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mlk_man's account talk
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I'm mainly going with small companies because I'm only playing around with $1000 to see how it goes. The companies I like most are the ones trading around their 52-week lows that have company big wigs with stock in the company. You're two choices look like they're trading around the top of their averages. :shock:But I'm probably wrong about my thinking. Just starting out.
Currently I have VSL, MTE, AAI, SFP and SONSE.
I'm mainly going with small companies because I'm only playing around with $1000 to see how it goes. The companies I like most are the ones trading around their 52-week lows that have company big wigs with stock in the company. You're two choices look like they're trading around the top of their averages. :shock:But I'm probably wrong about my thinking. Just starting out.
Currently I have VSL, MTE, AAI, SFP and SONSE.
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Mike,
So right now, with 50% S, 50% C, do we take a sixth out of each and allocate a full 33% to I when there is a buy? Leaving it 33% for each of the stock funds? Thanks.
By the way, Profunds Inc. has a lot of leveraged funds that follow averages like the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S & P 500 and others. You can trade them through Scottrade online and pay NO FEES even if you only hold them for a day. I have been with Scottrade for over 2 years and they are great. Also, if you make a change before 3:00 pm on a day, you get that end of day's price! Consequently, Profunds even has Bear market inverse leveraged funds that trade the same way. So if you go into a long term bear market, you can make money. You could definately use your system, acheive nice returns and lessen your risk. Check out Profunds.com and Scottrade, a great combo!
Joel
Mike,
So right now, with 50% S, 50% C, do we take a sixth out of each and allocate a full 33% to I when there is a buy? Leaving it 33% for each of the stock funds? Thanks.
By the way, Profunds Inc. has a lot of leveraged funds that follow averages like the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S & P 500 and others. You can trade them through Scottrade online and pay NO FEES even if you only hold them for a day. I have been with Scottrade for over 2 years and they are great. Also, if you make a change before 3:00 pm on a day, you get that end of day's price! Consequently, Profunds even has Bear market inverse leveraged funds that trade the same way. So if you go into a long term bear market, you can make money. You could definately use your system, acheive nice returns and lessen your risk. Check out Profunds.com and Scottrade, a great combo!
Joel
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Thanks I'll do that. My account is with Scottrade. Not doing to well with my individuals right now. Hopefully it will turn around when the market comes back up. An inverse fund would be nice, do they have monetary restrictions? I mentioned RYVNX, which follow the inverse of the NASDAQ, to Rolo and he informed me you have to invest $50000 minimum. Don't quite have that much yet.:X
Also, I have decided to adjust my "buy" and "sell" signals a little bit. I told you that I typically only carry out my numbers to one decimal place. After looking at past prices and transactions, I believe I will carry the prices to two decimal places and "buy" and "sell" when the stock price is within .05 of my signal.
For example, if my "buy" signal is $12.68, I would "buy" when the price of the fund is within $12.63 - $12.73. (12.68 +- .05) Occasionally the price will not drop exactly to the moving average price. On Feb 04, 2004 the S fund fell to $12.69 and the price of our "buy" signal was $12.68. I was only carrying my prices one decimal place, 12.6, so I bought. But if you were waiting for $12.68, you would missed the boat and not made a 4.16% profit in 5 days! Just a little "tweek".
Good Luck,
Mike
Oh by the way, the fund allocation is just a "personal" choice at the time. Which ever funds are performing the best is what I will get into. Since we can gain more in the S and I, I'll probably go 50 % S and 50% I. But, the S fund has dropped the most so it stands to gain the most back. We'll see.
Thanks I'll do that. My account is with Scottrade. Not doing to well with my individuals right now. Hopefully it will turn around when the market comes back up. An inverse fund would be nice, do they have monetary restrictions? I mentioned RYVNX, which follow the inverse of the NASDAQ, to Rolo and he informed me you have to invest $50000 minimum. Don't quite have that much yet.:X
Also, I have decided to adjust my "buy" and "sell" signals a little bit. I told you that I typically only carry out my numbers to one decimal place. After looking at past prices and transactions, I believe I will carry the prices to two decimal places and "buy" and "sell" when the stock price is within .05 of my signal.
For example, if my "buy" signal is $12.68, I would "buy" when the price of the fund is within $12.63 - $12.73. (12.68 +- .05) Occasionally the price will not drop exactly to the moving average price. On Feb 04, 2004 the S fund fell to $12.69 and the price of our "buy" signal was $12.68. I was only carrying my prices one decimal place, 12.6, so I bought. But if you were waiting for $12.68, you would missed the boat and not made a 4.16% profit in 5 days! Just a little "tweek".
