mlk_man's account talk

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Looks like I'll be using 3-day moving averages for my signal now instead of 63-day. Hit right on. Love that!! I will nowsell at 2.5% above the 30-day moving average and buy at 1.5% below. (+\- .05)

 

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3 day moving average! Wow. That is pretty hands on. I use the 200 day moving average.

We are at a big gain or big loss level here. As you can see it does not hang around the 200 day very long. I am hoping we test the June highs.

Should be a very interesting short week next week. Good luck TSPers.

Good story about the F fund. That baby feel hard for a fund that moves like a rock.

 

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mlk_man wrote:

Looks like I'll be using 3-day moving averages for my signal now instead of 63-day. Hit right on. Love that!! I will nowsell at 2.5% above the 30-day moving average and buy at 1.5% below. (+- .05)

Oops, I meant 30-day :^

 

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So I should be selling S and C and into G right now? Is that right, cause I am still in C and S right now?

Joel

 

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Sorry Joel, I was out yesterday. Yes, I am currentlly 100% G fund. If you're still in, I wouldn't sweat it. Probably still go up a bit. I forgot to dollar cost average when I sold this time...................

I'm looking for at least one more big drop in prices before the year's out so I get another good gainer and pass my goal of >20% gains for the year. :^

 

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So, are we going on the 30 day average and not the 63? Then when should I get out according to the "system".

Joel

 

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Joel,

In my opinion taking Milk's advice of buying on the next big down day will be a big mistake. The next big down day I will be bailing.

Anyone else have thoughts on this issue???

I believe there will be a rally this afternoon. Right now everyone is afraid of pulling the trigger in case Mr Greenspan tries to harpoon Bush II like he did Bush I.

Good luck!

 

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HEY MT, you're getting old dude. Yada, yada, yada. Proof is in the pudding! From what I've seen of your comments, you've been hiding in G fund almost all year. Make any money?

 

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Milk,

Did not make much, but on the other hand I did not lose anything. If we could short our TSP funds I would of been up a ton. Going long this market is not wise. Going ahead and buy into the next down day. I said Friday was going to be a bad day starting 27 Augand there would be a RNC rally this week. You went into G fund on a market sell off day (friday) and missed the nice up day yesterday. Who is ahead of who????

I may be yada yada to you but hopefully to others I am coming in loud and clear. Get the heck out of the way on the next big down day and do not buy into it.

Anyone agree with me (anyone on my side here :shock??? Hiding out in G fund is not bad when the market is going down...not up.

NEW YORK - Wall Street professionals know to keep their expectations in check in September, historically the worst month of the year for stocks. As summertime draws to a close, money managers are getting back to business, cleaning house, and often sending the market[/b] lower in the process.

September has opened strong eight of the last nine years, but it's ended with a knockout punch for stocks for the lastsix years, because institutional traders are making end-of-the-quarter portfolio changes.

MT

 

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

So, are we going on the 30 day average and not the 63? Then when should I get out according to the "system".

Joel

Yes Joel, I switched to the 30-day average. It typically has been pretty close to the 63-day average all year since we've sort of been going sideways. But now there is a pretty large disparity. I think it will enable us to move a bit quicker on buy and sell indicators. And have more "buy" opportunites. We'll see. I'm still tracking both.

Currently the 30-day moving average is at $12.32 and the 63-day is $12.59 for the S fund.

As I said earlier, I'm out now, but things may still go up a little bit. And no MT, I don't buy on "down days". I buy when the market drops far enough. Pay attention to fewer "real" things and not as many "fantasy" things. How's the meds going? They helping? :u

 

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mlk_man wrote:

Sorry Joel, I was out yesterday. Yes, I am currentlly 100% G fund. If you're still in, I wouldn't sweat it. Probably still go up a bit. I forgot to dollar cost average when I sold this time...................

