mlk_man's account talk

[Guest]

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I'm feeling another day late day rally if there are no terroist attacks again. :%

 

[Timer]

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mlk_man wrote:

I'm actually thinking of getting out of S for either Friday or Monday. Greenspan meets again Tuesday so probably get another rate hike then which isn't good for the S fund. Probably go either C or I. C most likely. Appears as though S maybe consiladating for a lower average price. We'll see tomorrow.

Thanks m_m. I don't have a system like you but I've observed that when S takes off, I follows later. Can you comment on that? Maybe with your system, you don't pay attention to generalities so much.

 

[Guest]

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Timer wrote:

Thanks m_m. I don't have a system like you but I've observed that when S takes off, I follows later. Can you comment on that? Maybe with your system, you don't pay attention to generalities so much.

Actually you are correct, for this year anyway. Not sure about other years. 3 out of 4 times this year that I have gotten "buy" signals for the S fund, the I fund has followed within 5 days. :^

Also noticed that I can't spell anymore. I may be getting investor's brain-hemorrhage! :shock:

 

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mlk_man wrote:

jgpalmerdds wrote:

By the way, Profunds Inc. has a lot of leveraged funds that follow averages like the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S & P 500 and others. You can trade them through Scottrade online and pay NO FEES even if you only hold them for a day. I have been with Scottrade for over 2 years and they are great. Also, if you make a change before 3:00 pm on a day, you get that end of day's price! Consequently, Profunds even has Bear market inverse leveraged funds that trade the same way. So if you go into a long term bear market, you can make money. You could definately use your system, acheive nice returns and lessen your risk. Check out Profunds.com and Scottrade, a great combo!

Joel

Thanks for the Profunds info Joel! It's great having a fund that tracks the inverse of the major indices. Should make for bigger profits in my personal Scottrade account. I only which our TSP plan had inverse funds.

Mike

Hey Joel,

I've located a fund that inverses the S&P 500 and you only have to have $2500 to invest in it, $750 for an IRA. Unlike what Profund charges. Just in case Scottrade stops allowing you to invest smaller amounts.

 

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

As far as the minimal dollar amounts per Profund. I know some of them have large $ figures but that is bunk. I have gotten in with a lot less. Sometimes the Scottrade people call me and mention that to me, and most of the time they put it through. The Scottrade people tell me that it is up to the Profunds people at the other end, maybe on their mood for the day. For instance, right now, in my kids college funds, I have about $1500 invested each in the double inverse Russell 2000, double inverse Nasdaq 100, double inverse S/P 500. Check out the minimum invest $ and you will see that they are listed as a lot more. Just ignore the minimums and trade and see what happens. I hope that this helps.

Joel

Hey Joel,

I've located a fund that inverses the S&P 500 and you only have to have $2500 to invest in it, $750 for an IRA. Unlike what Profund charges. Just in case Scottrade stops allowing you to invest smaller amounts. It is DRCVX.

Good Luck,

M_M

 

[Guest]

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MLK,

I noticed that you indicated about getting out of the S fund early next week. Unless there is a dramatic change in the market going upward, we will take a loss on the "sell", true? Do we just wait this out and wait till it goes .2 above (buy price or 63 day price) I'm not sure. All that I know is I'm getting killed overall since I got in this time. Also, what about new money coming in on payday. Do you apply it to the S fund (if that is what you bought), etc if already invested in those funds? Please respond.

By the way, the 10 day average showed an uptrend, I swithced to "long" and got killed for a 7% loss in 5 days (with margin) I should of listened to the timing service! By the way, I'm some 18% down since Aprilin my Roth IRA, isn't that a great thing! I had good gains in the beginning of the year, started the timing service on a late "buy" (on the waydown) signal, changed to long in the middle of their sell signal and now have changed back. That equals to 18% loss since April! Isn't emotion beautiful. I'm as confused as ever. Dollar Cost Average vs. MLK formula Vs timingtrend service. I'm not sure which way to go?

Joel

 

[Guest]

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

MLK,

I noticed that you indicated about getting out of the S fund early next week. Unless there is a dramatic change in the market going upward, we will take a loss on the "sell", true? Do we just wait this out and wait till it goes .2 above (buy price or 63 day price) I'm not sure. All that I know is I'm getting killed overall since I got in this time. Also, what about new money coming in on payday. Do you apply it to the S fund (if that is what you bought), etc if already invested in those funds? Please respond.

