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Timer wrote:
Timer wrote:
Thank you Timer. Let's get back to making money.
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mlk_man's account talk
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Have you been getting my e-mails? I know you are busy with your folks, etc. I just want to know if you are recieving them?
Joel
Have you been getting my e-mails? I know you are busy with your folks, etc. I just want to know if you are recieving them?
Joel
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jgpalmerdds wrote:
jgpalmerdds wrote:
Yepper, I sent ya one back this morning. I guess to your home e-mail.
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Rod,
MM and I are working on a new "system" using the 5 day average as well as some other indicators. I have backtested it for 1 1/2 years and itlooks promising. I would like to backtest it further into bear markets, and a more prolonged "bull" (longer than last year). The problem is that they only started keeping individual stock prices in June of last year for the TSP, so I have to go and get Willshire 4500 prices and EAFE prices. Do you know of any other mutual funds that track these prices? This new system will be designed to keep us in prolonged uptrends even past the .2-.3 above the moving average. That is the key. Buy before an uptrend, get out if it goes back down, and have a system that keeps you in if it stays up. We want it all, I guess.
Anyway, the system is very close to a "buy". Also, I don't really look at "historicals", but October, 5 out of the last 6 years has had big gains (even in the middle of bear markets). I may just be "in" for October based on history. Others can probably explain this phenomenon better than I. MM has been busy with his folks, and should be in full force tomorrow. I hope this helps.
Joel
PS- I like the Cross.
Rod,
MM and I are working on a new "system" using the 5 day average as well as some other indicators. I have backtested it for 1 1/2 years and itlooks promising. I would like to backtest it further into bear markets, and a more prolonged "bull" (longer than last year). The problem is that they only started keeping individual stock prices in June of last year for the TSP, so I have to go and get Willshire 4500 prices and EAFE prices. Do you know of any other mutual funds that track these prices? This new system will be designed to keep us in prolonged uptrends even past the .2-.3 above the moving average. That is the key. Buy before an uptrend, get out if it goes back down, and have a system that keeps you in if it stays up. We want it all, I guess.
Anyway, the system is very close to a "buy". Also, I don't really look at "historicals", but October, 5 out of the last 6 years has had big gains (even in the middle of bear markets). I may just be "in" for October based on history. Others can probably explain this phenomenon better than I. MM has been busy with his folks, and should be in full force tomorrow. I hope this helps.
Joel
PS- I like the Cross.
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jgpalmerdds wrote:
You may want to rethink your system. You were out of the market during a major gain. I would suggest you just follow my lower high, lower low chart. Fairly easy to see when the low goes below the last low is close to a time to buy and sell when the high is getting close to the previous high. Simple, clean and you make money!
MT
jgpalmerdds wrote:
Joel,
You may want to rethink your system. You were out of the market during a major gain. I would suggest you just follow my lower high, lower low chart. Fairly easy to see when the low goes below the last low is close to a time to buy and sell when the high is getting close to the previous high. Simple, clean and you make money!
MT
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MarketTimer wrote:
Joel, I have us close to a sell not a buy? Let me send you my new data. I've looked at yours and am a little confused by your data.
M_M
MarketTimer wrote:
There he goes again. That was my "old " system MT, please try to keep up! And please stop posting in my account, I'd appreciate it.
Joel, I have us close to a sell not a buy? Let me send you my new data. I've looked at yours and am a little confused by your data.
M_M
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For those folks who are welcome here, please ignore the riff-raff, they don't know when they aren't wanted.................Some type of "momma didn't love me enough as a child" syndrom I believe.
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Okay kids, I've completed my "new" system and after back-testing to the first of the year, I would be up 27.32% for the year. However, if you had a Roth account that let you invest in the Profunds 2X and 2X inverse funds, you would be up 112.29% at this point. :^
Because their are some people on this site that I don't care for now, I will not be posting my system. Sorry. I will however be posting "buy" and "sell" signals for both my old system and my new system. Please track my new system and keep your own record for a few months so that you know I'm not full of hot air like someone else I know on this site.
