at 13.725.

Good luck!

 

[JTH]

Picked up some TZA this morning at 13.725.

Good luck!

Not cool, you're supposed to wait for me to dump my TNA...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Not cool, you're supposed to wait for me to dump my TNA...

Luckily, I sold my position on 11/14 (Friday). Looked like a topping process was taking shape, so I bailed. Doubting we're going to have a serious market pullback, maybe a 3 - 5% cooling off period for a good week or so, then we head higer. That's my guess. What's your crystal ball say?

 

[JTH]

Luckily, I sold my position on 11/14 (Friday). Looked like a topping process was taking shape, so I bailed. Doubting we're going to have a serious market pullback, maybe a 3 - 5% cooling off period for a good week or so, then we head higer. That's my guess. What's your crystal ball say?

I was stopped out of TNA today for a loss, although not a large loss. The ROTH has sucked wind this year and it's 100% my fault for not keeping track of my postions.

As for the crystal ball, my hybrid indicators have been doing some odd things lately, they aren't overbought, but are actually compressed and oversold, I'm not even giving them any weight until they prove to me they are working again. What we aren't getting is participation in unison across the major indexes, which is why I haven't called a top yet. Seems to be the same story from the previous top, large caps/tech outperforms while small caps take the brunt of the decline. In my mind there is no logical reason to be invested while price is flat-lining at 52-week highs, yet here I am invested, like a deer staring into the headlights of an oncoming truck...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The market still looks overbought here, but it could continue even higher... at least for a while. Check out this chart of the S&P:



This same kind of market action occurred from mid June thru late July. The S&P chopped back and forth from the 1951 level to 1969, even thought the RSI was in overbought territory, and the PPO and Stoch kept looking like they was an impending pullback.

The pullback finally came in early August, and was completed in less than two weeks before the market climbed higher again. It's possible the same scenario is happening again now. The big difference is the magnitude of the PPO now is much higher than before. This just means that current prices are further away (higher) from their 50 DMA than before. Like a rubber band, I'm expecting the 50 day to pull prices back to "normal" before springing back higher.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

By the way, the W5000 MOSI is dancing on the zero line, acting like it's toying with traders nerves on whether or not it's going to fall. Give up the ship MOSI!

*BANG! BANG! BANG!*

*smoking gun*

 

[JTH]

The market still looks overbought here, but it could continue even higher... at least for a while. Check out this chart of the S&P:

View attachment 31230

This same kind of market action occurred from mid June thru late July. The S&P chopped back and forth from the 1951 level to 1969, even thought the RSI was in overbought territory, and the PPO and Stoch kept looking like they was an impending pullback.

The pullback finally came in early August, and was completed in less than two weeks before the market climbed higher again. It's possible the same scenario is happening again now. The big difference is the magnitude of the PPO now is much higher than before. This just means that current prices are further away (higher) from their 50 DMA than before. Like a rubber band, I'm expecting the 50 day to pull prices back to "normal" before springing back higher.

I like that analsys, it falls inline with my medium/long term expectations, only I think you said it better than I could have expressed it. As you mentioned, "if we see the same thing, then why should'nt we expect to get the same results?" This is the underlining problem I've been dealing with, common sense tells me we should be expecting a deeper pullback based on the indicator's historical performance. I can't say what is right or what is wrong, but I do agree your projections are logical, and I do believe logic is right, I just never know when it's going to be right, or if I'll see it when it's coming...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I like that analsys, it falls inline with my medium/long term expectations, only I think you said it better than I could have expressed it. As you mentioned, "if we see the same thing, then why should'nt we expect to get the same results?" This is the underlining problem I've been dealing with, common sense tells me we should be expecting a deeper pullback based on the indicator's historical performance. I can't say what is right or what is wrong, but I do agree your projections are logical, and I do believe logic is right, I just never know when it's going to be right, or if I'll see it when it's coming...

Yep. Sometimes watching this market is like watching a glacier grind through a canyon. We think we know where it's going, but damn, it sure goes at it's own sweet time (and direction), doesn't it.

I still think TZA is the right move right now, but I might end up with egg on my face if this market keeps going higher. I don't mind the up and down days, I'm just expecting lower highs and lower lows. And by that, I mean sooner rather than later.

One way to look at it is this: TZA is like an insurance policy for all my stock holdings. On all the down days, my stocks get clobbered, but TZA shines... and vice-versa.

I'm thinking maybe I should lighten up on my stocks on the up days, since I'm of the opinion the market is headed lower. Don't know why I hate to sell them. It's all a head game.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Hmmmm... looks like we may have a bearish shooting star on the S&P today.