I'm looking for at least one more big drop in prices before the year's out so I get another good gainer and pass my goal of >20% gains for the year. :^

Milk,

Great advice selling on the huge down day last Friday and sitting in G fund now. In my opinion you are going to miss a 5-15% rally from now to the end of the month. I am going to sell at the top and get back in "on the one more big drop in prices".

You can get personal if you want in your comments. But in my opinion you are the one that needs to be on meds. Risk/reward. You will be missing the best rally of the year. You should restate your investment plan by saying "I sell into the big drop in prices."

So far since I have been on this board I am two for two. Down day last Friday and a rally this week. I will continue to make great calls to if anyone wants to listen they can make some dough too.

Good luck!

MT

 

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MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

Did not make much, but on the other hand I did not lose anything. If we could short our TSP funds I would of been up a ton. Going long this market is not wise. Going ahead and buy into the next down day. I said Friday was going to be a bad day starting 27 Augand there would be a RNC rally this week. You went into G fund on a market sell off day (friday) and missed the nice up day yesterday. Who is ahead of who????

I may be yada yada to you but hopefully to others I am coming in loud and clear. Get the heck out of the way on the next big down day and do not buy into it.

Anyone agree with me (anyone on my side here :shock??? Hiding out in G fund is not bad when the market is going down...not up.

NEW YORK - Wall Street professionals know to keep their expectations in check in September, historically the worst month of the year for stocks. As summertime draws to a close, money managers are getting back to business, cleaning house, and often sending the market[/b] lower in the process.

September has opened strong eight of the last nine years, but it's ended with a knockout punch for stocks for the lastsix years, because institutional traders are making end-of-the-quarter portfolio changes.

MT

Get your head out my brother....I've seen you bash me, Tom, Moe, Larry and Curly over our decisions, but you know what. I happen to like the decisions I've made and have documented them. You seem to keep changing your story. You said the market was gonna drop all week long last week. When it "finallly" does, you say "told ya so".

LOL, are you a meteorologist? It's gonna rain, sometime............

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

BTW, by being in last week, and supposedly you weren't, I gained 1.4% percent.

I'll leave you with one comment then you go on "ignore" cause I think all you do is put fear into people and your not gonna make money by sitting in G all the time. And let me spell this out for ya:

U

P

16.81%

FOR

THE

YEAR!!!!!!!!!!

And not done yet..............

Bye MT, take a vacation..........

 

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MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

Great advice selling on the huge down day last Friday and sitting in G fund now. In my opinion you are going to miss a 5-15% rally from now to the end of the month. I am going to sell at the top and get back in "on the one more big drop in prices".

You can get personal if you want in your comments. But in my opinion you are the one that needs to be on meds. Risk/reward. You will be missing the best rally of the year. You should restate your investment plan by saying "I sell into the big drop in prices."

So far since I have been on this board I am two for two. Down day last Friday and a rally this week. I will continue to make great calls to if anyone wants to listen they can make some dough too.

Good luck!

MT

GET WITH THE PROGRAM DUDE. i SOLD MY SHARES ON THURSDAY!!!!!!!!!! AT $12.71 PER SHARE. NOT FRIDAY AT $12.65 PER SHARE!!! GOOD GOD MAN IF THIS IS SO BAD, THEN LEAD US DEAR MOSESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

 

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Milk,

Last week, S&P 500 rebalance on Tuesday (index funds had to buy stock) and a rumour rally on Thursday of the leaked "gang buster job report" and we caught Osama at 2pm. Oh yeah, Intel moved their earnings guidance from Thursday at 1300 until after the close. Hmmm???

Ignore me if you want. That is your lose. With the calls you make I think your up 16.81% YTDis a dream not a reality. Going to G fund last Friday was a prime example.

MT

P.S. Just let me know when you are going out of G so I can go to G.

 

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mlk_man wrote:

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

Great advice selling on the huge down day last Friday and sitting in G fund now. In my opinion you are going to miss a 5-15% rally from now to the end of the month. I am going to sell at the top and get back in "on the one more big drop in prices".

