mlk_man's account talk

[Guest]

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I always put all my new money in the G fund to be on the "safe" side and it's easier than having to worry about when it goes in and where I should put it.

Actually Pete1 was more correct than myself on buy and holders. I must of subtracted twice or something. I just go to the TSP home page and use their monthly return section for each fund then I figured out August myself. So, if only invested in S fund, buy and holders are +0.45 for the year. They are down -.40% for Aug. But, if you take the S share price to start the year, $12.48 and subtract the current price, $12.44, it is -.32% for the year like Pete said. Maybe TSP did something different, who knows.

I am presently up 12.65% for the year if only invested in the S fund. Don't feel like figuring the rest of em out.

Thanks for clearing that up for us Pete1.

 

[Guest]

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mlk_man wrote:

Well I've decided to stick with my guns and stay 100%S fund. The moving averages chart has hit a critical point. The fast moving average has moved back up to the intermediate moving average. This happened a couple of weeks ago but it was unable to break through and instead began to decline again. Hopefully this time it will bust through and we'll see more gains.

Keep hope alive!!!

Currentlly up 11.1% for the year. :^Buy and holders, if only invested in the S fund, are -5.82% for the year.

Well, Friday we did break through the intermediate moving average. Hopefully it will continue for awhile. :^

 

[Pete1]

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No problem.

 

[Guest]

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So are we "buying" yet with new money (the amount in the G fund) or are we waiting for another oppurtunity?

Joel

 

[Guest]

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That is actually just a personal call you'll have to make. I usually just leave mine in the G fund till I move my other money back in the G then move everything at once. Usually only in there a couple months at most so I really don't get too concerned about it.

 

[Guest]

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Okay all, "tweaking" my "system" again. Sorry, lol. Not making a move right now, still 100% S, just wanted to explain what I'm gonna do when I do move so it can soak in.

I'm going to add "dollar cost averaging" to the mix. This is sort of what I did last time I had a "buy" signal. On July 16th I got a "buy" signal for the S at $12.65 so I went 50% S effective July 17th. (I was already 100% C at the time). As we know, prices continued to fall. On July 23rd I decided to go 100% S effective July 24th. This means I was able to "buy" S at $12.18 for a "dollar cost average" per share of $12.41. This afforded me the opportunity to make more money.

That being said, I'm actually up for the month instead of being down. I'm still waiting for another "sell" signal. If I was doing 30-day moving averages instead of 60-day, I'd have a "sell" signal now at $12.48. But, my 60-day signal is $12.80 right now so I'm sticking to it. Will probably drop more in the coming days because we are losing those big days in June.

So my system now includes 4 basic strategies:

1) my origanal idea of buying at 20centsunder the 60-day moving average and selling at30 cents over(unless we are in a down-trending market, as we have been, then the concept is inverted. ( I may end up changing this to a % rather than an actual price at some point something like 2.5% instead of 30 cents, and 1.5% instead of 20cents)

2)Follow 5-day(fast), 21-day(intermediate), and 63-day(slow) moving averages. The fast moving average for the S fund was quickly heading back up to the slow average but has now leveled off a bit. Scares me a little bit.

3)"Dollar cost averaging". I explained this earlier and I believe it may afford me the opportunity to make even more money.

4) Average market sentiment. You have to pay attention to things happening around you. Though most of the time I don't listen. But, ifsomeone blew up the RNC, would you stay in the market?

That's it. Just wanted to let whoever follows this know what I'm going to be doing so you can research it if you like.

Currently up 15.03% for the year. :^

 

[Guest]

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Not to be negative. But if something gets blown up I will go 100% C fund.

At tspmoney.com there is a lot of flashing red lights right now. What is your view on the job report?

[align=left]

Short Range
1/3/13 Day
Moving Averages

Short Range
3/13/39 Day
Moving Averages

Medium Range
13/39/50 Day
Moving Averages

Long Range
39/50/100 Day
Moving Averages

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[Guest]

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Lot''s of green in the short range. I really don't think too much about it to be honest. I try to keep this as simple as possible and still make money. I may not time it right every day,, but eventuallly I will profit AND keep my sanity. You don't want me to end up like Rolo, I mean ROLO do ya?

Just kidding dude!!

 

[Guest]

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Milk,

I am taking the F fund trend and see if I can get some coinage on that for the week.

