mlk_man's account talk

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Here Rolo, come boy!!!!!!!!!! Got a stock pick for ya fella........... :l

 

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Wow, 323 posts!!! It's all MT's fault......................:shock:

 

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I sold my 50% S fund as of end of today, for a 2.38% gain. I dollar cost averaged some $ at a higher share price, prior to understanding that money goes into the G fund. Thanks MLK. I'm still holding onto my C fund (I'm still 50% C) until it hits .3 (+-.05) above 30 day average, right?

I'll track the averages, just please give me notice for the next "buy". Thanks

Joel

 

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By the way, the .3 above 30 day average for the C fund is: 11.89 and the fund is at 11.85 right now. Is this what you mean by the within +- .05 range for buying/selling? In other words, should I of sold and not split hairs on the price. Right now, at 11.85, it puts me up 2.24% since the 50% C buy. Thanks

Joel

 

[tsptalk]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Yeah that darn Tom and his election year stats for the month of September being a good month to be long vice the historical average of this as the worse month of all for the U.S. markets. Darn him!

OK, I'll bite. I assume that is sarcasm as Sepember is up 1.3% so far.

Darn Tom

 

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

By the way, the .3 above 30 day average for the C fund is: 11.89 and the fund is at 11.85 right now. Is this what you mean by the within +- .05 range for buying/selling? In other words, should I of sold and not split hairs on the price. Right now, at 11.85, it puts me up 2.24% since the 50% C buy. Thanks

Joel

Yepper Joel, you're right on. +/- .05. I typically get around a 4% return on each sell, but the market dropped a lot farther than I anticipated this time around. But hey, I'm happy with a 2.24% return in a little over a month's time.

I'm currentlly 100% G fund and I suggest the same for everyone else. The market may go up a bit more, but it may drop big time too. If it goes up, either won't go up much before we see a pullback, or it'll continue to uptrend and we can jump back in if that happens. Next week will tell the story. Our fast and intermediate moving averages continue to rise, so we'll see if that continues or not. I've only been keeping moving averages since June 18th, so it's tough to call just yet.

Typically, the market moves about 6-7% from it's low to it's high during one of these "dips". I try to get at least 4-5% of that and still avoid a lot of risk. Right now the S fund is up 7.5% from it's low of $11.87. One of the reasons i'm looking for another pull back unless we are indeed entering a bull market finally.

Like I said before, give me 4-5% four or five times a year and I'm happy. Especially in a bear market! My goal is still to average 20% every year. Right on track!

Currently my gains on 5 transactions this year are: 4.27%, 4.16%, 4.35%, 2.27%, and 2.42%. I also had one "loss" of .77% only because I "sold" my 50% C on July 23rd to go 100% S. I think some people overlook this when they change their allocations. You have to take into account that when you switch between funds, you're actually "selling" one fund to "purchase" another. Just thought I'd let everyone know because I'm trying to be as accurate as possible on my return %'s. Not trying to BS anyone. Say what MT? Just kidding...........

Your welcome for the help Joel. Let's hope it continues. :^

Yea as I walk through the valley of stocks, I shall fear no market......... :!:!

 

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Just sold rest of C fund effective the end of today. Now 100% G. I'll keep tracking the averages and lets keep the communication up! Thanks

Joel

 

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I have an update. For some reason, the tsp.gov website did not take my first transaction of selling the S fund a few days ago. I was fortunate to benefit from this mistake as the stock price rose higher the next couple of days. I'm now 100% G effective the end of yesterday (I got my confirm e-mail)

My first MLK guided transaction was: S fund +2.94%, C fund +2.76%. This was buying on July 22nd and selling September 10th. Thanks MLK! I noticed the averages are way over the 30 day- avearage. What happens if they continue to go up, up, up. How do we handle this? We certainly don't want to buy "high" and have it drop, but we don't want to miss a 10-20% uptrend either. What is your take on that and what have you done in the past.

By the way, my private IRA money, going short with "you know who", is down 14% (with margin) since April 30th. I have lost over 20% of my principle with them since March, ouch! I don't want to sell for a loss, so right now it is on "paper".

Joel

 

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mlk_man wrote:

jgpalmerdds wrote:

By the way, the .3 above 30 day average for the C fund is: 11.89 and the fund is at 11.85 right now. Is this what you mean by the within +- .05 range for buying/selling? In other words, should I of sold and not split hairs on the price. Right now, at 11.85, it puts me up 2.24% since the 50% C buy. Thanks

Joel

Yepper Joel, you're right on. +/- .05. I typically get around a 4% return on each sell, but the market dropped a lot farther than I anticipated this time around. But hey, I'm happy with a 2.24% return in a little over a month's time.