You can get personal if you want in your comments. But in my opinion you are the one that needs to be on meds. Risk/reward. You will be missing the best rally of the year. You should restate your investment plan by saying "I sell into the big drop in prices."

So far since I have been on this board I am two for two. Down day last Friday and a rally this week. I will continue to make great calls to if anyone wants to listen they can make some dough too.

Good luck!

MT

GET WITH THE PROGRAM DUDE. i SOLD MY SHARES ON THURSDAY!!!!!!!!!! AT $12.71 PER SHARE. NOT FRIDAY AT $12.65 PER SHARE!!! GOOD GOD MAN IF THIS IS SO BAD, THEN LEAD US DEAR MOSESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

 

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Milk,

Read what you write. I believe that is the problem.

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

That means you switched to G fund on Friday.

 

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MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

Great advice selling on the huge down day last Friday and sitting in G fund now. In my opinion you are going to miss a 5-15% rally from now to the end of the month. I am going to sell at the top and get back in "on the one more big drop in prices".

You can get personal if you want in your comments. But in my opinion you are the one that needs to be on meds. Risk/reward. You will be missing the best rally of the year. You should restate your investment plan by saying "I sell into the big drop in prices."

So far since I have been on this board I am two for two. Down day last Friday and a rally this week. I will continue to make great calls to if anyone wants to listen they can make some dough too.

Good luck!

MT

And I think that anyone else who actually takes the time to read your comments knows that you are full of horse hockey. Just my humble opinion...........:^

You seem to tailor your comments and others to meet your own needs. I forgive you though, some people just aren't happy unless they are talking.

BTW, you're saying "rally" now? I thought last week you were very bearish for the remainder of the year?

Hey Tom, can someone "bar" someone else from making comments in their "member allocation talk" forum? LOL Yahoo has an "ignore" button...............

Quotes from MT:

"Hate to be a flip flopper but I am going 100% at the Monday closing price. There is just a cloud starting Tuesday and I want to be in my hole to wait and see if I can peek my head up and start to nibble again. I really want to bank my gains from 13 Aug. With the news the Fed is going to raise rates again no matter what oil or inflation does in September is not factor in yet to the market."

Said this on a Sunday and S fund went up from $12.49 on Monday to $12.71 on Thursday when I went 100% G fund. Does his statement say anything about waiting till Friday to get out? Hmmmmm

Another quote for Tues Aug 31th:

"I feel very good about going 100% G Fund at this point. This feels like the last seven times the market turned up...we went lower."

This sound like a man who is currently "bullish"?

And as far as calling this a rally this week, ummm, haven't we been rallying for about 2-3 weeks now?

 

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MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

Last week, S&P 500 rebalance on Tuesday (index funds had to buy stock) and a rumour rally on Thursday of the leaked "gang buster job report" and we caught Osama at 2pm. Oh yeah, Intel moved their earnings guidance from Thursday at 1300 until after the close. Hmmm???

Ignore me if you want. That is your lose. With the calls you make I think your up 16.81% YTDis a dream not a reality. Going to G fund last Friday was a prime example.

MT

P.S. Just let me know when you are going out of G so I can go to G.

I could of got back in on Tuesday at Friday's prices if I had wanted to. But I'm not a daily timer such as yourself oh great ZEN master!!

 

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Milk,

Heart rate getting pumping??? Hey buddy I do not want to piss you off.

I wish you luck in the G fund.

I am trying to listen to Greenspan and want to pop my eardrums out. I think he is saying good things.

I will not question your methods. Last week was a crazy week. I think I called it X Files stuff.

I hope you have a great week and do not ignore me.

Just be careful getting back in the indexes at this time of the year. It may be an election year but mutual funds want to take losses to offset their gains and get the crappy stocks off their list of holdings. Happens every year.

Good luck!
MT