 

[JTH]

Hmmmm... looks like we may have a bearish shooting star on the S&P today.

Just when I was wanted to goat your TZA bearish outlook, demand stepped in strong, but then appears to get stripped by supply, it certainly looks like an exhaustion-style reversal could take place. Or perhaps it's time for our old friend Mr. Volatility to rear it's awesome head!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Okay all you C & S Fund holders, that was a nice pop across my jaw, as I slipped down a couple of notches on the AT. Still hanging on to my F Fund into the coming week tho. I might have lost this week's battle, but the war is not over yet.

Anyone have the "Stock Traders Almanac"? I believe the week of Thanksgiving is usually a slow week for traders, with light volume, so there might not be much fanfare or fireworks.

It appears to me that the S&P had a shooting star formation, and the Nasdaq a hanging man formation, both bearish topping patterns. Are these formations infallible? Of course not, but they do tell a tale of how traders behaved. Quite possibly the big traders performed a bit of the ol' "pump and dump".

I have to chuckle when I hear the talking heads proclaiming "the Dow closed at another record high"! We all know that's only half the story.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Investors Hated Gold at Precisely The Wrong Time: What About Now?

 

[pmaloney]

Just curious but why are you in the F? It has been good in the C & S and I'm hoping for an interesting gay up tomorrow followed by an good wee, and then out for a look out below beginning of December and if that happens I'll load up double at the end of December for the Santa Claus Rally! I guess you are thinking otherwise?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Just curious but why are you in the F? It has been good in the C & S and I'm hoping for an interesting gay up tomorrow followed by an good wee, and then out for a look out below beginning of December and if that happens I'll load up double at the end of December for the Santa Claus Rally! I guess you are thinking otherwise?

I mainly use technical analysis to base my IFT decisions, like the PPO, RSI, Stoch, MOSI, etc. You can look at some of the charts I've posted in the last few days to see what I'm seeing.

Based on my analysis, we're in an overbought condition that is ripe for a pullback. A 3-5% pullback would be just swell in my eyes, and allow me to swoop back in to pick up some bargains.

 

[pmaloney]

Thanks, I have a lot to learn and I appreciate your posts.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

It's Decision Time For Gold, Miners, And The Dollar

 

[MrJohnRoss]

More egg on my face today, as I slip down another notch on the AT. Historically, the Wed and Fri surrounding Thanksgiving have been very strong, so I may have to endure even more extreme upside price action.

Ah, but when that rubber band gets stretched too far...

*SNAP!* Ouch!

 

[JTH]

More egg on my face today, as I slip down another notch on the AT. Historically, the Wed and Fri surrounding Thanksgiving have been very strong, so I may have to endure even more extreme upside price action.

Ah, but when that rubber band gets stretched too far...

*SNAP!* Ouch!

Ahh man how horrible for you, 6th place is 5th place loser

You can afford a good ribbing, eat the pain, yummy yummy...

Took another loss today in UNG, I'm trying to close out some of these dud positons I took over the year, a -15% hit, at least the position wasn't big. Already read the 2015 traders almanac and getting the plan in place, next year I'll be taking more positions over fewer stocks, will probably just play a handful of ETFs next year. Adding to this, it will be more important to trade smart, I won't be putting a dime in the ROTH next year, every spare cent I have will go into paying down dept. I want to be debt free before I hit 20 years in the military, that gives me under 3 years to get this done.

Keep chiming in, I enjoy eating the crow you've been serving...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Ahh man how horrible for you, 6th place is 5th place loser

You can afford a good ribbing, eat the pain, yummy yummy...

Took another loss today in UNG, I'm trying to close out some of these dud positons I took over the year, a -15% hit, at least the position wasn't big. Already read the 2015 traders almanac and getting the plan in place, next year I'll be taking more positions over fewer stocks, will probably just play a handful of ETFs next year. Adding to this, it will be more important to trade smart, I won't be putting a dime in the ROTH next year, every spare cent I have will go into paying down dept. I want to be debt free before I hit 20 years in the military, that gives me under 3 years to get this done.

Keep chiming in, I enjoy eating the crow you've been serving...

Don't you have a frozen pole to stick your tongue on or something?

Haha. jk.

Like you, I'm already thinking about next year, and how I plan to improve my investment results. How do you like the traders almanac?

I got a few too many stocks in my accounts that are laggards as well. Trying to decide if they're in a big basing pattern or just plain o' duds. Doing much better in the TSP than in my other accounts, so I may simplify and use a few ETF's as well. Much easier to keep track of, but will have to time them just right to get the kind of returns I'm hoping for.