mlk_man's account talk

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mlk_man wrote:

Looks like I'll be using 3-day moving averages for my signal now instead of 63-day.

May have switched "too soon". If I was still using 63-day moving averages, we would of had our "sell" signal after Fridays close for the S fund. Could of had a little more profit. I'll continue to track each, 30-day and 63-day, to determine which is best for what I'm doing.

As far as C and I funds, they still have a ways to go before our 63-day moving averages give us a "sell" signal. However, if using 30-day, we'd have a "sell" signal after Friday's close.

 

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My Money is in a Roth IRA, in inverse funds, and I'm to the point of being down 15%, and if I sell, it is a loss. Of course, if it goes down even more (bull market rise), it is more loss. I'm totally trusting in the reputation of this service, that they know what they are talking about. If the market dives and I get some principal back, I may get out. The last time I tried 10 day moving averages, going against their "signal)I was on the wrong side of the trend and lost 8% (with margin) in 7 days!! Kind of confusing right now. At least my principal was not that high to begin with, so dollar wise, the losses are not that large. Using 3-5 day moving averages would take me in and out of the funds every couple of days. I would have to pick a side, long or short if that were the case. I'm not sure if I'm willing to do that, because unlike MT, I enjoy my sleep! The question is: Once you hit 52 MT, will you stop, or is it an addiction? Later.

Joel

 

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Could someone explain to me what "triple witching" is? When does it happen and what significance does it have? From the info here, it sounds like it is good to be in the week before, and bad the week after, but what about during? Just wondering

Joel

 

[tsptalk]

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

Could someone explain to me what "triple witching" is? When does it happen and what significance does it have? From the info here, it sounds like it is good to be in the week before, and bad the week after, but what about during? Just wondering

The week before options expiration weeks is the week during. Options expire on the 3rd Friday of the month (actually Saturday but you can't trade on Saturday) and triple witching is just a month where several options and futures contract expire. They are in March, June, September and December. The market tends to be volatile leading up to that Friday.

 

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

My Money is in a Roth IRA, in inverse funds, and I'm to the point of being down 15%, and if I sell, it is a loss. Of course, if it goes down even more (bull market rise), it is more loss. I'm totally trusting in the reputation of this service, that they know what they are talking about. If the market dives and I get some principal back, I may get out. The last time I tried 10 day moving averages, going against their "signal)I was on the wrong side of the trend and lost 8% (with margin) in 7 days!! Kind of confusing right now. At least my principal was not that high to begin with, so dollar wise, the losses are not that large. Using 3-5 day moving averages would take me in and out of the funds every couple of days. I would have to pick a side, long or short if that were the case. I'm not sure if I'm willing to do that, because unlike MT, I enjoy my sleep! The question is: Once you hit 52 MT, will you stop, or is it an addiction? Later.

Joel

Hey Joel, I've been thinking about your situation with your IRA and think I may have come up with something. Does it take 3 days to clear your mutual funds,or are these ETF's I forget,when you switch or do they clear every day?

Be that as it may, I was looking at my 5-day moving averages, I have this if you want it, seems to me that if you follow this data and you get 3 consecutive up days, buy into the fund that tracks small caps, or S & P 500, whichever your more comfortable with. Then if get 3 consecutive down days, once again I'm talking about your 5-day moving average, switch over to the inverse fund. If you had been following this plan, there was only one time since June 18th, when I started tracking the averages, that you would of been "whipsawed" in the S & P and lost a little money but you would quickly have gotten it back. . Following small caps, S fund, you wouldn't of lost anything.This way you don't have to move everything around everyday.

3-day moving averages might work even better and help to avoid a couple more days of losses, but I just started tracking this average. The market tends to "trend" with an up or down day thrown into the mix once in awhile, so you shouldn't have to trade everyday.

Take a look and tell me what you think. I'm going to start an account on paper so I can track it and see how it works.

Hope I've helped. Good Luck!

