MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[nnuut]

Ditto the above.... I hope yesterday was a great day...seeing that nnuut did a double for you, surely it was !!

Just wanted to make sure I didn't miss one!:laugh::blink:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thank you everyone for all the birthday wishes. Had a great time in Oregon. Travelled to Crater Lake, the Columbia River Gorge, Portland, McMinnville, Tillamook, and Ashland. It was a week long adventure, with so much to see and do. Couldn't do it all, so we'll have to go back again. Good to be back home though.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Decided to move to a 50/50 S/I position today. Took a look at the markets, and decided that it appears many of the indices are looking like they may have bottomed in the short term, and are turning back up. Also, a lot of the stocks I follow are also looking stronger, so I'm feeling good about getting back in at this point. Of course, please don't follow my advice, as I have been the ultimate contrarian indicator this year. Bah, humbug. :suspicious:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

For those that are interested, the NUGT/DUST system had a turning point on Aug 27 to DUST. I believe the metals had just gone too far too fast, and had become overbought. The RSI on SLV and AGQ had gone well into the 80's, which is very extreme. GLD was also getting overbought. The $HUI, GDX, and GDXJ had all had a nice run up, and were due for a short term pull-back, so we're getting one now.

My personal opinion, if you're holding NUGT, I wouldn't want to sell for a loss here. Sentiment is likely to change again, and the pendulum will swing the other way, eventually. The Stoch is still falling, so we're likely to have continued weakness for at least a little while longer.

Just keep in mind... the lower BB is near 57. If you can't stomach a fall that far, then get out now. These ETF's are not for the faint of heart.

 

[Dutchy]

MrJohnRoss...For those that are interested, the NUGT/DUST system had a turning point on Aug 27 to DUST. I believe the metals had just gone too far too fast, and had become overbought. The RSI on SLV and AGQ had gone well into the 80's, which is very extreme. GLD was also getting overbought. The $HUI, GDX, and GDXJ had all had a nice run up, and were due for a short term pull-back, so we're getting one now.

My personal opinion, if you're holding NUGT, I wouldn't want to sell for a loss here. Sentiment is likely to change again, and the pendulum will swing the other way, eventually. The Stoch is still falling, so we're likely to have continued weakness for at least a little while longer.

Just keep in mind... the lower BB is near 57. If you can't stomach a fall that far, then get out now. These ETF's are not for the faint of heart.

Welcome back and thanks for your comments. From what I see checking NUGT chatter, there is some buying interest at these levels and with the Syria strike pending a reversal may come. Also NUGT swung from approx. 55 to 106 from 8/8 to 8/27, during 13 trading days confirming the volatility.. I'm holding here and read the 96 area would be a good top point. I'm worried about the "bleed" in this fund though. I've read you should not hold these Inverse ETFs more than about 10 days, at the longest, because of "bleed" ...

Your thoughts ? Thanks.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Welcome back and thanks for your comments. From what I see checking NUGT chatter, there is some buying interest at these levels and with the Syria strike pending a reversal may come. Also NUGT swung from approx. 55 to 106 from 8/8 to 8/27, during 13 trading days confirming the volatility.. I'm holding here and read the 96 area would be a good top point. I'm worried about the "bleed" in this fund though. I've read you should not hold these Inverse ETFs more than about 10 days, at the longest, because of "bleed" ...

Your thoughts ? Thanks.

That's probably pretty good "professional advice". However, I'm going to have to disagree. Let me give you an example to illustrate my point.

If you had a crystal ball on the markets, you could have bought DUST last year (9/21/12) at the closing price of 11.31. Had you then held it until it's recent high (6/26/13), you could have sold it at the closing price of 82.85. That's a gain of +632.5% in just over 9 months.

If you would have taken the "professional advice", and sold it after 10 trading days, you would have sold at 11.77, and only gotten a return of +4.1%.

I don't know about you, but I'd prefer the +632% return vs the +4% return.

In other words, the internal costs of the ETF are already in the share price. What you see is what you get.