I'm currentlly 100% G fund and I suggest the same for everyone else. The market may go up a bit more, but it may drop big time too. If it goes up, either won't go up much before we see a pullback, or it'll continue to uptrend and we can jump back in if that happens. Next week will tell the story. Our fast and intermediate moving averages continue to rise, so we'll see if that continues or not. I've only been keeping moving averages since June 18th, so it's tough to call just yet.

Typically, the market moves about 6-7% from it's low to it's high during one of these "dips". I try to get at least 4-5% of that and still avoid a lot of risk. Right now the S fund is up 7.5% from it's low of $11.87. One of the reasons i'm looking for another pull back unless we are indeed entering a bull market finally.

Like I said before, give me 4-5% four or five times a year and I'm happy. Especially in a bear market! My goal is still to average 20% every year. Right on track!

Currently my gains on 5 transactions this year are: 4.27%, 4.16%, 4.35%, 2.27%, and 2.42%. I also had one "loss" of .77% only because I "sold" my 50% C on July 23rd to go 100% S. I think some people overlook this when they change their allocations. You have to take into account that when you switch between funds, you're actually "selling" one fund to "purchase" another. Just thought I'd let everyone know because I'm trying to be as accurate as possible on my return %'s. Not trying to BS anyone. Say what MT? Just kidding...........

Your welcome for the help Joel. Let's hope it continues. :^

Yea as I walk through the valley of stocks, I shall fear no market......... :!:!

Milk,

You picked one of the best weeks in the indexes to be fully invested in the G fund.

Keep up the great work!

:^ My TSP fund was up $2151 this week...darn I could of been up $112 if I was in the G fund with you Milk. I hate when I miss out on those great gains .

Joel bad day to sell. 67% of the time the market is up the Monday prior to triple witching.

Have a great week.

I have made a allocation change effective Monday but I will let Milk figure it out.

MT

 

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Tom,

This hope the rally continues on Monday!

Hope your wife is well.

MT



tsptalk wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:

Yeah that darn Tom and his election year stats for the month of September being a good month to be long vice the historical average of this as the worse month of all for the U.S. markets. Darn him!

OK, I'll bite. I assume that is sarcasm as Sepember is up 1.3% so far.

Darn Tom

 

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Joel,

What is the holdings of your IRA? Who did you short with? Right now short the airlines and that is iffy at best with oil on a yo yo.

Hey this is a learning experience. I know some folks that are down over 40% this year. One person I know has gone from $120K to $68K in seven months. She soldhere Intel and HP holdings inthe firstweek of August because she heard the August and September swoon adage. :s.

MT



jgpalmerdds wrote:

I have an update. For some reason, the tsp.gov website did not take my first transaction of selling the S fund a few days ago. I was fortunate to benefit from this mistake as the stock price rose higher the next couple of days. I'm now 100% G effective the end of yesterday (I got my confirm e-mail)

My first MLK guided transaction was: S fund +2.94%, C fund +2.76%. This was buying on July 22nd and selling September 10th. Thanks MLK! I noticed the averages are way over the 30 day- avearage. What happens if they continue to go up, up, up. How do we handle this? We certainly don't want to buy "high" and have it drop, but we don't want to miss a 10-20% uptrend either. What is your take on that and what have you done in the past.

By the way, my private IRA money, going short with "you know who", is down 14% (with margin) since April 30th. I have lost over 20% of my principle with them since March, ouch! I don't want to sell for a loss, so right now it is on "paper".

Joel

 

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Private IRA money is in mutual funds (inverse, right now) following the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S and P. I don't invest in individual stocks.

By the way, lay off MLK, he and I would like something that takes 5 minutes/day to deal with, and 20% per year is not a bad goal, with him attaining it most of the time.

We are not day traders, day to day news and info market watchers (at least I'm not). Even the trend service I'm with takes five minutes/week (although I'm not impressed with it so far, for the first 5 months) You have posted over 170 timesin 2 1/2 weeks since youhave becomea member, which seems to me you are constantly looking at this stuff and trying to determineyour direction based on technicals, trends, news, info and past statistics. What percent return is enough? I know that if I hit 20%, even 15% a year I hit my retirement goals. Isn't that what it is all about? In the mean time, I live my life, and I'm not addicted to the market. You keep your face in aBarrons and Wall Street Journal, I'll spend time with my kids. Take care.