Mike

 

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It takes three days to clear the mutual funds. I'm not quite following your plan for the IRAso I will e-mail you so you can send me your charts. Thanks,

Joel

 

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

It takes three days to clear the mutual funds. I'm not quite following your plan for the IRAso I will e-mail you so you can send me your charts. Thanks,

Joel

I think that should be ok. I was thinking about this again last night laying in bed, I do my best work in bed. If you follow your 5-day moving average and it's trending up, then one day it goes down, go to cash or some "safe" fund. Wait a couple days and see which way the average goes. If stays down, go to the inverse funds. If it goes back up, go to the fund that tracks whichever index you feel comfortable with.

Looking back to June 18th, this should work. Like I said, I'm doing it on paper now, will let everyone know my progress in a month or two.

 

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MarketTimer wrote:

Joel,

In my opinion taking Milk's advice of buying on the next big down day will be a big mistake. The next big down day I will be bailing.

Anyone else have thoughts on this issue???

I believe there will be a rally this afternoon. Right now everyone is afraid of pulling the trigger in case Mr Greenspan tries to harpoon Bush II like he did Bush I.

Good luck!

MT always right? I think not. C fund dropped 5 cents, S fund 8 cents. Nice call....

 

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mlk_man wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:

Joel,

In my opinion taking Milk's advice of buying on the next big down day will be a big mistake. The next big down day I will be bailing.

Anyone else have thoughts on this issue???

I believe there will be a rally this afternoon. Right now everyone is afraid of pulling the trigger in case Mr Greenspan tries to harpoon Bush II like he did Bush I.

Good luck!

MT always right? I think not. C fund dropped 5 cents, S fund 8 cents. Nice call....

Milk,

This was for Sep. I would say buying into to this sell off will be a mistake (maybe it is good we can not go G to stock funds right now). So I bailed the day before the sell off. :^

The big Greenspan rally day. He said everything was great (at 1030) and the soft patch is over and that the economy had found traction (remember?) - the dow went from -30 to postive 28. Then that afternoon the Beige Book (that is issued by the fed- his office)came out of 2pm pretty much showed the soft patch was not over and was growing strength and the market sold off on the true noise. I actually said this may be a back scratch deal. It looks like it to me. Why would he say everything is going great during the testimony?

X files stuff I think I called it.

MT

 

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Okay all, I'm outta here. MT you may have my board.

I've developed a new system which when I back tested it, I believe affords the opportunity to profit over 75% gains every year in a Roth, traditiona IRA, or regular investment account. I have only back-tested it for 3 months right now. It's up 24.28% for that time period. When I get time I'll go back the whole year. If you would like to know more, just send me an e-mail. I'll send you my system plus my spreadsheet that I back-tested it on. My sole intention of sharing my systems is to help others.

Sorry MT, not you. You don't like to share anyway correct?

I have already given this to jgpalmerdds. Maybe he'll be nice enough to let you know what he thinks of the system.

If market-timer leaves, please let me know. I'll come back and let everyone know about it.

Good luck all, taking my football and going home............:u

Mike aka M_M

 

[FundSurfer]

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Milk....Just a note about your system. I have noticed that your gut is pretty good and a large part of your system. Looking at your posted trades versus what your system said you did well buy selling a little early a couple times and holding on a little longer a couple times. So congrats on the great timing.

I did notice that you are saying what you are doing a little wrong. You are using the buy signal from the average and then setting a target that day of .3 above that days index value. You are not really looking at the moving average from that point on for the sell signal but rather setting the sell target based on your purchase price. This strategy does much better than watching the average as you go along... (I back tested the other because I miss understood what you were doing and is actually did a little worse than the index did.)

Anyway, I've been looking at a signal for tracking the trending of the market. Been using a5 day averagetrend and it has done OK but not as well as your 'gut'. It actually looks like once you get past your sell point you bail quickly if either the market bumps up quickly or has a couple days of slight loss??

Are you looking at the graphs of the trend lines and looking for changes in direction?

I'm actually watching the market and hoping for uptrend to see when your "gut" says to get back in since I think we will see an uptrend that doesn't back track to your buy signal...maybe it will...but I hope not just to see what your 'gut' does.