Was going to go I fund (based on week U.S. econonic data) but that is a day late and a dollar short. Nomar made a great move going 100% I fund based on the weak data. That is investing 101. Bad news in the U.S. weakens the U.S. dollar and the international index rally. But put that in our memory banks and job on that next time.

What is your outlook on Intel guidance , the weekly jobless claims and the August job report? I believe those are the drivers for the market for the rest of the month.

MT

 

[Guest]

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You may want to read this:

Under normal circumstances, Warren Buffett is a man you don't want to trade against. But now may be a rare instance to do so...
As of March, Warren Buffett had $18 billion in foreign currencies. He's worried about the U.S. dollar crashing under the weight of the twin deficits, like everyone else on the planet.
When it comes to buying businesses, my money is with Buffett. But when it comes to trading currencies, his record isn't so great.
In Fortune magazine, he admitted as much: "I started way back in 1987 to publicly worry about our mounting trade deficits-and, as you know, we've not only survived but also thrived. So on the trade front, score at least one "wolf" for me. Nevertheless, I am crying wolf again."
When it comes to trading currencies, Dennis Gartman and John Percival are two guys I listen to closely. Between them, they've been writing their investment letters on this topic for over 40 years. This week in The Gartman Letter, Dennis (unintentionally) put Buffett in his place...

WHY "A PROBLEM IS NOT A PROBLEM UNTIL IT IS A PROBLEM"
Says Gartman: "We have watched too many great minds in the field of investment worry about problems that never come to fruition, and in the process have not only wasted valuable "mental" capital, they have lost real in-the-pocket capital, and it is sad. We think it is wise to plan for future events; we think it is unwise to trade in anticipation of them."
Gartman sums it up by saying: "a problem is not a problem until it is a problem."
Buffett buys businesses that are working right now at cheap prices. He doesn't trade in anticipation of the future. But that seems to be what he's doing in the currency markets now.
Again, in the case of buying businesses cheap, I'll take Buffett. But in the case of speculating on currencies, I'll take Gartman, or John Percival...
THE DOLLAR BEAR MARKET IS OVER
The bear market in the dollar is over, John Percival declared in the latest issue of his letter "Currency Bulletin," out today.
Unlike Buffett, Percival is now bullish on the U.S. dollar, expecting it to rise versus the euro, and just about everything else.
Has he lost his mind?
Isn't he aware of our twin deficits... our sky-high budget deficit and trade deficit? And how it has to come home to roost some day, causing the dollar to crash in the process? Isn't he aware that the Buffett is expecting the dollar to fall?
Percival has been writing "Currency Bulletin" since 1982, successfully going against popular opinion time and again. So no, he hasn't lost his mind. He's simply calling it as he sees it. With his track record in currencies, as a general rule you don't want to be trading against this guy.
For the last two years, the dollar has been in a bear market, he explains. "All along, the underlying rationale for this bearishness has appeared to lie in America's current account deficit." Percival, since 1982, has never worried about a deficit in his trading. And he's been a winner.
Simply put (nice that Percival can talk about currencies simply), he says "the U.S. economy is okay for now; if we have a problem with that, we can take our money off the table."
Smart people like Warren Buffett, have worried aloud about a U.S. dollar crash, triggered by massive deficits in the U.S. But most of these smart people are not currency people.
Gartman and Percival are currency guys. And neither of them shares Buffett's view about the dollar now.
There are a lot of smart guys out there, who believe down in their toes that the dollar must crash, and it must happen sooner rather than later.
In this case, I'd rather be with Gartman and Percival. A dollar crash may happen some day. But not today.

 

[Guest]

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Milk,

I canx my transaction and will stay 100% G fund through the week. It looks like the hedge funds have sold bonds are in oil again. At least that is my take on what is going on.

The auto report, Intel and job report to me is not worth the risk reward to hop in the soup right now.

MT

 

[Guest]

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Okay, I've finally reached the point where I'm a little worried about the short term. Moving 100% G fund effective tomorrow morning.

Several reasons, all of which none have anything to do with my actual "system" but it does involve part 4 of my investment strategies, "surrounding circumstances".

Jobs report, impending hurricane, Intel, and three of Yukos's production facilities being frozen. Little too much for me. Hopefully we'll stay up today for a little more profit.

