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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
[h=1]Government Shutdowns Have Never Hurt The Stock Market[/h]
There’s a lot of handwringing over whether the government shutdown will hurt the stock market. If history is any guide, the answer is no.
There have been 17 government shutdowns—which the government prefers to call “funding shortfalls”—since the mid 1970s. There were six during Jimmy Carter’s presidency, eight during the Reagan years, one for George H.W. Bush, and Bill Clinton participated in two.
The shutdowns have never cost the stock market more than a few points, and in most cases the market actually went up. [Check out the numbers]
Government Shutdowns Have Never Hurt The Stock Market - Forbes
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I know this current market cycle higher won't last forever, but it sure has been very good to me. Bought TNA and BIB near the bottom of the cycle (Oct 16), and have a 28.5% and 25.8% gain, respectively. Just waiting and watching to see when it loses steam, so I can step aside.
Not certain that my move to C was the right move yet. There still is no clear winner, as S and C both have performed well during this run up. Since Oct 16, S is up 9.0%, and C is up 9.4%. Like a couple of heavyweight champions, duking it out.
Not certain that my move to C was the right move yet. There still is no clear winner, as S and C both have performed well during this run up. Since Oct 16, S is up 9.0%, and C is up 9.4%. Like a couple of heavyweight champions, duking it out.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Today looks like a shot across the bow of this speeding vessel. It's not time to abandon ship, but it sure has come too far too fast. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a cool down for a few days, and perhaps some choppy action to confuse traders. The W5000 MOSI is still rising and looking good, as well as the MOSI for the S&P500, 600, and Nasdaq. The only index that looks troubling is the Utilities. It's also interesting to see the Consumer Staples outperforming the Consumer Discretionary stocks. Not sure what's up with that, but I do find it surprising, especially during this move higher for the major indicies.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
W5000 McClellan Oscillator is now at 16.25 and dropping. Watch that AD Line tomorrow folks. Also keep your eye on the S&P500 MOSI.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Yeah, I would never use one single indicator to base my trades, but it sure can be helpful in spotting potential tops and bottoms. I wish all you had to do was watch the line cross zero, so we could all be millionaires.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Sold BIB for a gain of 18.5%.
Sold TNA for a gain of 24.7%.
Thank you Mr. Market. Time to lighten up on the high flyers.
Sold TNA for a gain of 24.7%.
Thank you Mr. Market. Time to lighten up on the high flyers.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Now the question is... should I move to G or F today. Unfortunately, the MOSI is an EOD (end of day) indicator, so I will have to decide based on other indicators prior to the IFT deadline...
The market just is not giving a clear indication at this point with one hour to go. Just as flat as a pancake.
The market just is not giving a clear indication at this point with one hour to go. Just as flat as a pancake.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Possibly, but that remains to be seen. We could witness a rocket ride or slow melt-up next week, or we might get more rollover action. I'm guessing the latter, mainly because of the timing cycle, which is typically 30-40 calendar days in length, although it can get stretched or compressed. The action in the bond market and the PM's also raised my cautionary alarms a bit.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Gold and Miners are way oversold IMHO. If I didn't have exposure, I would have been very tempted to go long some JNUG below 4 bucks for at least a short term bounce. Longer term, I'm expecting more pain due to the strength of the USD.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
GLD, SLV and the miners are painting some massive upside bullish engulfing candles. UUP ($USD) is painting a large bearish enfulfing candle. Are things really turning around for the metals markets?
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Spent some time sorting through the MOSI's on 16 different sectors. None have triggered a sell signal, except the Utilities (XLU), which flipped to sell on Nov 11. Since that time, the Utilities are down -3%. It sure is looking like a lot of the others could flip soon tho. Momentum is waning.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Here's an interesting essay on China's long term plans to dominate the financial world, and what it may imply for the future price of gold:
[h=1]Golden Dragons Grand Strategy
[/h]
[h=1]Golden Dragons Grand Strategy
[/h]
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Had to mix rocket fuel for 10 hours today, so just getting a chance to review some charts. What I found interesting was that several indices have flipped to a sell based on their MOSI. They are:
Financials
Nasdaq
S&P600 (Small Caps)
The Utilities continue their plunge.
The Wilshire 5000 barely eeked out from a sell signal, with a reading of 0.04, which is roughly the equivalent of a gnats a**.
Let's see what tomorrow brings. Considering a position in TZA for a short term swing. Wish I coulda been at the steering wheel today.
And those miners sure are looking like they're gonna be making a nice move higher!
Financials
Nasdaq
S&P600 (Small Caps)
The Utilities continue their plunge.
The Wilshire 5000 barely eeked out from a sell signal, with a reading of 0.04, which is roughly the equivalent of a gnats a**.
Let's see what tomorrow brings. Considering a position in TZA for a short term swing. Wish I coulda been at the steering wheel today.
And those miners sure are looking like they're gonna be making a nice move higher!
MJR,
Can you post once you have decided if and when you plan to buy TZA? Thank you.
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