My suggestion on MT is to just ignore him. If he does post his moves prior to 11 am and shows a track record then we can listen to him and see if there is any method to his madness... Right now he has less than 1 month of moves and by my calcs is doing worse than 100% C but a little better than 100% G. He also doesn't post his moves but rather e-mails Tom... wink wink

 

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FundSurfer wrote:

Milk....Just a note about your system. I have noticed that your gut is pretty good and a large part of your system. Looking at your posted trades versus what your system said you did well buy selling a little early a couple times and holding on a little longer a couple times. So congrats on the great timing.

I did notice that you are saying what you are doing a little wrong. You are using the buy signal from the average and then setting a target that day of .3 above that days index value. You are not really looking at the moving average from that point on for the sell signal but rather setting the sell target based on your purchase price. This strategy does much better than watching the average as you go along... (I back tested the other because I miss understood what you were doing and is actually did a little worse than the index did.)

Anyway, I've been looking at a signal for tracking the trending of the market. Been using a5 day averagetrend and it has done OK but not as well as your 'gut'. It actually looks like once you get past your sell point you bail quickly if either the market bumps up quickly or has a couple days of slight loss??

Are you looking at the graphs of the trend lines and looking for changes in direction?

I'm actually watching the market and hoping for uptrend to see when your "gut" says to get back in since I think we will see an uptrend that doesn't back track to your buy signal...maybe it will...but I hope not just to see what your 'gut' does.

My suggestion on MT is to just ignore him. If he does post his moves prior to 11 am and shows a track record then we can listen to him and see if there is any method to his madness... Right now he has less than 1 month of moves and by my calcs is doing worse than 100% C but a little better than 100% G. He also doesn't post his moves but rather e-mails Tom... wink wink

Sufer,

MT was 50% I fund when it went from 13.15 to 13.24 and 100% I fund when it went 13.24 to 13.43. Then bailed the day prior to a massive drop. If that is madness...sign me up. Not sure how calcs MT moves but your calc needs new batteries.

I wishMT would return to the board...because it is very dead now.

If you followed mike then you would of went 10.54 to 10.55 per share in the G fund. With him all I see is up 16.52% and up 18.55% for the year. Seems to me his calc needs fresh batteries also.

It is said that poor investors overstate their gains.

 

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mlk_man wrote:

Okay all, "tweaking" my "system" again. Sorry, lol. Not making a move right now, still 100% S, just wanted to explain what I'm gonna do when I do move so it can soak in.

I'm going to add "dollar cost averaging" to the mix. This is sort of what I did last time I had a "buy" signal. On July 16th I got a "buy" signal for the S at $12.65 so I went 50% S effective July 17th. (I was already 100% C at the time). As we know, prices continued to fall. On July 23rd I decided to go 100% S effective July 24th. This means I was able to "buy" S at $12.18 for a "dollar cost average" per share of $12.41. This afforded me the opportunity to make more money.

That being said, I'm actually up for the month instead of being down. I'm still waiting for another "sell" signal. If I was doing 30-day moving averages instead of 60-day, I'd have a "sell" signal now at $12.48. But, my 60-day signal is $12.80 right now so I'm sticking to it. Will probably drop more in the coming days because we are losing those big days in June.

So my system now includes 4 basic strategies:

1) my origanal idea of buying at 20centsunder the 60-day moving average and selling at30 cents over(unless we are in a down-trending market, as we have been, then the concept is inverted. ( I may end up changing this to a % rather than an actual price at some point something like 2.5% instead of 30 cents, and 1.5% instead of 20cents)

2)Follow 5-day(fast), 21-day(intermediate), and 63-day(slow) moving averages. The fast moving average for the S fund was quickly heading back up to the slow average but has now leveled off a bit. Scares me a little bit.

3)"Dollar cost averaging". I explained this earlier and I believe it may afford me the opportunity to make even more money.

4) Average market sentiment. You have to pay attention to things happening around you. Though most of the time I don't listen. But, ifsomeone blew up the RNC, would you stay in the market?

That's it. Just wanted to let whoever follows this know what I'm going to be doing so you can research it if you like.

Currently up 15.03% for the year. :^

Okay, several have e-mailed me to come back so I'm back if I can help anyone.