Proof is in the pudding as they say..........Can't wait to get my Roth account going now. :^
Okay kids, I've completed my "new" system and after back-testing to the first of the year, I would be up 27.32% for the year. However, if you had a Roth account that let you invest in the Profunds 2X and 2X inverse funds, you would be up 112.29% at this point. :^
Because their are some people on this site that I don't care for now, I will not be posting my system. Sorry. I will however be posting "buy" and "sell" signals for both my old system and my new system. Please track my new system and keep your own record for a few months so that you know I'm not full of hot air like someone else I know on this site.
Proof is in the pudding as they say..........Can't wait to get my Roth account going now. :^
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Hi Mlk,
I have been watching your old system and your allocation changes closely for a few weeks, and think it has a lot going for it. Clearly you've had good results over the past months. I would be very interested in learning at least a little about your new system, even if you are unwilling to go into great detail. I think I speak for others, especiallythoseof uswho are new to this, when I say that any info you would be willing to share would be greatly appreciated.
Dave
Hi Mlk,
I have been watching your old system and your allocation changes closely for a few weeks, and think it has a lot going for it. Clearly you've had good results over the past months. I would be very interested in learning at least a little about your new system, even if you are unwilling to go into great detail. I think I speak for others, especiallythoseof uswho are new to this, when I say that any info you would be willing to share would be greatly appreciated.
Dave
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Bad news on the new system front. My moving averages got all screwed up somehow, so it doesn't look as promising as I had hoped. I'm going to take a break from it for awhile because it's driving me nuts.
I'm currently working on a strategy with my old system that would keep us in longer during bull markets, and out during bear markets. I'm back-testing it now and will let you know the results later on.
Currently 100% G.
Mike
Bad news on the new system front. My moving averages got all screwed up somehow, so it doesn't look as promising as I had hoped. I'm going to take a break from it for awhile because it's driving me nuts.
I'm currently working on a strategy with my old system that would keep us in longer during bull markets, and out during bear markets. I'm back-testing it now and will let you know the results later on.
Currently 100% G.
Mike
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MM,
I agree with you, all these numbers are driving me nuts as well. We need something that works in long uptrends, long downtrends, and markets like this year (narrow trading ranges) The problem we are running into is that we have found excellent systems for consolidation-trading ranges like this year , but it doesn't test well against Bull or bear markets. I like the idea of modifying your system of this year, which has down well in this type of market, then we can back test it against prior markets. It is a great idea to see if you can find a way to stay in during long up trends with your current system, I was thinking the same thing. Say, are you looking at 30 day average or 63 to modify?
Joel
MM,
I agree with you, all these numbers are driving me nuts as well. We need something that works in long uptrends, long downtrends, and markets like this year (narrow trading ranges) The problem we are running into is that we have found excellent systems for consolidation-trading ranges like this year , but it doesn't test well against Bull or bear markets. I like the idea of modifying your system of this year, which has down well in this type of market, then we can back test it against prior markets. It is a great idea to see if you can find a way to stay in during long up trends with your current system, I was thinking the same thing. Say, are you looking at 30 day average or 63 to modify?
Joel
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I wrote:
I like the idea of modifying your system of this year, which has down well in this type of market, then we can back test it against prior markets.
I meant
I like the idea of modifying your system of this year, which has done well in this type of market, then we can back test it against prior markets.
This makes more sense. Sorry for the confusion.
Joel
I wrote:
I like the idea of modifying your system of this year, which has down well in this type of market, then we can back test it against prior markets.
I meant
I like the idea of modifying your system of this year, which has done well in this type of market, then we can back test it against prior markets.
This makes more sense. Sorry for the confusion.
Joel
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I'm going back to 63-day average since all the funds eventually came back up to this range. I'm still going to track the 30-day also because I'm not quite convinced it won't be better in the long run. We'll see.
I sent you an e-mail about my modification. With my old system, you'd be up about 71% right now using the profunds. :^
I'm outta here, later.
M_M
PS- Got the modification figured out, just back-testing now.
I'm going back to 63-day average since all the funds eventually came back up to this range. I'm still going to track the 30-day also because I'm not quite convinced it won't be better in the long run. We'll see.
I sent you an e-mail about my modification. With my old system, you'd be up about 71% right now using the profunds. :^
I'm outta here, later.
M_M
PS- Got the modification figured out, just back-testing now.
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