MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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A nice 216 point run-up for the Dow today. Certainly NOT expecting tomorrow to be an up day. Two steps forward, one step back.
 
Let's measure the performance of the C and S Funds from the bottom of the low spike on Oct 10th, (using $SPX & $EMW):

C Fund: +7.9%
S Fund: +8.3%

S Fund had an immediate strong spike up, but looking at the relative comparison graph of the two, it appears that the C Fund MAY be gaining strength over the S Fund. Since Oct 16th, C Fund has outperformed S by 0.95%. That's not a lot, but if this relative strength continues, it may be reason enough for me to burn a 2nd IFT and make a move to C. I'll watch the PPO crossover for confirmation.

S vs C.png

As always, there are no guarantees in this game. Good luck!
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Let's measure the performance of the C and S Funds from the bottom of the low spike on Oct 10th, (using $SPX & $EMW):

C Fund: +7.9%
S Fund: +8.3%

S Fund had an immediate strong spike up, but looking at the relative comparison graph of the two, it appears that the C Fund MAY be gaining strength over the S Fund. Since Oct 16th, C Fund has outperformed S by 0.95%. That's not a lot, but if this relative strength continues, it may be reason enough for me to burn a 2nd IFT and make a move to C. I'll watch the PPO crossover for confirmation.

View attachment 30821

As always, there are no guarantees in this game. Good luck!
Click to expand...

MrJohnRoss,

Thanks for your comparison. I'll be watching your update in the performance comparison. Tia.
 
That's better than I thought. I thought I had moved to S fund but didn't follow through on tsp.gov and so I'm still in C fund. At first I lost potential gains but seems c fund caught back up.
 
clester said:
That's better than I thought. I thought I had moved to S fund but didn't follow through on tsp.gov and so I'm still in C fund. At first I lost potential gains but seems c fund caught back up.
Click to expand...

Normally in a strong bull market, you would expect small caps to outperform large caps. That changed about mid-year, as you can see by the downward sloping 50 DMA. You can also look at the Auto Tracker, and C (+8.10%) has a nice lead over S (+1.87%) at this point. Heck, even G (+1.90%) has a lead over S this year! Small caps were smashed pretty hard during this last downturn.
 
Another very nice day for the markets. Monday begins the November thru April seasonally strong period of the year for stocks. The old adage; "Sell in May and go away" is sage advice, but now it's time to get back in to take advantage of the strong period. I'll keep that thought in the back of my mind, but primarily I'll be watching the technical indicators for my buy and sell signals. Currently, the gas pedal is still floored, and the Wilsh5000 MOSI is still on a buy signal, so I'm staying fully invested.... for now.
 
Here's a chart of the Bullish Percent Gold Miner's Index. Who's interested in buying gold miners right now? I'll tell you who... NOBODY! Is it time to buy when there's blood in the streets? I'd be very careful here. There's a lot of cross-currents that are affecting PM prices, the main one being the strength of the dollar. With Europe teetering, China slowing, and Russia sanctioned, the U.S. dollar is the current kingpin. How long it lasts is anybody's guess.

For the short term, PM's and miners are severely oversold. I'd expect a bounce next week. Longer term, I think we're going to grind lower to find a bottom.

$BPGDM.png
 
Thanks John, looks to me there's some severe damage here, I just noticed GLD broke through a 114 triple bottom going back to June 2013. At this juncture I show the next level of support to test is at 102.5 I can only imagine how those gold bugs must be feeling, this speaks to why having a balance portfolio is so crucial.
 
Very often, the best way to be successful in the long run is not to aim at being successful in the short run. I'll be buying some SBGL and FCX this week for sure.
 
JTH said:
Thanks John, looks to me there's some severe damage here, I just noticed GLD broke through a 114 triple bottom going back to June 2013. At this juncture I show the next level of support to test is at 102.5 I can only imagine how those gold bugs must be feeling, this speaks to why having a balance portfolio is so crucial.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. Position sizing is critical. So is cutting your losses early, before they become huge.
 
Birchtree said:
Very often, the best way to be successful in the long run is not to aim at being successful in the short run. I'll be buying some SBGL and FCX this week for sure.
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more, Chief. Glad to see someone scooping these up at dirt cheap prices. Buy when there's blood in the streets.
 
markmars said:
Grid lock is good for the market, the less the government is involved the better off we are in investing. Coolidge had it right!
Click to expand...

That may be true, but debt limit delays and govt shutdowns have hurt the markets every time. Gridlock and shutdowns are not synonymous -- This isn't political; just that it's not a bad idea to be aware of this as an investor is all I'm saying.
 
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