Good Luck,
Mike
Oh by the way, the fund allocation is just a "personal" choice at the time. Which ever funds are performing the best is what I will get into. Since we can gain more in the S and I, I'll probably go 50 % S and 50% I. But, the S fund has dropped the most so it stands to gain the most back. We'll see.
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What are your feelings on Krispy Kreme(KKD) Rolo? I'm thinking they may make a comeback. At least to about $25 a share.
What are your feelings on Krispy Kreme(KKD) Rolo? I'm thinking they may make a comeback. At least to about $25 a share.
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LOL
LOL
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We currently have a "buy" signal for the I fund at $12.96 per share. However, since the S fund is standing at $12.31 which is 37 cents below it's 63 day- moving-average, I'm going to make a move to 100% S fund this morning because it has the most to gain back.
Good luck.
Mike
We currently have a "buy" signal for the I fund at $12.96 per share. However, since the S fund is standing at $12.31 which is 37 cents below it's 63 day- moving-average, I'm going to make a move to 100% S fund this morning because it has the most to gain back.
Good luck.
Mike
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jgpalmerdds wrote:
Mike
jgpalmerdds wrote:
Thanks for the Profunds info Joel! It's great having a fund that tracks the inverse of the major indices. Should make for bigger profits in my personal Scottrade account. I only which our TSP plan had inverse funds.
Mike
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tsptalk wrote:
KKD's chart looks good over the last week...it had quite the insta-correction a couple of months ago like so many had. I remember that it was quite the rage last year. I'll have to look at the fundamentals to see if it is something I would want to buy for value. If its fundamentals are strong, the beaten-down price may make it an attractive buy. The thing is, many stocks will be like that and we want to pick only the best of them.
tsptalk wrote:
hahaha! That is so cheesy, one cannot help but love it.
KKD's chart looks good over the last week...it had quite the insta-correction a couple of months ago like so many had. I remember that it was quite the rage last year. I'll have to look at the fundamentals to see if it is something I would want to buy for value. If its fundamentals are strong, the beaten-down price may make it an attractive buy. The thing is, many stocks will be like that and we want to pick only the best of them.
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KKD is up again today, :^
KKD is up again today, :^
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By the way, the timing service that I am in has us in all these inverse funds (if you choose the most aggressive strategy) If you don't want to be aggressive, you stay on the sidelines. It has been the same since 4/30/04 (short or out, that is) Personally, there has been about a 10% swing that I really did not take advantage of. In other words, in the middle of May, I was down about 11-13%, short with margin. Now, I am up about 4-5%, short with margin. Fortunately, I stayed in the whole time. But I am wondering if there was any way to take advantage of those short spurts either way without driving myself crazy.
How do you feel about a strategy of getting in a fund when it is above it's 10 day average and out (or inverse) when it is below? I back tested this for the first 7 months of the year. I'm talking about personal funds here, where you can make the call at 2:59 pm and get that days price. Backtesting the Russell 2000, long only with this was about 20%, the Nasdaq 100 was about the same. If you got into the inverse it would even be better. I would simplfy it and only choose one, or maybe just two of the indexes to do this. Also, there would be no fees for this as long as I stayed within the Profunds, Rydex, or Potomac groups. It would be a little harder with the TSP stuff since the day lag, and I can't ever seem to look at the price before noon. I think I'm going to try this 10 day strategy, and I have dumped the timing service for now ($29.95/month)
Right now, all TSP stock funds are below the 10 day average, as well as the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, and S/P 500. That is why I'm shorting the indexes (with Margin, of course) I'm a little nervous about being in C and S right now. Later,
Joel
By the way, the timing service that I am in has us in all these inverse funds (if you choose the most aggressive strategy) If you don't want to be aggressive, you stay on the sidelines. It has been the same since 4/30/04 (short or out, that is) Personally, there has been about a 10% swing that I really did not take advantage of. In other words, in the middle of May, I was down about 11-13%, short with margin. Now, I am up about 4-5%, short with margin. Fortunately, I stayed in the whole time. But I am wondering if there was any way to take advantage of those short spurts either way without driving myself crazy.