 

[FundSurfer]

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mlk_man wrote:

I'm currentlly 100% G fund and I suggest the same for everyone else. The market may go up a bit more, but it may drop big time too. If it goes up, either won't go up much before we see a pullback, or it'll continue to uptrend and we can jump back in if that happens. Next week will tell the story. Our fast and intermediate moving averages continue to rise, so we'll see if that continues or not. I've only been keeping moving averages since June 18th, so it's tough to call just yet.

I've been playing with spreadsheets and teaching myself how to track gains and losses with Tom's spreadsheet. I started adding a wrinkle that lets me back test systems. I started with yours since yours looked the easiest to codify. I started with the trend line triggers you use for buying and selling but somewhere I missed how you would decide to jump back in with an uptrending market. I ask this because backtesting your system showed several occasions where your system misses big moves in uptrending market. How do you think you would decide the market is uptrending and decide to get back in and then how would you decide to sell?

Your system definitely does well in a volitile market as you have noted previously but has problems with long moves. Take the recent downtrend you road for a long while before it turned around. If the trend had been reversed you would have watched the market sail way past your sell point. (Too bad we don't have a short fund...)

 

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

Private IRA money is in mutual funds (inverse, right now) following the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S and P. I don't invest in individual stocks.

By the way, lay off MLK, he and I would like something that takes 5 minutes/day to deal with, and 20% per year is not a bad goal, with him attaining it most of the time.

We are not day traders, day to day news and info market watchers (at least I'm not). Even the trend service I'm with takes five minutes/week (although I'm not impressed with it so far, for the first 5 months) You have posted over 170 timesin 2 1/2 weeks since youhave becomea member, which seems to me you are constantly looking at this stuff and trying to determineyour direction based on technicals, trends, news, info and past statistics. What percent return is enough? I know that if I hit 20%, even 15% a year I hit my retirement goals. Isn't that what it is all about? In the mean time, I live my life, and I'm not addicted to the market. You keep your face in aBarrons and Wall Street Journal, I'll spend time with my kids. Take care.

Joel,

You need to be more diverisfied. Your TSP should be your index mix and maybe in your IRA own things that augment the index funds. Oh yeah, is this a ROTH or a IRA? I meant to ask that earlier. What is your time horizon?

I only sleep about three hours a day. I love the market and I love investing.

If it is in Barrons and Wall Street Journal it is all ready to late to act.

15-20% a year is to optimistic if you do not want to spend time researching and learning. Just like anything in life - you get out what you put in. I plan on retiring when I am 52 and I know if I take action now I will have more time for other things later.

This year my energy holdingsare up 32%, REITs up 22% and Austria EFT is up 29%. Which are my main longs besides Bank of America, Starbucks, FEDEX andHarley Davidson. I guess the reason I am on this board is there is not to many ideas out there right now. When things become better I will not be on here.

Take care! MT

 

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

Private IRA money is in mutual funds (inverse, right now) following the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S and P. I don't invest in individual stocks.

By the way, lay off MLK, he and I would like something that takes 5 minutes/day to deal with, and 20% per year is not a bad goal, with him attaining it most of the time.

We are not day traders, day to day news and info market watchers (at least I'm not). Even the trend service I'm with takes five minutes/week (although I'm not impressed with it so far, for the first 5 months) You have posted over 170 timesin 2 1/2 weeks since youhave becomea member, which seems to me you are constantly looking at this stuff and trying to determineyour direction based on technicals, trends, news, info and past statistics. What percent return is enough? I know that if I hit 20%, even 15% a year I hit my retirement goals. Isn't that what it is all about? In the mean time, I live my life, and I'm not addicted to the market. You keep your face in aBarrons and Wall Street Journal, I'll spend time with my kids. Take care.

 

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

Private IRA money is in mutual funds (inverse, right now) following the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S and P. I don't invest in individual stocks.

By the way, lay off MLK, he and I would like something that takes 5 minutes/day to deal with, and 20% per year is not a bad goal, with him attaining it most of the time.