FundSurfer, I've quoted a previous post explaining my system again. Yes, my main indicator is using the .20 below and .30 above the 63-day moving average. Although I did recently switch to the 30-day moving average. This may prove not to be the better way to go however,, we'll see. The S fund has reached it's 63-day average but the C and I haven't. Could of may more profit by sticking with the S a bit longer, but I do like when all 3 funds reach my "high" sell point. Will C and I make it? They've hit their 30-day average, but not their 63-day average so like I said, we'll see.

I use the 3 moving averages, 5-day, 21-day, and 63-day to track the market to see if it is trending up or down. If trending up, I would just stay in and ride until we came to another "dip" and vice-versa in a downtrending market. We've gone pretty much sideways, or up and down if you will, all year so I haven't really had to rely on them that much.

I have made a couple of "gut" decisions and it has usually come back to bite in the butt. I try not to "gut" decisions anymore. Just stay with what's working.

As I said before, I have now devised a system that I believe will work better than this system and is much easier to track. No thinking what so ever basically. I have back-tracked it to the first of the year and if I had been following it, would be up 28.37% now instead of 16.81% Not bad, but if we had inverse funds like you can use in an IRA account, I'd be up 48.05% and if we had 2X funds like Profunds offers, I'd be up 97.1%.

I'm not giving this system out right now because I'm not done testing it and do not want to mislead anyone. It'll work fine with TSP right now I think but the main issue is working with the Profund mutual funds because they take 3 days to settle.

Hope I've cleared everything up for you.

Good luck,

M_M

 

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Harley wrote:

Sufer,

MT was 50% I fund when it went from 13.15 to 13.24 and 100% I fund when it went 13.24 to 13.43. Then bailed the day prior to a massive drop. If that is madness...sign me up. Not sure how calcs MT moves but your calc needs new batteries.

I wishMT would return to the board...because it is very dead now.

If you followed mike then you would of went 10.54 to 10.55 per share in the G fund. With him all I see is up 16.52% and up 18.55% for the year. Seems to me his calc needs fresh batteries also.

It is said that poor investors overstate their gains.

Yamaha, I only have a couple of things to say to you. The first being I prefer my "distractors" to call me Mr. M_M. Secondly, I believe I have been saying since Sept. 2nd that I am currently up 16.81% for the year.

Oh one more thing. Why did you decide to change nics MarketTimer?

Mr. M_M ( to you anyway)

 

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Harley wrote:

It is said that poor investors overstate their gains.

Mine are documented. Don't see yours anywhere MT.........:t

 

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Harley, I seached through the previous post for MarketTimer and they only go back a month. I must have missed the switch to 100% I somewhere. I don't have that switch. I'll be glad to amend my comments if you'll point me to the post. Be sure to look at when MT post versus when he says he makes his moves. I noticed on several occasions that he said he made moves the previous day but had not posted that day. It much easier to make the right moves that way .

MT, if your reading this...post your moves in MARKET TIMERS MOVES:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/448.html

That way it will be much easier to follow what you are doing and will kill the critisism. You are only getting critisized because you are giving MM a hard time we he has posted his moves and you haven't. I saw where you said you didn't want to post your moves because of the critisism it would bring but prefer to e-mail them to Tom. Tom on the other hand has shown a lot ofballs to keep his track record open to all after his stumble in July. We all make mistakes, the ultimate winners are those who learn from there mistakes and move on.

M_M I wasn't being critical but rather trying to better understand what you are doing. The biggest thing I had to understand about what you are doing had to do with how you set your sell target. Am I correct that your sell target is set based on the 30 day average the day you buy and doesn't change unless you pass the target in an uptrending market?

 

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FundSurfer wrote:

Harley, I seached through the previous post for MarketTimer and they only go back a month. I must have missed the switch to 100% I somewhere. I don't have that switch. I'll be glad to amend my comments if you'll point me to the post. Be sure to look at when MT post versus when he says he makes his moves. I noticed on several occasions that he said he made moves the previous day but had not posted that day. It much easier to make the right moves that way .

MT, if your reading this...post your moves in MARKET TIMERS MOVES:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/448.html

That way it will be much easier to follow what you are doing and will kill the critisism. You are only getting critisized because you are giving MM a hard time we he has posted his moves and you haven't. I saw where you said you didn't want to post your moves because of the critisism it would bring but prefer to e-mail them to Tom. Tom on the other hand has shown a lot ofballs to keep his track record open to all after his stumble in July. We all make mistakes, the ultimate winners are those who learn from there mistakes and move on.