How do you feel about a strategy of getting in a fund when it is above it's 10 day average and out (or inverse) when it is below? I back tested this for the first 7 months of the year. I'm talking about personal funds here, where you can make the call at 2:59 pm and get that days price. Backtesting the Russell 2000, long only with this was about 20%, the Nasdaq 100 was about the same. If you got into the inverse it would even be better. I would simplfy it and only choose one, or maybe just two of the indexes to do this. Also, there would be no fees for this as long as I stayed within the Profunds, Rydex, or Potomac groups. It would be a little harder with the TSP stuff since the day lag, and I can't ever seem to look at the price before noon. I think I'm going to try this 10 day strategy, and I have dumped the timing service for now ($29.95/month)
Right now, all TSP stock funds are below the 10 day average, as well as the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, and S/P 500. That is why I'm shorting the indexes (with Margin, of course) I'm a little nervous about being in C and S right now. Later,
Joel
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As far as the minimal dollar amounts per Profund. I know some of them have large $ figures but that is bunk. I have gotten in with a lot less. Sometimes the Scottrade people call me and mention that to me, and most of the time they put it through. The Scottrade people tell me that it is up to the Profunds people at the other end, maybe on their mood for the day. For instance, right now, in my kids college funds, I have about $1500 invested each in the double inverse Russell 2000, double inverse Nasdaq 100, double inverse S/P 500. Check out the minimum invest $ and you will see that they are listed as a lot more. Just ignore the minimums and trade and see what happens. I hope that this helps.
Joel
As far as the minimal dollar amounts per Profund. I know some of them have large $ figures but that is bunk. I have gotten in with a lot less. Sometimes the Scottrade people call me and mention that to me, and most of the time they put it through. The Scottrade people tell me that it is up to the Profunds people at the other end, maybe on their mood for the day. For instance, right now, in my kids college funds, I have about $1500 invested each in the double inverse Russell 2000, double inverse Nasdaq 100, double inverse S/P 500. Check out the minimum invest $ and you will see that they are listed as a lot more. Just ignore the minimums and trade and see what happens. I hope that this helps.
Joel
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Didn't realize they had minimum requirements. Hmmmm, guess I'll take your advice and try anyway. Right now, if I had been 100% invested in only the S fund for the year, with my system I'd be up 15%. If I was invested in the 2X ultrafund, it might be 30%! And, if I had gotten into the 2X inverse ultrafund instead of having to go the G fund when I was "out", who knows what it would be up now. Very exciting. Hope they let me trade with my measly monies.
Didn't realize they had minimum requirements. Hmmmm, guess I'll take your advice and try anyway. Right now, if I had been 100% invested in only the S fund for the year, with my system I'd be up 15%. If I was invested in the 2X ultrafund, it might be 30%! And, if I had gotten into the 2X inverse ultrafund instead of having to go the G fund when I was "out", who knows what it would be up now. Very exciting. Hope they let me trade with my measly monies.
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This is written in mlk_man's account forum:
mlk_man wrote:
I was able tosalvage my S fund by buying it at 12.18 with half my savings (took it out of C fund), thus bringing my S fund return for the same time frame to +.88%.
So you can still see that my system easily beats buy and hold strategies. Also remember that the S fund has a long way to come back up before I "sell" so I'm expecting even bigger gains when all is said and done. This includes the other two funds because if you had bought them, you'd still be hanging onto them. :^
This is written in mlk_man's account forum:
mlk_man wrote:
http://www.fedsmith.com just posted the fund returns for the period Jun 25th, 2004 to Aug 2nd, 2004. C fund is -2.26%, S fund is -4.72%, and I fund is -3.41%. If you had followed my system, your returns would be C fund +0.5%, S fund-0.95%, and I fund +1.16%.
I was able tosalvage my S fund by buying it at 12.18 with half my savings (took it out of C fund), thus bringing my S fund return for the same time frame to +.88%.
So you can still see that my system easily beats buy and hold strategies. Also remember that the S fund has a long way to come back up before I "sell" so I'm expecting even bigger gains when all is said and done. This includes the other two funds because if you had bought them, you'd still be hanging onto them. :^
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Really jumpy today.
Really jumpy today.
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I'm actually thinking of getting out of S for either Friday or Monday. Greenspan meets again Tuesday so probably get another rate hike then which isn't good for the S fund. Probably go either C or I. C most likely. Appears as though S maybe consiladating for a lower average price. We'll see tomorrow.
I'm actually thinking of getting out of S for either Friday or Monday. Greenspan meets again Tuesday so probably get another rate hike then which isn't good for the S fund. Probably go either C or I. C most likely. Appears as though S maybe consiladating for a lower average price. We'll see tomorrow.
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