That being said, take a look at UVXY, the $VIX short term futures ETF. The $VIX has had some wild swings in the last year, but has basically has gone sideways. However, in the last year, UVXY has gone from 495 to it's recent close of 43.12, a loss of -91.3%! Talk about internal bleeding! I'd stay away from UVXY unless you're absolutely positive the $VIX is going to go higher in the next few days!

BTW, if anyone has a different opinion on this, please show the error in my thinking.

Hope that helps, Dutchy!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

JNJ looks like it's formed a bottom and is turning higher. The daily Stoch crossed the 20 line, which many consider a buy signal. If it only gets back up to it's old high, that's a +7% gain from here. And that's not counting the nice dividend.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The markets continue to look like they're wanting to climb this wall of worry. Despite all the sudden swings, both down and up, the current short term trend still looks like it's wanting to move higher. Also, despite the fact that Sept is statistically the worst month of the year for the markets, I'm planning to stay invested as long as the technicals continue to look positive.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The NUGT/DUST system is still favoring DUST, despite today's loss (so far) for DUST. However, momentum appears to be slowing, which could mean a change could be in the cards in the next few days. Both gold and silver are still correcting from their overbought conditions, so I would expect NUGT to head back up when gold and silver form a basing pattern and start to move higher.

 

[weatherweenie]

The markets continue to look like they're wanting to climb this wall of worry. Despite all the sudden swings, both down and up, the current short term trend still looks like it's wanting to move higher. Also, despite the fact that Sept is statistically the worst month of the year for the markets, I'm planning to stay invested as long as the technicals continue to look positive.

Liking that we broke through 1660 on SP500. Hopefully we can close above 1660. Saw on the MB where someone posted that 5 of 6 systems they follow are now short. Have to love being contrary.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Liking that we broke through 1660 on SP500. Hopefully we can close above 1660. Saw on the MB where someone posted that 5 of 6 systems they follow are now short. Have to love being contrary.

Wow! 5 of 6 systems short?! I wouldn't want to be short here, but that's just me.

What I see in the chart below, is a fresh buy signal from the Stoch on Wed, PPO bottoming and moving higher, RSI was showing a mildly oversold condition and now heading higher, and the 5 DMA is now heading higher as well. Of couse, my track record this year sucks, so don't listen to me, but I can't help myself wanting to be in the market when I see so many positive technicals at this point. Yes, there is fear about war in Syria, but so far, we're climbing that wall of worry.

Would love to see the $SPX close above the 50 DMA, which is currently around 1666. We're only a couple of points away, so we may see that in the very near future.

 

[weatherweenie]

Of couse, my track record this year sucks, so don't listen to me

I'm still holding AGQ

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I'm still holding AGQ

Me too. It had a nice run last month, but got a little too hot, so not surprised to see it cool down before heading back up. Here's what I'm looking at...



The first target I'm looking for will be the 60 area. Then, I'll be looking for the 70-75 area. It may not get back up to the 127 area or the 191 area any time soon (probably a couple of years), but won't THAT be nice!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Me too. It had a nice run last month, but got a little too hot, so not surprised to see it cool down before heading back up. Here's what I'm looking at...

View attachment 25124

The first target I'm looking for will be the 60 area. Then, I'll be looking for the 70-75 area. It may not get back up to the 127 area or the 191 area any time soon (probably a couple of years), but won't THAT be nice!

Doing some quick calculations for symmetrical time lines for the above targets yields the following dates:

Target 1: $60.63 is 3/31/14.
Target 2: $74.65 is 9/20/14.
Target 3: $127 is 5/3/15.
Target 4: $191 is 8/23/15.

 

[weatherweenie]

Doing some quick calculations for symmetrical time lines for the above targets yields the following dates:

Target 1: $60.63 is 3/31/14.
Target 2: $74.65 is 9/20/14.
Target 3: $127 is 5/3/15.
Target 4: $191 is 8/23/15.

Those would be nice. Not counting on it, but nice to dream about. Then again, if we get drawn into another war/military action that nobody wants, your targets could happen.

 

[Dutchy]

MrJohnRoss...That's probably pretty good "professional advice". However, I'm going to have to disagree. Let me give you an example to illustrate my point.

If you had a crystal ball on the markets, you could have bought DUST last year (9/21/12) at the closing price of 11.31. Had you then held it until it's recent high (6/26/13), you could have sold it at the closing price of 82.85. That's a gain of +632.5% in just over 9 months.