M_M I wasn't being critical but rather trying to better understand what you are doing. The biggest thing I had to understand about what you are doing had to do with how you set your sell target. Am I correct that your sell target is set based on the 30 day average the day you buy and doesn't change unless you pass the target in an uptrending market?

I know you weren't being critical, I was just trying to explain. Yes my last transaction was based on the 30-day moving average which I just switched from using 63-day moving average. If the fund prices hit the high target with the 63-day moving average for all 3 stock funds, I may go back to 63-day moving average. Currently the 63-day moving average high target is C: 12.00. S: 12.88, and I: 13.49. Current prices per share are C: 11.86, S: 12.96 and I'm not sure about the I. So you see the S fund has reached it and then some, the C fund hasn't and I don't believe the I fund has either.

As I've stated before, during uptrending or sidetrending markets my high target is .30 above the moving average, and the low target is .20 below. During downtrending markets, this is inverted so that the high target is .20 above and the low is .30 below. This takes into account lower highs and lower lows. I'll probably change this to percentages as share prices reach higher averages. They will some day won't they? :XProbably use something like 2.5% above and 1.5% below.

The reason I've set these particular limits is because I've noticed that when we get these dips and peaks, we usually rebound 6-7 % from the low. I'm just trying to get 4-5% of that so as not to have too much risk. If you've seen my spreadsheet, sometimes you can get 4% gains in as little as a week, sometimes it takes a couple of months though.

Come to think of it, I may need to switch between 63-day and 30-day moving averages depending on if the market is going up, down, or sideways. Only been doing this for 9 months, so it's not perfected yet. Will take a couple of years and going through all types of market scenerios to do that.

Good Luck!

M_M

 

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mlk_man wrote:

As I said before, I have now devised a system that I believe will work better than this system and is much easier to track. No thinking what so ever basically. I have back-tracked it to the first of the year and if I had been following it, would be up 28.37% now instead of 16.81% Not bad, but if we had inverse funds like you can use in an IRA account, I'd be up 48.05% and if we had 2X funds like Profunds offers, I'd be up 97.1%.

I'm not giving this system out right now because I'm not done testing it and do not want to mislead anyone. It'll work fine with TSP right now I think but the main issue is working with the Profund mutual funds because they take 3 days to settle.

Hope I've cleared everything up for you.

Good luck,

M_M

I've hit a bit of snag with the inverse funds you can use in individual accounts. Seems the 3-day delay in waiting for the mutual funds to clear throws the system off. ETF's maybe? We'll see, but I won't get the tax advantage of a Roth then. I did see a report that leveraged ETF's may be around the corner. IF that happens, it may be worth it to pay taxes on it . Once again, we'll see.

 

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Harley wrote:

Sufer,

MT was 50% I fund when it went from 13.15 to 13.24 and 100% I fund when it went 13.24 to 13.43. Then bailed the day prior to a massive drop. If that is madness...sign me up. Not sure how calcs MT moves but your calc needs new batteries.

I wishMT would return to the board...because it is very dead now.

If you followed mike then you would of went 10.54 to 10.55 per share in the G fund. With him all I see is up 16.52% and up 18.55% for the year. Seems to me his calc needs fresh batteries also.

It is said that poor investors overstate their gains.

You are MT correct? Let me tell ya why I think this and why you're not as smart as you think.

In your first paragraph, you wrote "If that is madness...sign me up." Talking about how good MT's timing is. In your 2nd paragraph, you wrote "I wishMT would return to the board...because it is very dead now." You didn't wish him to return so you could track his timing, you wished he would return because it's "dead" in here now. Didn't MT say once he gets "bored" quickly when there is no commentary going on? Hmmm

"It is said that poor investors overstate their gains." That sure sounds like the way MT talks..............

Silly rabbit, tricks are for kids.................:t

 

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Okay, several have e-mailed me to come back so I'm back if I can help anyone.

I'm glad that you're back M_M.