By the way, the 10 day average showed an uptrend, I swithced to "long" and got killed for a 7% loss in 5 days (with margin) I should of listened to the timing service! By the way, I'm some 18% down since Aprilin my Roth IRA, isn't that a great thing! I had good gains in the beginning of the year, started the timing service on a late "buy" (on the waydown) signal, changed to long in the middle of their sell signal and now have changed back. That equals to 18% loss since April! Isn't emotion beautiful. I'm as confused as ever. Dollar Cost Average vs. MLK formula Vs timingtrend service. I'm not sure which way to go?

Joel

Wrote this in another forum on here:

Just a reminder, back on April 30th I got a "buy" signal for the S fund so I went 100% S at $12.78 per share. I didn't get a "sell" signal till June 25th. I "sold" my shares then at $13.07 for a 2.27% gain. Almost 2 months of sitting on my a** picking my nose! Sometimes it takes awhile, sometimes it doesn't. In March I bought and sold the S fund in 7 days, for a 4.35% gain!

Just hang tough folks...............:*

Eventually the market will be back up, hang tight. I'm sticking with the S fund till I make some money back, was just my emotions talking earlier. Had to take them in the alley and beat the crap out of em!

I usually wait until 30 cents above the 63-day moving average, but the 63-day moving average for the S is currently $12.68. It was $12.88 before this current slide so I''m going to stay in until my moving-averages chart shows a down trend. Remember, during a prolonged up-trend, just stay in for the ride unless we get some little ups and downs along the way. That's where my "system" works best. I'll let you know when to get out.

As far as new monies coming in, I just keep all mine in the G fund and move it around when I get I "buy" signal. If you know when it is deposited, then I guess you could put it somewhere else depending on if we are going up or down.

What "timing service" are you speaking of? You're not following my system for your IRA?

By the way, since my current "buy" signal for the S, which I bought at $12.63, I'm "only" down -4.1%. That makes my gains for the year still +11% for the S and I still haven't "sold" my current shares yet.Know where buy and holders are at this year for the S? -2.55%!!

Stick with it, it'll be ahhhright...........:^I'm still banking I make "AT LEAST" 20 - 35% this year.

Oh and I've figured out that working with the inverse funds in Scottrade, I should be able to make 40 - 80% profits a year, if not more. :shock:

 

[Guest]

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By the way, not to confuse you anymore, but I'm gonna be "tweaking" my system a bit. During a down trending market, when the intermediate and long moving-averages are going down, I'm going to invert my "buy" and "sell" signals. I'll "buy" at 30 cents below the 63-day moving average and "sell" at 20 cents above instead of vice-versa. Only makes sense to me and having back-tested it, could of made a little more money.

 

[Rod]

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mlk_man wrote:

As far as new monies coming in, I just keep all mine in the G fund and move it around when I get I "buy" signal. If you know when it is deposited, then I guess you could put it somewhere else depending on if we are going up or down.

That's what I'm doing wrong. Thanx! I currently have mine in S hoping to "buy low"and have already lost about 60% of my payday contribution.

From now on, I'm allocating my payday contributions to G, then moving in for the kill to "buy low".

:^

 

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As far as the private IRA money goes, I'm with a timing service, which out in the open, I'm not a loud to say. I've been threatened by them already before because they were "monitoring" this site. I went away with it for a week, using 10 day averages and got in "long" against their signal and lost 8% in 5 days (that would have been an 8% gain if I would of stayed put short. Fortunatly, I got back in short today and enjoyed an 4.8% turnaround, short (on margin). I'm fully invested in Russell 2000 short, on margin, right now. I've taken your advice and will probably be staying away from the S and P 500, sticking with the Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 because they are more volatile, and there is more chance for longs and shorts, and bigger gains. I've got an 18% loss to make up, and then some.

Tell me, how are you going to do your "system" with Scottrade and Profunds? Which funds are you going to invest in? I would test their "minimums" and as long as you have a $1000 or so, I think they will let you in. Later.