As I stated earlier, if I was using 30-day moving averages instead of 63-day moving averages, I'd have a "sell" signal right now. Guess we'll see if I stay with 63 or move to 30. :^

 

[Guest]

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I think I should of went F. Oh well..............

 

[Timer]

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mlk_man wrote:

As I stated earlier, if I was using 30-day moving averages instead of 63-day moving averages, I'd have a "sell" signal right now. Guess we'll see if I stay with 63 or move to 30. :^

M_M always glad to hear what you have to say. Where do you track 63 day MA's? I look at tspmoney.com daily but they don't have MA's that far out.

Also, I've been meaning to ask this for a while, have you ever laid out your strategy in one statement? If you've done that on this board, I've missed it.

Thx!

 

[Timer]

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mlk_man wrote:

He's worried about the U.S. dollar crashing under the weight of the twin deficits, like everyone else on the planet.

M_M or should I say m_m ....

Where can one see charts on how the USD is doing. Especially against other currencies. Also, if the USD does go down, that augers well for the I fund no?

Also, doesn't gold usually get a bounce up when the USD drops? Thinking of buying some Gold :iif Warren is right.... but he's usually not right on trade. What's a mother to do!

 

[Timer]

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Timer wrote:

Also, I've been meaning to ask this for a while, have you ever laid out your strategy in one statement? If you've done that on this board, I've missed it.

Thx!

Duh! It's in your 6:38 post. :dah:

 

[tsptalk]

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Timer wrote:

Where can one see charts on how the USD is doing. Especially against other currencies. Also, if the USD does go down, that augers well for the I fund no?

[url]http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex&nopu=xte6CKhUbf9%2Br8NpYcZNVdu28FIfJPuoy6XqHjWyEpqTkxNLCn2V4Q%3D%3D[/url]

 

[Guest]

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Timer wrote:

M_M or should I say m_m ....

Where can one see charts on how the USD is doing. Especially against other currencies. Also, if the USD does go down, that augers well for the I fund no?

Also, doesn't gold usually get a bounce up when the USD drops? Thinking of buying some Gold :iif Warren is right.... but he's usually not right on trade. What's a mother to do!

Yes you're right about Warren, his track record in currency hasn't always been great. A lot of people have been saying buy gold for some time now. And yes, a drop in the dollar is "usually" good for the I fund, but not always......jpemeralds mentioned that he thought the I fund typically "follows" what the C and S do within a few days, so went back to the first of the year and of the 4 times I've had "buy" signals for the I, 3 of them have followed "buy" signals for the S. Will be interesting to see if the I has a big up day within a few days since the C and S had a big day yesterday..

As far as my 63-day moving average, I just keep track of it myself.

Did you understand my "system". A few different strategies all mixed into one. Seems to be working though. I sold my S shares at the end of yesterday for a 2.42%gain , usually Iget 4-5%, and am now up 16.81% for the year. :!100% G for today. Got out a little early according to my "sell at 20 cents above the 60-moving average in a downtrending market" strategy, but not if I was using 30-day moving averages. I'll see how the next couple of days look and I may switch to 30-day. Still "tweaking" my "system". I just tought of checking 30-day moving averages because of our current volatility and it's too much of a pain to back test it, so we'll see. Volatility is good for my system. :^

Also, some people think the bear market in the dollar is over, be careful. I shy away from the I fund all to gather usually. Although I which I hadn't earlier this year. On May 7th I had a buy signal for the I fund and could of bought it for $12.46 and then got the sell signal on June 7th and could of sold it for $13.46. Could of had an 8% profit in a month!! Grrrrrrr, LOL.

Thanks for the website link Tom, didn't know of that one. :u

Good luck!!

And yes,please call me M_M, born and raised in Texas and you know what they say about Texas....guess I should change mlk_man to Mlk_Man!! Or maybe that's why I don't live there anymore, hmmmm..........

 

[Guest]

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Be careful with that F fund!!!!!!!!!! Here's a quote from cnnmoney:

Treasurys tumbled and the dollar rose after August employment data released Friday morning showed job creation just below analysts' forecasts and lower unemployment, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will further raise interest rates.

Higher rates pressure bonds because they erode the fixed-value return on Treasurys, while a rate hike would support the dollar by making U.S. equities attractive to overseas investors.

 

[Guest]

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Timer wrote:

What's a mother to do!

Don't have any myself, but my advice is give them to their father and go on vacation!!:u