If you would have taken the "professional advice", and sold it after 10 trading days, you would have sold at 11.77, and only gotten a return of +4.1%.

I don't know about you, but I'd prefer the +632% return vs the +4% return.

In other words, the internal costs of the ETF are already in the share price. What you see is what you get.

That being said, take a look at UVXY, the $VIX short term futures ETF. The $VIX has had some wild swings in the last year, but has basically has gone sideways. However, in the last year, UVXY has gone from 495 to it's recent close of 43.12, a loss of -91.3%! Talk about internal bleeding! I'd stay away from UVXY unless you're absolutely positive the $VIX is going to go higher in the next few days!

BTW, if anyone has a different opinion on this, please show the error in my thinking.

Hope that helps, Dutchy!

Thanks for your reply, just returned from the "Windy City", was visiting Dad since Thursday. I reviewed the thread and have to continue to hold my NUGT hoping that it is basing and will turn up soon. Also holding SPXL and watching for a close above 1663 area. CoolHand says FED liquidity is increasing and that should support the Markets despite Syria uncertainty. The Syria vote is looking like it will fail in the House, I would think that would boost the Market ?? Here's to a good week !!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks for your reply, just returned from the "Windy City", was visiting Dad since Thursday. I reviewed the thread and have to continue to hold my NUGT hoping that it is basing and will turn up soon. Also holding SPXL and watching for a close above 1663 area. CoolHand says FED liquidity is increasing and that should support the Markets despite Syria uncertainty. The Syria vote is looking like it will fail in the House, I would think that would boost the Market ?? Here's to a good week !!

The NUGT/DUST system is still holding DUST. Looks like momentum may be waning a bit, although a close above the previous high of 29.29 would suggest higher prices ahead. If we fail to break that level, I would expect the system to switch to NUGT. DUST is currently near the 28.30 area, so it will be interesting to see what happens here in the next few days.

The $SPX looks like it's going to close above the 50 DMA for the first time in several weeks. That's definitely a plus for the markets. S Fund and I Fund are leading the pack again, which are good signs for continued market strength.

 

[Dutchy]

NUGT is selling off some, late day. Dust at 28.50, which is closing in on 29.29 which you said is bullish for DUST. I heard when oil prices start to wane, post Syria, NUGT/GDX heat up again, does that make sense ? Would a stop at about $70 be reasonable for NUGT? I would hate to sell at 70 though, a 33% loss, should probably just hold forever or until it reaches 90-95 range whenever that might be !!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

NUGT is selling off some, late day. Dust at 28.50, which is closing in on 29.29 which you said is bullish for DUST. I heard when oil prices start to wane, post Syria, NUGT/GDX heat up again, does that make sense ? Would a stop at about $70 be reasonable for NUGT? I would hate to sell at 70 though, a 33% loss, should probably just hold forever or until it reaches 90-95 range whenever that might be !!

No easy answers on what makes sense. I just watch the markets, and don't pay much attention to the wagging tongues.

Personally, I don't like to use hard stops. They guarantee a loss. I prefer mental stops, unless you're going to be away from your trading desk for long periods of time. But everyone is different, so if you feel more comfortable stoppping out at 70, then by all means go for it.

For me, I know the tide comes in and the tide goes out, and I tend to wait for the markets to turn in my favor. If I've been on the wrong side of a trade for an extended period of time, I rarely like to sell for a loss unless I'm sure higher prices aren't going to happen. With NUGT, I think the odds are good that metals will eventually head higher, and the miners will follow suit.

 

[WhoDey]

I appreciate the conversation regarding NUGT/DUST. I have yet to trade these, but have been keeping an eye lately on NUGT.

For me, I know the tide comes in and the tide goes out, and I tend to wait for the markets to turn in my favor.

I've been trying to learn that bit of wisdom! It looks like NUGT is drawing close to offering an entry point, but patience is still required IMO.

Dutchy ... I've locked in more than my fair share of losses this year, so I feel the pain. I think I'd be inclined to hold a bit longer, but that's easy for me to say. Good luck.