We are not day traders, day to day news and info market watchers (at least I'm not). Even the trend service I'm with takes five minutes/week (although I'm not impressed with it so far, for the first 5 months) You have posted over 170 timesin 2 1/2 weeks since youhave becomea member, which seems to me you are constantly looking at this stuff and trying to determineyour direction based on technicals, trends, news, info and past statistics. What percent return is enough? I know that if I hit 20%, even 15% a year I hit my retirement goals. Isn't that what it is all about? In the mean time, I live my life, and I'm not addicted to the market. You keep your face in aBarrons and Wall Street Journal, I'll spend time with my kids. Take care.

Milk is all mine. I am going to learn him! MT

 

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

By the way, lay off MLK, he and I would like something that takes 5 minutes/day to deal with, and 20% per year is not a bad goal, with him attaining it most of the time.

We are not day traders, day to day news and info market watchers (at least I'm not). Even the trend service I'm with takes five minutes/week (although I'm not impressed with it so far, for the first 5 months) You have posted over 170 timesin 2 1/2 weeks since youhave becomea member, which seems to me you are constantly looking at this stuff and trying to determineyour direction based on technicals, trends, news, info and past statistics. What percent return is enough? I know that if I hit 20%, even 15% a year I hit my retirement goals. Isn't that what it is all about? In the mean time, I live my life, and I'm not addicted to the market. You keep your face in aBarrons and Wall Street Journal, I'll spend time with my kids. Take care.

Okay, where do I start? First I'll start with Joel. Thank you for the kind words. Nice to be appreciated! At least someone "gets" what I'm trying to do. My goal is and always has been to make 20% a year with the "least" amount of effort and risk. I'm right on track for this year.

I don't believe this site was started to help people make daily trades. I think it was started because Tom realizes that with just a "few" trades a year, one can greatlyimprove their gains and minimize losses.

As I've said before, these "dips" we get usually rally 6-7% off their lows. I shoot to get 4-5% of that. I'm not looking to get in right at the bottom, or out right at the top. I'll leave that to MT, he seems to know "exactly" when to get in and out if you listen to him. Oh, except of course the week of Aug 30th to Sept. 3rd. What happened MT, crystal ball fog up? Oh that's right, you where "sick".

Like I said last week, this week will be the big test for market. If we keep going up, then I'll say the market is now "bullish" and get back in.

 

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FundSurfer wrote:

I've been playing with spreadsheets and teaching myself how to track gains and losses with Tom's spreadsheet. I started adding a wrinkle that lets me back test systems. I started with yours since yours looked the easiest to codify. I started with the trend line triggers you use for buying and selling but somewhere I missed how you would decide to jump back in with an uptrending market. I ask this because backtesting your system showed several occasions where your system misses big moves in uptrending market. How do you think you would decide the market is uptrending and decide to get back in and then how would you decide to sell?

Your system definitely does well in a volitile market as you have noted previously but has problems with long moves. Take the recent downtrend you road for a long while before it turned around. If the trend had been reversed you would have watched the market sail way past your sell point. (Too bad we don't have a short fund...)

I've only been using my "system" since the beginning of the year so I don't have all the answers just yet. You have to watch your moving averages to decide if the market is uptrending, downtrending, or moving sideways. Currently fast and intermediate moving averages are trending up. Slow moving averages are still trending down and have been since about July 1st. Are we in a prolonged rally? Maybe, maybe not. If the slow moving averages begin to rise, I'd say yes. Just a little too early for me to jump back in just yet. This week should tell.

 

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

.

By the way, my private IRA money, going short with "you know who", is down 14% (with margin) since April 30th. I have lost over 20% of my principle with them since March, ouch! I don't want to sell for a loss, so right now it is on "paper".

Joel

Is this using the inverse funds? If you are going to use them I think I would track either 3-day or 5-day moving averages and go with which ever direction they are trending. The slow and intermediate averages are trending up, so I wouldn't be in the inverse funds right now.

Remember my "system" doesn't look to buy and sell right at highs or lows, but close enough to make nice gains. The market may continue to rise or drop for a week or two or maybe even three. It also might go up and down from day to day. That's why I think moving averages are your best bet with the inverse funds.

Good luck,

Mike

I have Excel charts for 5-day, 21-day, and 63-day moving averages. Just started tracking 3-day. If you want them, e-mail me at mlk_man@yahoo.com and I'll send them to ya.

 

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MarketTimer wrote:

Milk is all mine. I am going to learn him! MT

As I told the guy that hit on me at the park Sat., you've got nothing I want!!!!