 

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I probablly won't start with the Profunds until next year. I have to save up some money to put in my account. I'm taking a real beating now because I'm invested in individual stocks and we all know how the market has been doing. :X

I will probably invest in the ultra small cap fund (UAPIX) when I get a "buy" signal and the inverse ultra small cap fund (UCPIX) when my "sell" signal comes around. :^

 

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That is exactly the approach I'm going to start taking. In fact, right now to simplify, I'm only into the Russell 2000 short. The S and P just doesn't move enough for me to say in it. I would heavily look into your system with the Nasdaq 100 as well, because it has very distinct ups and downs, and the return potential either wayis much greater. So tell me, have you thought about how your system would work with long's and shorts? Would you implement both? It is a lot more confusing when you have a choice of short vs. long as opposed to long vs. cash.

Joel

 

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I'd probably have to pay more attention to the moving averages to tell me when the market is trending up or down. It's trending down now so going short would be best. We'd still the dips or bumps depending on which way the market is going and my system would help to play these. Should be interesting. Good luck!

Anyone know what time Greenspan speaks today? I may make a move to the G or F fund depending on what happens today or tomorrow. I hate to the "hit", but might be better in the long run. I'll make it up later. This has been a strange time and no system is perfect. Sure which we had inverse funds in our TSP!!

 

[Rolo]

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Joel, mlk, are you long or short in anything right now or as you as reluctant as I? I dumped everything (except my long-term keepers,SIRI & XMSR) so I have cash.

 

[Guest]

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Rolo,

I'm Shorting the Russell 2000, on margin with my private IRA money, and I'm following MLK's formula with my TSP money. I was in the G fund (no short option) until I convinced myself to go with MLK (which I still Have confidence in) It is really weird, but one is short (IRA) and one is long (TSP) When the market goes down, I come out ahead though because I have 8 X more money in my private IRA right now, and I'm shorting it on margin. Like today, I took a 4.5% hit on my IRA account, but the overall short trend is up about 8% since April 30th. It is 3 1/2 months into this trend, and it is really tough to sit there when the market goes up (while being short), but they recommend staying put, which I didn't, and got burned. I went long on my own last week and missed an 8% (on margin) downswing (I lost 8% going long) That is what I am doing, trying to feel out a shorter term system in the TSP while sticking to a longer trend model in the IRA's. I tell you, if we hit a long bear or bull market, watch out with this trend timing. Had I been with them last year, long, I would have returned 100% or so on my money (that is with margin, of course). I also would make a killing in the bear (going short) I hope this helps.

Joel

 

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Rolo,

I'm not currently shorting anything, I'm waiting for my two stocks to come up before I dump them and start playing with the inverse funds. My stocks are currently NT and SWW. I really like SIRI for the next few months with football season coming up and they have the NFL rights. When do you think you would see the stock price go up if they get a large sells spike within the next month? After Q3 earnings report?

Also, even though I''ve "lost" roughly 4.28% since July 19th, but not really since I did buy 50% of my S shares at 12.18 on July 26th, I'm still up about 10% for the year. Which is better than most. I expect to have more of a profit when I finally "sell" my S shares. Need more days like Tues. :^

m_m

 

[Guest]

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Check out the top two headlines for NT though yahoo. :^

 

[Rolo]

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NT may be promising. Let's see what their earnings report shows Aug 19.

Oneproblem is that there are so many wireless providers that the competition is fierce. Some insider info: Nortel is seriously vying for the military's blessing for Voice-over-Internet Protocol (VoIP), which will eventually replace analog copper lines. (I am one of the guys saying, "Let'sditch this old junk already!") Cisco has a nice system, but they blew it and are retreating. Plus, they are expensive.

At a quick glance, SWW looks promising technically and fundamentally. I'm keeping my eye on both of these.

SIRI shocked me. It actually fell below my cost basis. I still hold-and-forget it and XMSR.

 

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Two more for you to keep an eye on that I just bought into for the long term. PNAMF, $1 per share, and PWRM, $2 per share. Both are fairly new companies. PNAMF is a gold mining company and PWRM is a biotech company. PWRM is trying to come up with an early detection diagnostic test for certain cancers and other diseases. Can you imagine if they succeed at this? I might actually go in for a colon cancer test! Take a little blood and presto! :^

 

[Guest]

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There is a God!!!!!!!!!!!! Check out PWRM. It's up 45% today!!! I just bought it yesterday. :shock: